定量反演降水及其在青藏高原东北边缘地区面雨量估算中的应用

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0071

冰川冻土 ›› 2013, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 621-629.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0071

定量反演降水及其在青藏高原东北边缘地区面雨量估算中的应用

张之贤^1,2,5, 张强^1,2,4, 赵庆云³, 张立阳², 蔡云腾⁶

1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室, 甘肃兰州 730020;
2. 兰州大学大气科学学院, 甘肃兰州 730000;
3. 兰州中心气象台, 甘肃兰州 730020;
4. 甘肃省气象局, 甘肃兰州 730020;
5. 93808部队, 甘肃榆中 730109;
6. 民航甘肃空管分局气象台, 甘肃兰州 730087

收稿日期:2012-08-26 修回日期:2013-01-04 出版日期:2013-07-25 发布日期:2013-07-25
作者简介:张之贤(1986- ),男,甘肃临泽人, 2013年在兰州大学获硕士学位, 现主要从事短期、短时预报方法和雷达气象学的研究. E-mail: zhangzxlz@qq.com
基金资助:
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306006)资助

Radar Quantitative Precipitation Inversion and Its Application to Areal Rainfall Estimation in the Northeastern Marginal Areas of the Tibetan Plateau

ZHANG Zhi-xian^1,2,5, ZHANG Qiang^1,2,4, ZHAO Qing-yun³, ZHANG Li-yang², CAI Yun-teng⁶

1. Gansu Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration, Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou Gansu 730020, China;
2. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China;
3. Center of Lanzhou Meteorological Observatory, Lanzhou Gansu 730020, China;
4. Gansu Meteorology Administration, Lanzhou Gansu 730020, China;
5. Unit of 93808 of People's Liberation Army, Yuzhong Gansu 730109, China;
6. Meteorological Observatory of Lanzhou Zhongchuan Airport, Civil Aviation Administration of China, Lanzhou Gansu 730087, China

Received:2012-08-26 Revised:2013-01-04 Online:2013-07-25 Published:2013-07-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

雷达-雨量计联合校准降水结合了雷达区域覆盖和雨量计单点精度高的优势, 利用雷达进行区域降水量估计是提高雷达应用能力的重要方向之一. 通过利用在青藏高原东北边坡地区的雷达回波-降水反演关系式, 对2012年5月10日的这一地区的一次区域性强降水过程进行反演比较, 并利用平均校准法、最优插值法和用卡尔曼滤波确定变分系数的变分-卡尔曼滤波进行空间校准. 结果表明:利用最优化法得到的本地降水反演关系式效果要明显优于其他波段或地域的固有关系式, 可以有效改变过低估计的状况; 变分-卡尔曼滤波由于考虑了雷达区域扫描的优势, 校准效果最好, 可以细致反映空间降水分布, 对降水预报、地质灾害预警等都有重要意义.通过建立多仰角多变量的降水关系式, 并进一步对反演结果采用有效的数学校正法可能会对空间面雨量估测取得更好的效果.

关键词: 最优化法, 平均校准法, 最优插值法, 变分-卡尔曼滤波, 区域强降水

Abstract:

Using radar-rain gauge to estimate areal rainfall is one of the major ways to improve the application of radar, which has great advantages in both the wide coverage of radar scanning and high single-point precision of rain-gauge. Based on the correlation with radar echo and rainfall in northeastern marginal areas of the Tibetan Plateau, a regional heavy rain case on May 10, 2012, is compared and spatial calibrated by using average calibration, optimal interpolation and variational-Kalman filter. It is found that the Z-I relationship with terrain is very different. Compared with precipitation observation, one can see that the local Z-I relationship by method of optimization is better than the others in diverse bands or districts, which effectively changes the situation of estimating lowly. In the mean time, the variational-Kalman filter method has the advantage of radar areal scan, which nicely reflected the spatial distribution of rainfall, able to calibrate well. In addition, it will be more effective in spatial precipitation estimation if take correct mathematical measures through the equations with multi-elevation angles and multi variable.

Key words: optimization method, average calibration method, optimum interpolation method, variational-Kalman filter method, regional heavy rainfall

中图分类号:

P412.25

张之贤, 张强, 赵庆云, 张立阳, 蔡云腾. 定量反演降水及其在青藏高原东北边缘地区面雨量估算中的应用[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(3): 621-629.

ZHANG Zhi-xian, ZHANG Qiang, ZHAO Qing-yun, ZHANG Li-yang, CAI Yun-teng. Radar Quantitative Precipitation Inversion and Its Application to Areal Rainfall Estimation in the Northeastern Marginal Areas of the Tibetan Plateau[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2013, 35(3): 621-629.

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定量反演降水及其在青藏高原东北边缘地区面雨量估算中的应用

Radar Quantitative Precipitation Inversion and Its Application to Areal Rainfall Estimation in the Northeastern Marginal Areas of the Tibetan Plateau

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