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冰川冻土 ›› 2013, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 681-686.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0077

• 寒区科学与技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于灾损评估的青海省牧草干旱风险区划研究

刘义花1, 李林1, 颜亮东2, 李红梅1   

  1. 1. 青海省气候中心, 青海 西宁 810001;
    2. 青海省气象科学研究所, 青海 西宁 810001
  • 收稿日期:2013-01-07 修回日期:2013-04-21 出版日期:2013-07-25 发布日期:2013-07-25
  • 作者简介:刘义花(1979- ), 女, 青海平安人, 2007年在青海师范大学获硕士学位, 现主要从事气候应用服务. E-mail: yihualiu12@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用(重点)项目"牧区主要气象灾害风险评估与综合区划技术应用"(CAMGJ2012M55)资助

Risk Division of Pasture Drought in Qinghai Province Based on Loss Assessment

LIU Yi-hua1, LI Lin1, YAN Liang-dong2, LI Hong-mei1   

  1. 1. Qinghai Climate Center, Xining Qinghai 810001, China;
    2. Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Science, Xining Qinghai 810001, China
  • Received:2013-01-07 Revised:2013-04-21 Online:2013-07-25 Published:2013-07-25

摘要:

在全球气候变暖的大背景下, 表现出温度升高、 降水变率加大的区域响应, 造成极端天气气候事件、 气象灾害加剧. 基于青海省1961-2010年47个气象站和20个农气站的气象资料、 牧草的实际产量以及牧草的理论产量等资料, 采用相关分析、 线性回归等方法, 在分析致灾因子危险性、 牧草相对产量的基础上, 确定了青海省牧区牧草干旱风险评估的实际阈值.通过海拔、 经度、 纬度、 牧草旱灾发生频次的拟合方程, 结合GIS平台对青海省牧草干旱进行风险区划.结果表明: 青南牧区西部、 环青海湖地区、 柴达木盆地东部边缘地区、 祁连山地区为易受旱灾影响的特高风险或高风险区域;青南牧区西南部为中风险区域;低风险区域主要在青南牧区东南部, 区划结果基本上于历史旱灾的实际情况相吻合, 区划结果旨在为青海省牧区牧业良性发展提供科学依据.

关键词: 青海, 牧草, 干旱, 风险评估, 区划

Abstract:

Global warming results in temperature rise and precipitation variability become large. Thus, extreme weather events and meteorological disasters appear continuously. Based on the data from 47 meteorological stations and 20 agriculture representative stations, the actual and theory yields of pasture are analyzed in this paper by means of moving average and linear regression method, together with analyses of the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies and the disaster prevention ability. Division of drought disaster in Qinghai Province is discussed. It is found that 1) the highest-risk areas are mainly in the west of Qingnan Region, around the Qinghai Lake, Qaidam basin and Qilian Mountains; 2) the middle-risk areas are mainly in the southwest of Qingnan Region; 3) the lowest risk areas are mainly in the southeast of Qingnan Region. This division basically coincides with the history records of drought disaster, which is useful for prevention and mitigation of drought disaster in the province. Observations should be strengthened in the highest-risk and middle-risk areas so as to reduce drought disaster. The government should adopt good measures to disaster prevention and reduction. These are good for sustainable development of animal husbandry.

Key words: Qinghai Province, pasture, drought, risk assessment, division into districts

中图分类号: 

  • S423