青藏高原气候变化若干前沿科学问题
游庆龙,康世昌,李剑东,陈德亮,翟盘茂,吉振明

Several research frontiers of climate change over the Tibetan Plateau
Qinglong YOU,Shichang KANG,Jiandong LI,Deliang CHEN,Panmao ZHAI,Zhenming JI
图6 历史(Historical)与未来RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下CMIP5模式模拟的多模式集合平均(MMEM)的全球平均(a)和高原平均(b)1850—2100年的平均地表气温序列,以及平均地表气温首次达到或超过工业革命前(1850—1900)1.5 ℃、2.0 ℃和3.0 ℃的年份38
Fig.6 Global-averaged (a) and Tibetan Plateau-averaged (b) surface annual mean temperature during 1850—2100 from the multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) of the CMIP5 model simulations under the historical run, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Years in the MMEM at which the surface annual mean temperature reaches or exceeds 1.5 ℃、2.0 ℃ and 3.0 ℃ above pre-industrial levels (1850—1900) for the first time are presented38