艾比湖流域1957-2013年潜在蒸散、气温、降水变化特征分析

doi:10.7522/j.isnn.1000-0240.2016.0008

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 使用1957-2013年艾比湖流域6个气象站点的平均大气压、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、平均相对湿度、平均风速、日照百分率以及降水量资料,通过Penman-Monteith方程计算出各个站的月和年潜在蒸散量.利用线性倾向估计、累积距平法和Mann-Kendall法分析了该流域近57年的潜在蒸散量、气温及降水量变化特征.结果表明:近57年来艾比湖流域年潜在蒸散量以-25.05mm·(10a)^-1的速度呈下降趋势.近7年的平均潜在蒸散量与过去50年相比较偏少77.36mm.年平均气温以0.33℃·(10a)^-1的速度上升.近7年的平均气温比过去50年的平均气温增加了1℃.年降水量以7.97mm·(10a)^-1的速度增多.近7年的平均降水量与过去50年的平均降水量相比增多32.45mm.

关键词: 艾比湖流域, Penman-Monteith方程, 潜在蒸散量, 气温, 降水量

Abstract: Meteorological data (average atmosphere pressure, average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, average relative humidity, average wind speed, percentage of sunshine and precipitation) from 1957-2013 were collected from six weather stations in Ebinur Lake basin. Monthly and annual potential evapotranspiration were calculated by Penman-Monteith model. The linear regression, cumulative anomaly and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the characteristics of potential evapotranspiration, temperature and precipitation changes. The results show that the annual average potential evapotranspiration had decreased with a rate of 25.05 mm·(10a)^-1 during 1957-2013; the average potential evapotranspiration during the later seven years decreased 77.36 mm as compared with that in the former 50 years. Annual average temperature had increased with a rate of 0.33 ℃·(10a)^-1 during 1957-2013; the average temperature during the later seven years increased 1.0 ℃ as compared with that in the former 50 years. Annual precipitation had increased too, with an increasing rate of 7.97 mm·(10a)^-1, and average precipitation during the later seven years increased 32.45 mm as compared with that in the former 50 years.

Key words: Ebinur Lake basin, Penman-Monteith equation, potential evapotranspiration, air temperature, precipitation

中图分类号:

P467

热孜宛古丽·麦麦提依明, 杨建军, 刘巍. 艾比湖流域1957-2013年潜在蒸散、气温、降水变化特征分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(1): 69-76.

Reziwanguli Maimaitiyiming, YANG Jianjun, LIU Wei. Changing characteristics of potential evapotranspiration, air temperature and precipitation in Ebinur Lake basin from 1957 to 2013[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2016, 38(1): 69-76.

