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冰川冻土 ›› 2013, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 1077-1087.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0121

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国冰川脆弱性现状评价与未来预估

杨建平1,2, 李曼1, 杨岁桥1, 谭春萍1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000;
    2. 中国科学院 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2013-02-11 修回日期:2013-06-16 出版日期:2013-10-25 发布日期:2013-11-07
  • 作者简介:杨建平(1971-),女,山西方山人,副研究员,2006年在中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所获博士学位,现主要从事冰冻圈环境变化影响、脆弱性与适应方面的研究工作.E-mail:jianping@lzb.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41271088);国家重大科学研究计划项目(2013CBA01808) 资助

Vulnerability of the Glaciers to Climate Change in China:Current Situation and Evaluation

YANG Jian-ping1,2, LI Man1, YANG Sui-qiao1, TAN Chun-ping1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China
  • Received:2013-02-11 Revised:2013-06-16 Online:2013-10-25 Published:2013-11-07

摘要: 冰川的脆弱性是指冰川对气候变化的脆弱性.基于科学性与实际相结合的原则、全面性与主导性原则、可比性原则、可操作性原则, 以气候变化脆弱性的暴露度、敏感性与适应能力三要素为标准, 遴选构建了我国冰川脆弱性评价指标体系.使用中国1961-2007年594个站点的年平均气温和590个站点的年降水量资料、中国第一、二次冰川编目数据, 借助RS与GIS技术平台, 使用空间主成分方法, 构建了冰川脆弱性指数模型, 在区域尺度上综合评价了中国冰川脆弱性的现状.基于IPCC A1B气候情景下气温和降水量变化预估数值、21世纪冰川变化预估数据, 对2030年代和2050年代的冰川脆弱性进行了初步预估.依据自然分类法, 将冰川脆弱性分为潜在脆弱、轻度脆弱、中度脆弱、强度脆弱与极强度脆弱5个等级.结果表明: 从现状看, 中国冰川对气候变化很脆弱, 约92%的冰川作用区存在不同程度的脆弱性, 而且强度脆弱区和极强度脆弱区面积占研究区总面积的41%;情景和动态上, 2030年代和2050年代仍有约80%的冰川作用区存在不同程度的脆弱性, 但整体上冰川脆弱性呈减弱趋势, 局部地区冰川仍处于强度和极强度脆弱状态.冰川脆弱性是多因素综合影响的结果, 在现状情况下, 冰川脆弱程度主要取决于冰川的地形暴露和冰川对气候变化的敏感性;2030年代和2050年代除地形因素之外, 降水量变化上升成为冰川脆弱程度的关键影响因素.在未来气候持续变暖情况下, 冰川脆弱性不增反降, 冰川对气候变化的敏感性降低可能是主要原因.

关键词: 冰川, 气候变化, 脆弱性, 预估, 中国

Abstract: Glaciers are important water sources in China and adjoining countries, which have rapidly shrunken since the 1990s. Adaptation to the glacier shrink is imperative for these countries. It is important to improve our understanding of glacier vulnerability to climate change so that an adaptation strategy can be established. A glacier numerical model is developed by using spatial principle component analysis supported by remote sensing and geographical information system technologies. The model contains nine factors describing topography, climate and glacier characteristics. The vulnerability of glaciers to climate change is evaluated during the period of 1961-2007 on a regional scale. Based on the projection of air temperature and precipitation changes under the IPCC SERS A1B scenario and of glacier change in the 21st century, glacier vulnerability is estimated for the 2030s and the 2050s. The vulnerability is graded into five levels: potential, light, medial, heavy and extreme heavy, followed Natural Breaks Classification. The spatial distribution of glacier vulnerability and its temporal change in the 21st century for the SERS A1B scenario are analyzed and the factors influencing the vulnerability are discussed. The results show that mountain glaciers in China are very vulnerable to climate change, and the zones of heavy and extreme heavy levels accounted for 41% of the whole glaciated area for the period 1961-2007. This is mainly explained by topographical exposure and high sensitivity of glaciers to climate change. Trends of glacial vulnerability decline in the 2030s and 2050s, but in some regions glaciers are still quite vulnerable. For the 2030s and 2050s a change in precipitation is estimated to be a crucial factor, besides topographical factors.

Key words: glaciers, climate change, vulnerability, estimation, China

中图分类号: 

  • P343.6