关键词: 冰川, 气候变化, 脆弱性, 预估, 中国

Abstract: Glaciers are important water sources in China and adjoining countries, which have rapidly shrunken since the 1990s. Adaptation to the glacier shrink is imperative for these countries. It is important to improve our understanding of glacier vulnerability to climate change so that an adaptation strategy can be established. A glacier numerical model is developed by using spatial principle component analysis supported by remote sensing and geographical information system technologies. The model contains nine factors describing topography, climate and glacier characteristics. The vulnerability of glaciers to climate change is evaluated during the period of 1961-2007 on a regional scale. Based on the projection of air temperature and precipitation changes under the IPCC SERS A1B scenario and of glacier change in the 21st century, glacier vulnerability is estimated for the 2030s and the 2050s. The vulnerability is graded into five levels: potential, light, medial, heavy and extreme heavy, followed Natural Breaks Classification. The spatial distribution of glacier vulnerability and its temporal change in the 21st century for the SERS A1B scenario are analyzed and the factors influencing the vulnerability are discussed. The results show that mountain glaciers in China are very vulnerable to climate change, and the zones of heavy and extreme heavy levels accounted for 41% of the whole glaciated area for the period 1961-2007. This is mainly explained by topographical exposure and high sensitivity of glaciers to climate change. Trends of glacial vulnerability decline in the 2030s and 2050s, but in some regions glaciers are still quite vulnerable. For the 2030s and 2050s a change in precipitation is estimated to be a crucial factor, besides topographical factors.

Key words: glaciers, climate change, vulnerability, estimation, China