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冰川冻土 ›› 2013, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 999-1006.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0112

• 寒旱区水文水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

气象极值变化及其导致的农业气象灾害趋势分析——以甘肃省为例

韩晖, 李耀辉   

  1. 中国气象局 兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局 干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730020
  • 收稿日期:2013-03-06 修回日期:2013-05-08 出版日期:2013-08-25 发布日期:2013-09-11
  • 作者简介:韩晖(1975-),男,湖北武汉人,助理研究员,2005年在北京师范大学获硕士学位,现主要从事气候变化及气象灾害相关研究.E-mail:hhsd@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006023);甘肃省气象局气象科研项目(2010-13)资助

Variations of Meteorological Element Extremes and Trend Analysis of the Consequent Agro-Meteorological Disasters:A Case Study in Gansu Province

HAN Hui, LI Yao-hui   

  1. Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province/Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou Gansu 730020, China
  • Received:2013-03-06 Revised:2013-05-08 Online:2013-08-25 Published:2013-09-11

摘要: 依据甘肃省62个气象站1960-2005年的地面气候资料, 分析农作物生育期(3-10月)内气象要素极值的变化趋势, 并用主成分分析方法研究了该变化对农业气象灾害发生趋势的影响.结果表明: 与温度相关的气象要素极值表现出了同平均气温类似的显著上升趋势,其中降水相关的气象要素极值变化说明甘肃省降水结构发生了改变, 极端性有所减弱;其他相关要素中, 最大风速存在明显下降趋势, 蒸发量呈下降趋势、日照时数呈上升趋势, 但都不够显著.大部分气象极值的变化与农业气象灾害的变化呈正相联系, 只有很少部分气象极值的变化与农业气象灾害的变化呈反相联系.综合分析这些气象极值在甘肃省范围内的变化趋势, 揭示出未来甘肃省干旱灾害倾向于加剧, 而洪涝灾害趋于减轻.

关键词: 气象极值变化, 甘肃省, 农业气象灾害, 趋势

Abstract: Based on the ground climatic data from 62 meteorological stations in Gansu Province from 1960 to 2005, the changing trends of meteorological element extreme (MEE) during crop growth period (from March to October) were analyzed, and the impacts of MEE on agro-meteorological disasters were discussed with principal component analysis. The results showed that those MEEs related to temperature have statistically significant trends just same as average air temperature;those MEEs related to precipitation have non-significant trends but show the precipitation structure in Gansu Province changing to less extremeness. The results also showed that the maximum wind speed descends significantly, the evaporation anomaly has a non-significant descending trend and the sunshine duration anomaly has a non-significant ascending trend. Results of the principal component analysis indicated that most of MEE changes are corresponding with the changes of agro-meteorological disasters and only a few of them are of reverse phase. Comprehensive analysis of the variations of the MEEs in Gansu Province reveals that drought disaster will exacerbate and flood disaster will decrease in the future.

Key words: variations of meteorological element extremes, Gansu Province, agro-meteorological disasters, trend

中图分类号: 

  • S42