参考文献

[1] Zhou Yanzhao, Zhou Jian, Li Yan, et al. Simulating the evapotranspiration with SEBAL and Modified SEBAL (M-SEBAL) models over the desert and oasis of the middle reaches of the Heihe River[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(6): 1526-1537.[周彦昭, 周剑, 李妍, 等. 利用SEBAL和改进的SEBAL模型估算黑河中游戈壁、绿洲的蒸散发[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(6): 1526-1537.]
[2] Tian Guoliang. Thermal remote sensing[M]. Beijing: Electronics Industry Press, 2006: 240-241.[田国良. 热红外遥感[M]. 北京: 电子工业出版社, 2006: 240-241.]
[3] Xu Zongxue. Hydrological model[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2009: 72-73.[徐宗学. 水文模型[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2009: 72-73.]
[4] Yang Lipu, Yang Chuande. Evolution of Ebinur Lake and water resources use off in its drainage area[J]. Arid Land Geography, 1990, 13(4): 1-14.[杨利普, 杨川德. 新疆艾比湖流域水资源利用与艾比湖演变[J]. 干旱区地理, 1990, 13(4): 1-14.]
[5] Qian Yibing, Wu Zhaoning, Jiang Jin, et al. Eco-environmental change and its impact factors in the Ebinur Lake catchments during the past 50 years[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2004, 26(1): 17-26.[钱亦兵, 吴兆宁, 蒋进, 等. 近50 a来艾比湖流域生态环境演变及其影响因素分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2004, 26(1): 17-26.]
[6] Ge Lima, He Qing, Leng Zhongxiao, et al. Analysis on characteristics of climate changes in Aibi Lake area in Xinjiang in recent 40 years[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2007, 21(1): 54-58.[格丽玛, 何清, 冷中笑, 等. 新疆艾比湖流域近40年来气候变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2007, 21(1): 54-58.]
[7] Chen Zhijun, Zhang Jing. Analysis on characteristics of temperature change in Ebinur Lake basin[J]. Water Resources Research, 2008, 29(4): 22-24.[陈志军, 张晶. 艾比湖流域气温变化基本特征分析[J]. 水资源研究, 2008, 29(4): 22-24.]
[8] Si Guiqin, Liu Zhihui. Analysis on the change of temperature, precipitation and run off in Jinghe, Xinjiang during the recent 51 years[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2010, 47(9): 1792-1796.[司桂琴, 刘志辉. 新疆精河气温、降水与径流量近51 a变化分析[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2010, 47(9): 1792-1796.]
[9] Hu Jiangling, Wu Shengli, Jin Hailong, et al. Precipitation in Aibi Lake basin of Xinjiang from 1961 to 2008[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2010, 24(9): 94-99.[胡江玲, 武胜利, 金海龙, 等. 艾比湖流域近48年来降水变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2010, 24(9): 94-99.]
[10] Zhang Xiaolong. Climatic variation and run off response in Ebinur Lake catchment[J]. Journal of Salt Lack Research, 2011, 19(2): 9-11.[张小龙. 艾比湖流域气候变化及其径流响应[J]. 盐湖研究, 2011, 19(2): 9-11.]
[11] Guo Pengcheng, Bao Anming, Chen Xi, et al. Analysis on climatic change trend of cold/warm seasonal characteristics in Ebinur Lake basin from 1960 to 2006[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2012, 27(1): 132-142.[郭鹏程, 包安明, 陈曦, 等. 1960-2006年艾比湖流域冷暖季气候状况分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2012, 27(1): 132-142.]
[12] Huang Ruoxing. Analysis on precipitation change trend in Boulder Tara River basin in Xinjiang in recent 50 years[J]. Heilongjiang Science and Technology of Water Conservancy, 2013, 41(8): 42-44.[黄若行. 新疆博尔塔拉河流域近50年来降水变化趋势分析[J]. 黑龙江水利科技, 2013, 41(8): 42-44.]
[13] Pu Zongchao, Zhang Sahnqing, Li Jinglin, et al. Change characteristics of reference crop evapotranspiration in Ürümqi River basin[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2008, 2(1): 41-45.[普宗朝, 张山清, 李景林, 等. 乌鲁木齐河流域参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2008, 2(1): 41-45.]
[14] Wu Xuejiao, Zhou Jian, Li Yan, et al. Estimating the evapotranspiration in the middle reaches of the Heihe River by SEBS model based on the eddy covariance system[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(6): 1538-1547.[吴雪娇, 周剑, 李妍, 等. 基于涡动相关仪验证的SEBS模型对黑河中游地表蒸散发的估算研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(6): 1538-1547.]
[15] Wang Heling, Zhang Huiguo, Qin Lu, et al. The characteristics of the spatial distribution of soil organic matter and factors influencing it in Ebinur Lake basin of Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2012, 32(16): 4969-4980.[王合玲, 张辉国, 秦璐, 等. 新疆艾比湖流域土壤有机质的空间分布特征及其影响因素[J]. 生态学报, 2012, 32(16): 4969-4980.]
