青海牧区干旱、 雪灾灾害损失综合评估技术研究

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0076

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用青海省20个草地生态监测站点2003—2011年监测的牧草、降水和相应年份的灾害监测调查资料分析表明, 青海高原草地牧草产量与降水相关密切, 8月末牧草产量与5—8月降水量相关系数均达到了0.001的相关性检验, 建立了不同草地类型不同月份牧草产量与降水量的最优模拟方程; 利用降水量距平百分率划分干旱等级, 建立了干旱等级与牧草和牲畜损失的对应关系, 实现了干旱和雪灾对草地、牲畜直接经济损失的定量评估. 对比分析了干旱和雪灾灾害对畜牧业造成损失比例, 将干旱和雪灾两个不同概念的灾害通过经济损失有机地联系起来, 直观地表明了在不同等级的灾害情况下, 损失造成的大小和比例. 结果表明: 随着灾害等级加重, 雪灾造成的损失比例增大, 在特大灾时, 雪灾造成的损失是旱灾损失的2.5倍.评估模型符合草地牧草生长规律和畜牧业生产特征, 实例评估符合畜牧业实际损失程度. 因此, 能够在降水偏少或偏多时对草地畜牧业评估服务中推广应用.

关键词: 青海省, 干旱, 雪灾, 损失评估, 草地类型, 直接经济损失

Abstract:

Analyzing the data of pasture, precipitation and disaster monitored and investigated in 20 grassland ecological monitoring sites in Qinghai Province, from 2003 to 2011, found that grassland herbage yield and precipitation have closely relation, e.g., between the forage yield at the end of August and the precipitation from May to August there is a good correlation, able to pass the 0.001 correlation test. Optimal simulation equations between forage yield of different grassland types and precipitation in different months are established. Drought levels are divided using average number of precipitation percentage. The relationship between drought level and forage and livestock losses is established. Then quantitative evaluation of direct economic loss of the grassland and livestock due to drought and snow disaster comes true. Comparing drought and snow disaster losses proportion of animal husbandry and relating drought with snow disaster through economic loss visually show the size and proportion caused by loss under different levels of disaster. With snow disaster level increasing, the loss proportion of snow disaster increases, and the snow disaster loss will be 2.5 times of drou-ght. The evaluation model is in line with grass pasture growth law and livestock production characteristics.The evaluation is accord with the actual loss of animal husbandry. Therefore, the evaluation can be used in the grassland animal husbandry assessment, no matter precipitation is more or less.

Key words: Qinghai Province, drought, snow disaster, loss evaluation, grassland types, direct economic loss

中图分类号:

S427

颜亮东, 李林, 刘义花. 青海牧区干旱、雪灾灾害损失综合评估技术研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(3): 662-680.

YAN Liang-dong, LI Lin, LIU Yi-hua. How to Comprehensively Evaluate the Economic Loss due to Drought and Snow Disaster in Qinghai Pastoral Areas[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2013, 35(3): 662-680.

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