天山乌鲁木齐河上游径流极值变化分析研究

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0141

冰川冻土 ›› 2013, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 1248-1258.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0141

天山乌鲁木齐河上游径流极值变化分析研究

刘友存^1,2, 霍雪丽³, 郝永红¹, 焦克勤⁴, 韩添丁⁴, 刘彦⁵, 刘志方⁵, 刘灿³

1. 天津师范大学天津市水资源与环境重点实验室, 天津 300387;
2. 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038;
3. 天津师范大学城市与环境学院, 天津 300387;
4. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 甘肃兰州 730000;
5. 天津师范大学数学科学学院, 天津 300387

收稿日期:2013-02-17 修回日期:2013-05-13 出版日期:2013-10-25 发布日期:2013-11-07
作者简介:刘友存(1977-),男,河北迁安人,2008年在巴黎地球物理研究院获博士学位,现主要从事水文水资源、河流侵蚀沉积过程的研究.E-mail:liuyoucun@gmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41001006;41271035;41030527;41271083;41272245);中国博士后科学基金项目(20100480444);流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放基金(IWHR-SKL-201107);天津师范大学人才引进基金项目(5RL085)资助

A Study of the Variation of Extreme Runoff in the Upstream of the Ürümqi River, Tianshan Mountains

LIU You-cun^1,2, HUO Xue-li³, HAO Yong-hong¹, JIAO Ke-qin⁴, HAN Tian-ding⁴, LIU Yan⁵, LIU Zhi-fang⁵, LIU Can³

1. Tianjin Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;
3. College of Urban and Environmental Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China;
4. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China;
5. College of Mathematical Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China

Received:2013-02-17 Revised:2013-05-13 Online:2013-10-25 Published:2013-11-07
Contact: 郝永红,E-mail:haoyh@sxu.edu.cn E-mail:haoyh@sxu.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以天山乌鲁木齐河上游作为研究对象, 结合乌鲁木齐河上游近50 a的实测月均径流变化资料, 对未来的月均径流进行了预测. 基于对重现水平的95%置信区间进行估计的结果表明, 乌鲁木齐河上游重现期为10 a、25 a、50 a和100 a的月均径流量极大值分别约为35.4 m³·s^-1、39.9 m³·s^-1、43.2 m³·s^-1和46.3 m³·s^-1;重现期为10 a、25 a、50 a和100 a的月均径流量极小值分别约为0.60 m³·s^-1、0.43 m³·s^-1、0.30 m³·s^-1和0.18 m³·s^-1. 在当前气候变化背景下, 乌鲁木齐河上游在2058年前后枯水期时可能发生断流现象. 该研究对乌鲁木齐河径流变化预测具有重要意义.

关键词: 广义Pareto分布, 重现期, 径流变化, 径流极值, 乌鲁木齐河

Abstract: Extreme value theory is the major means to deal with extreme events of small probability, which has been widely used in hydrology. In this paper, based on the theory and method of generalized Pareto distribution model, the extreme runoff in the upstream of the Ürümqi River, Tianshan Mountains was predicated. The results of different average runoff return levels, which contain 95% confidence intervals, indicate that the maximum average monthly runoff corresponding to 10 a, 25 a, 50 a and 100 a return period is 35.4 m³·s^-1, 39.9 m³·s^-1, 43.2 m³·s^-1 and 46.3 m³·s^-1, respectively, and the minimum average monthly runoff corresponding to 10 a, 25 a, 50 a and 100 a return period is 0.60 m³·s^-1, 0.43 m³·s^-1, 0.30 m³·s^-1 and 0.18 m³·s^-1, respectively, in the upstream of the Ürümqi River. Regarding the impact of present climate change, it is expected that the upstream of the river will dry up in the dry season around 2058. The results are only from the statistically significant associations. Of course, there are substantial uncertainties about the extreme runoff prediction.

