基于BMA多模型组合的疏勒河径流预测研究

周婷, 温小虎, 冯起, 尹振良, 杨林山

Study on runoff prediction of Shule River based on BMA multi-model combination

Ting ZHOU, Xiaohu WEN, Qi FENG, Zhenliang YIN, Linshan YANG

表6 BMA和组成它的3个模型的预测值在3个不同流量等级的统计结果

Table 6 Statistical results of BMA and the forecast values of the three models that comprised it at three different flow levels

时间 指标 模型 训练期 测试期 高水 中水 低水 高水 中水 低水 t+1 R ELM 0.741 0.930 0.779 0.781 0.952 0.842 SVM 0.830 0.935 0.764 0.781 0.946 0.838 MARS 0.750 0.924 0.766 0.689 0.944 0.817 BMA 0.835 0.940 0.765 0.949 0.958 0.962 NSE ELM 0.425 0.857 0.561 0.506 0.894 0.671 SVM 0.625 0.874 0.584 0.645 0.874 0.694 MARS 0.412 0.851 0.411 0.033 0.887 0.667 BMA 0.835 0.941 0.769 0.523 0.891 0.832 RMSE/（m3·s-1） ELM 36.657 9.659 1.971 40.675 9.319 2.126 SVM 30.624 8.796 2.228 1.964 18.664 21.803 MARS 34.611 9.897 2.021 46.892 9.368 2.210 BMA 28.506 8.312 1.987 38.659 9.021 2.012 t+3 R ELM 0.359 0.856 0.632 0.501 0.879 0.701 SVM 0.944 0.843 0.800 0.811 0.870 0.899 MARS 0.465 0.856 0.626 0.236 0.887 0.701 BMA 0.459 0.891 0.834 0.478 0.871 0.676 NSE ELM 0.109 0.637 0.122 0.234 0.729 0.357 SVM 0.718 0.615 0.335 0.656 0.446 0.647 MARS 0.171 0.644 0.345 0.036 0.693 0.443 BMA 0.172 0.670 0.405 0.228 0.729 0.375 RMSE/（m3·s-1） ELM 64.431 18.944 3.381 65.412 17.287 3.966 SVM 20.648 25.508 23.309 3.955 31.584 24.800 MARS 59.235 18.651 3.231 82.461 18.015 4.012 BMA 58.375 17.998 3.114 62.357 16.986 3.554 t+5 R ELM 0.321 0.798 0.556 0.367 0.848 0.642 SVM 0.285 0.786 0.513 0.321 0.855 0.577 MARS 0.315 0.801 0.549 0.235 0.850 0.642 BMA 0.326 0.812 0.561 0.392 0.862 0.621 NSE ELM 0.101 0.534 0.288 0.152 0.656 0.161 SVM 0.081 0.554 0.263 0.103 0.652 0.163 MARS 0.111 0.532 0.279 0.059 0.641 0.375 BMA 0.126 0.611 0.306 0.158 0.734 0.191 RMSE/（m3·s-1） ELM 70.603 22.687 4.302 76.542 21.015 4.736 SVM 80.281 22.225 1.146 98.263 21.808 5.121 MARS 69.375 22.325 4.261 92.162 19.663 5.012 BMA 70.501 17.865 3.996 75.826 15.568 4.346 t+7 R ELM 0.271 0.752 0.365 0.278 0.823 0.601 SVM 0.310 0.733 0.528 0.237 0.812 0.599 MARS 0.315 0.755 0.532 0.316 0.757 0.534 BMA 0.331 0.864 0.641 0.290 0.827 0.610 NSE ELM -2.312 0.494 0.012 -1.013 0.819 0.606 SVM -3.894 0.470 -1.436 -2.060 0.655 -0.084 MARS -2.892 0.452 0.286 -0.401 0.581 0.305 BMA -2.007 0.534 0.108 -1.397 0.581 0.320 RMSE/（m3·s-1） ELM 74.316 22.732 4.301 85.671 22.125 5.046 SVM 82.903 24.524 4.071 106.930 24.187 4.855 MARS 73.015 23.752 4.406 95.587 20.989 5.405 BMA 72.309 20.067 4.112 84.032 18.032 5.062