[16] Wei Fengying. Modern climatic statistical diagnosis and prediction technology[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2007: 37-43.[魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007: 37-43.]
[17] Zhang Lu, Zhou Yue. Mann-Kendall examination and application in the analysis of the time series for silt concentration in the river[J]. Subtropical Soil and Water Conservation, 2007, 29(4): 19-22.[张璐, 周跃. Mann-Kendall检验及其在河流悬沙浓度时间序列分析中的运用[J]. 亚热带水土保持, 2007, 29(4): 19-22.]
[18] Li Pengfei, Sun Xiaoming, Zhao Xinyi. Analysis of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in arid and semi arid area of China in recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2012, 26(7): 57-63.[李鹏飞, 孙小明, 赵昕奕. 近50年中国干旱半干旱地区降水量与潜在蒸散量分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2012, 26(7): 57-63.]
[19] Yang Zhenchang, Li Yulin, Cui Duo, et al.Changes of main climatic parameters and potential evapotransipiration in typical semi-arid sandy lands of northern china during 1951-2005[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2012, 32(5): 1384-1392.[杨振常, 李玉霖, 崔夺, 等. 半干旱典型沙区1951-2005年主要气象要素及潜在蒸散量的变化趋势研究[J]. 中国沙漠, 2012, 32(5): 1384-1392.]
[20] Ren Guoyu, Guo Jun, Xu Mingzhi, et al.Climate changes of Chinese mainland over the past half century[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2005, 63(6): 942-956.[任国玉, 郭军, 徐铭志, 等. 近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J]. 气象学报, 2005, 63(6): 942-956.]
[21] Jiang Yuan'an, Liu Jing, Shao Weiling, et al. Climatic characteristics and historical evolution of precipitation in different time scales in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2013[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(6): 1363-1375.[江远安, 刘精, 邵伟玲, 等. 1961-2013年新疆不同时间尺度降水量的气候特征及其历史演变规律[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(6): 1363-1375.]
[22] Li Zhen, Jiang Fengqing. A study of abrupt climate change in Xinjiang region during 1961-2004[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2007, 29(3): 351-359.[李珍, 姜逢清. 1961-2004年新疆气候突变分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2007, 29(3): 351-359.]
[23] Zhang Jing. Analysis on characteristics of precipitation change in Ebinur Lake basin[J]. Water Resources Research, 2009, 30(3): 32-34.[张晶. 艾比湖流域降水变化特征分析[J]. 水资源研究, 2009, 30(3): 32-34.]
[24] Liu Shiwei, Zhou Huarong, Liang Xueqiong, et al. Trend analysis of precipitation and runoff in Ebinur Lake basin[J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2011, 25(5): 21-25.[刘世薇, 周华荣, 梁雪琼, 等. 艾比湖流域降水与径流变化特征分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2011, 25(5): 21-25.]
[25] Qin Xinfa, Liu Changming, Zeng Yan. Changes of pan evaporation in the recent 40 years over the Yellow River basin[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2003, 18(4): 437-442.[邱新法, 刘昌明, 曾燕. 黄河流域近40 a蒸发皿蒸发量的气候变化特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2003, 18(4): 437-442.]
[26] Zhu Wanwan, Shangguan Donghui, Guo Wanqin, et al. Glaciers in some representative basins in the middle of the Tianshan Mountains: change and response to climate change[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(6): 1376-1384.[朱弯弯, 上官冬辉, 郭万钦, 等. 天山中部典型流域冰川变化及对气候的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(6): 1376-1384.]
[27] Wang Qiong, Zhang Mingjun, Pan Shukun, et al. Spatiotemporal variation patterns of potential evapotranspiration in the Yangtze River basin of China[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2013, 32(5): 1292-1302.[王琼, 张明军, 潘淑坤, 等. 长江流域潜在蒸散量时空变化特征[J]. 生态学杂志, 2013, 32(5): 1292-1302.]
[28] Jiang Tao, Chen Yongqin, Chen Junhe, et al. Impact studies of future climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources in China[J]. Acta Scientlarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni, 2000, 39(S2): 151-157.[江涛, 陈永勤, 陈俊合, 等. 未来气候变化对我国水文水资源影响的研究[J]. 中山大学学报:自然科学版, 2000, 39(S2): 151-157.]