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冰川冻土 ›› 2013, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 733-740.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0083

• 寒旱区水文水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

1957-2010年天山玛纳斯河流域夏季径流及洪水过程对极端气候事件的响应

邹全1, 王国亚2, 贺斌3, 沈永平4   

  1. 1. 新疆石河子水文水资源勘测局, 新疆 石河子 832000;
    2. 甘肃省科学院地质自然灾害防治研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000;
    3. 新疆阿勒泰水文水资源勘测局, 新疆 阿勒泰 836500;
    4. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2012-11-11 修回日期:2013-03-28 出版日期:2013-07-25 发布日期:2013-07-25
  • 通讯作者: 王国亚,E-mail:guoya@lzb.ac.cn E-mail:guoya@lzb.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:邹全(1972- ), 男, 新疆石河子人, 2005年毕业于南昌工程学院, 现为中国农业大学函授本科在读, 主要从事水文水资源基础勘测工作. E-mail:2310558687@qq.com
  • 基金资助:

    全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951402;2010CB951404);国家自然科学基金项目(41271083;41201062)资助

Responding of Summer Runoff and Flood Processes to Extreme Climate Events in Manas River Basin, Tianshan Mountains during 1957-2010

ZOU Quan1, WANG Guo-ya2, HE Bin3, SHEN Yong-ping4   

  1. 1. Shihezi Hydrology and Water Resources Reconnaissance Bureau, Shihezi Xinjiang 832000, China;
    2. Geologic Hazards Prevention Institute,Gansu Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China;
    3. Altay Hydrology and Water Resources Reconnaissance Bureau, Altay Xinjiang 836500, China;
    4. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China
  • Received:2012-11-11 Revised:2013-03-28 Online:2013-07-25 Published:2013-07-25

摘要:

利用玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特站1957-2010年的气温、 降水和洪水径流等资料, 分析了该流域自1957年以来的气候变化以及夏季洪水径流过程对极端气候的响应. 结果表明: 玛纳斯河流域自1957年以来平均气温呈明显的上升趋势, 1979年是年均温由下降趋势转为上升的转折点, 并且1978年之后极端高温天气增多, 主要出现在7月份.玛纳斯河年降水量总的变化趋势是波动减少的, 1986年以后降水有所增加, 但只是恢复到多年平均降水量水平的上下波动.降水主要集中在4-8月, 约占年降水量的70%.气温高的月份与降水量多的月份并不完全对应, 如5月份气温较低, 但降水较大; 7月气温最高, 但6月降水量最大; 8月气温较高, 但降水量较少.玛纳斯河年径流主要集中在6-9月, 4个月的总径流量约占全年总径流量的80%, 7月份径流量最大, 约占全年总径流量的28.8%.历年最大洪峰流量呈显著增加趋势, 1993年是最大洪峰流量由下降变为增多的转折点, 而1994-2010年最大洪峰流量基本保持在高位上下波动.最大15日洪量占年径流量的比例较大, 说明洪水过程持续时间较长, 汛期水量较为集中.最大洪峰流量出现时间基本都在7月和8月上旬.玛纳斯河夏季月径流与夏季月气温和降水的关系并不密切, 低度相关, 说明玛纳斯河流域自1993年以来夏季洪水频繁发生, 尤其超标准洪水次数增多、 量级增大主要是由于夏季极端高温和极端降水天气增多引起的.

关键词: 极端天气, 夏季洪水, 气候变化, 玛纳斯河流域

Abstract:

Based on the data of temperature, precipitation and runoff of the Kensiwate Hydrological Station, the climate changes and the processes of summer flood during the period of 1957-2010 under the background of Extreme Weather were analyzed. The results showed that the mean annual temperature is increasing obviously in recently 51 years. The turning point of the average annual temperature from downward trend to increase is in 1979. While the jump point of the average annual temperature rising is in 1989, and the extreme high temperature increased after 1978, mainly occurred in July. The trend of the annual precipitation is decreasing fluctuate at Manas River during 1957-2007. The precipitation has increased since 1986, but only restored to the average annual precipitation level. The precipitation mainly concentrated in April to August, and which accounted for about 70% of the annual precipitation. The months of the higher temperatures and more precipitation are not entirely consistent. Such as it is cold in May, but the precipitation is great; the highest temperature is in July, but the maximum precipitation is in June; it is hot in August but with less precipitation. The annual runoff mainly concentrated in June to September in Manas River, which accounted for 80% of the total annual runoff. The runoff in June is the maximum, accounted for around 28.8% of the total annual runoff. The maximum flood runoff is increasing significantly during 1957-2010. The turning point from decrease to increase is in 1993. While the maximum flood runoff during 1994-2010 remained at a high level fluctuate. The proportion of the maximum flood runoff on 15 successive days accounted for the annual runoff is 23.7%, and up to 35.04%, indicating longer duration flood and flood water is more concentrated. The maximum flood runoff usually occurred in July and early August. The summer runoff is low correlation with summer temperatures and precipitation, which indicated that the frequent occurrence of summer floods since 1993, especially the times and magnitude of the exceeding standard flood increased mainly due to the increased of the extreme high temperature and extreme precipitation in summer.

Key words: extreme weather, summer floods, climate change, Manas River

中图分类号: 

  • P339