中国冰冻圈水文未来变化及其对干旱区水安全的影响

丁永建, 赵求东, 吴锦奎, 张世强, 王生霞, 苌亚平, 李向应, 上官冬辉, 韩海东, 秦甲, 韩添丁

The future changes of Chinese cryospheric hydrology and their impacts on water security in arid areas

Yongjian DING, Qiudong ZHAO, Jinkui WU, Shiqiang ZHANG, Shengxia WANG, Yaping CHANG, Xiangying LI, Donghui SHANGGUAN, Haidong HAN, Jia QIN, Tianding HAN

表1 温升2 ℃情景下中国干旱区若干河流冰川融水与出山径流的变化

Table 1 The possible change of the glacier meltwater and mountain runoff of some rivers in Chinese arid areas under 2 ℃ warming scenario

流域 冰川面积变化/% 冰川径流变化/% 总径流变化/% 库车河 -33.4 -38.8 -8.5 木扎尔特河 -13.6 +9.8 +13.6 呼图壁河 -24.1 -18.9 +19.2 玛纳斯河 -22.7 +5.2 +35.3 黑河 -100.0 -100.0 -5.6 疏勒河 -46.6 -22.2 +25.1 黄河源 -25.2 -18.5 +16.7 长江源 -32.2 -8.5 +37.9 澜沧江源 -61.5 -57.9 +27.3 怒江源 -49.6 -49.1 +18.2