关键词: 冰洪, 天山北坡, 洪水成因, 气候变化, 冰洪, 天山北坡, 洪水成因, 气候变化

Abstract: Ice jam floods(ice flood) is a special winter floods of rivers in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang,its outbreak and occurred is mainly affected by air temperature,inverse temperate rang,the water storage of winter rivers,ice thickness and ice conditions,topography,river bend of the river and conditions,and other factors.Ice flood has characteristics of randomness,regularity,and not repeatable.Hydrograph of ice jam flood peak similar to the type of storm flood with steep up-downing characteristics,before the peak is steep and some relative ease.Take Sikeshu River Basin as an example for typical ice jam floods,we studies development and movement of ice jam flood caused and found that the floods have an "ice water drum opening" phenomenon.The Sikeshu River basin is a cold winter period during the 1970s to 1980s,lead to a maximum period of ice jam flood;ice jam flood recession trends since the 1990s as global warming,and other factors,show that climate warming on ice flood affected greatly.

Key words: ice jams flood, the north slope of Tianshan, causes, climate change, ice jams flood, the north slope of Tianshan, causes, climate change