第三极地区冰川径流研究进展
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刘虎, 王磊
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A review of glacier runoff studies in the Third Pole region
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Hu LIU, Lei WANG
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表3 第三极地区不同流域冰川径流的未来变化研究总结
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Table 3 Summary of the researches of future changes in glacier runoff in different basins on the Third Pole
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流域 | 出水口 | 流域面积/km2 | 冰川覆盖比/% | 水文模型 | 冰川径流占比/% | 模式对比计划 | 气候情景 | 冰川径流拐点出现时间段 |
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印度河 | 全流域[105] | 1 139 075 | 2.4 | GloGEM | — | CMIP5 | RCP2.6 | 2020s | RCP4.5 | 2040s | RCP8.5 | 2060s | >2 000 m[53] | 402 314 | 5.5 | SRM | — | CMIP4 | A1B SRES | 2050s前 | >2 000 m[26] | 473 494 | 6.3 | SPHY | 5.1 | CMIP6 | dTdP | 2070s | Baltoro[58] | 1 415 | 48.0 | TOPKAPI | 39.0 | CMIP5 | RCP4.5 | 2030s | RCP8.5 | 2060s | 塔里木河 | 全流域[105] | 1 051 731 | 2.3 | GloGEM | — | CMIP5 | RCP2.6 | 2030s | RCP4.5 | 2050s | RCP8.5 | 2060s | 西部流域(>2 000 m)[26] | 481 481 | 5.8 | SPHY | 5.8 | CMIP6 | dTdP | 2100s后 | 东部流域(>2 000 m)[26] | 600 182 | 0.9 | SPHY | 1.1 | CMIP6 | dTdP | 2050s | 阿姆河 | >2 000 m[26] | 268 280 | 4.4 | SPHY | 4.4 | CMIP6 | dTdP | 2060s | 锡尔河 | >2 000 m[26] | 172 704 | 1.7 | SPHY | 1.3 | CMIP6 | dTdP | 2040s |
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