Key words: generalized Pareto distribution, return period, variation of runoff, extreme runoff, Ürümqi River

中图分类号:

P333

刘友存, 霍雪丽, 郝永红, 焦克勤, 韩添丁, 刘彦, 刘志方, 刘灿. 天山乌鲁木齐河上游径流极值变化分析研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(5): 1248-1258.

LIU You-cun, HUO Xue-li, HAO Yong-hong, JIAO Ke-qin, HAN Tian-ding, LIU Yan, LIU Zhi-fang, LIU Can. A Study of the Variation of Extreme Runoff in the Upstream of the Ürümqi River, Tianshan Mountains[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2013, 35(5): 1248-1258.

参考文献

[1] Burns D A, Klaus J, McHale M R. Recent climate trends and implications for water resources in the Catskill Mountain region, New York, USA[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2007, 336(1/2): 155-170.
[2] Shi Yafeng. Estimation of the water resources affected by climatic warming and glacier shrinkage before 2050 in west China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2001, 23(4): 333-341. [施雅风. 2050年前气候变暖冰川萎缩对水资源影响情景预估[J]. 冰川冻土, 2001, 23(4): 333-341.]
[3] Chen Yaning, Xu Zongxue. Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin[J]. Science in China (Series D: Earth Sciences), 2005, 48(1): 65-73.
[4] Han Tianding, Ding Yongjian, Jiao Keqin, et al. Analysis of the extremum of snow and glacier meltwater runoff at the headwaters of the Ürümqi River[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2005, 27(2): 276-281. [韩添丁, 丁永建, 焦克勤, 等. 天山乌鲁木齐河源冰雪径流的极值分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2005, 27(2): 276-281.]
[5] Chen Yaning, Xu Changchun, Yang Yuhui, et al. Hydrology and water resources variation and its responses to regional climate change in Xinjiang[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(11): 1331-1341. [陈亚宁, 徐长春, 杨余辉, 等. 新疆水文水资源变化及对区域气候变化的响应[J]. 地理学报, 2009, 64(11): 1331-1341.]
[6] Liu Youcun, Ye Baisheng, Métivier F, et al. Preliminary stu-dy on reaction of mountain runoff to climate change in Ürümqi River, China[C]//Proceedings of 2011 International Symposium on Water Resource and Environmental Protection, Vol. 3. Piscataway, NJ: IEEE Computer Society Press, 2011: 2350-2354.
[7] Ding Yongjian, Liu Shiyin, Liu Fengjing, et al. Advancement of cold-region hydrology studies over last the two decades in China-in memorial of outstanding cold-region hydrologist, Dr. Ye Baisheng, for his scientific achievements and innovative contributions[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(5): 1009-1022. [丁永建, 刘时银, 刘凤景, 等. 中国寒区水文学研究的新阶段——记我国杰出寒区水文学家叶柏生研究员的创新与贡献[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(5): 1009-1022.]
[8] Lan Yongchao, Zhong Yingjun, Wu Sufen, et al. Response of mountain runoff to climate change in representative rivers originated from the Tianshan Mountain[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2011, 31(1): 254-260. [蓝永超, 钟英君, 吴素芬, 等. 天山南、北坡典型河流出山径流对气候变化响应的分析对比[J]. 中国沙漠, 2011, 31(1): 254-260.]
[9] Dumas P, Hallegatte S, Quintana-Segui P, et al. The influence of climate change on flood risks in France-first estimates and uncertainty analysis[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2013, 13(3): 809-821.
[10] Core Writing Team, Pachauri R K, Reisinger A. Climate Cha-nge 2007: Synthesis Report: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and Ⅲ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R]. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, 2007.
[11] Huziy O, Sushama L, Khaliq M N, et al. Analysis of streamflow characteristics over Northeastern Canadian in a changing climate[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2013, 40(7/8): 1879-1901.
[12] Ding Yihui, Ren Guoyu, Shi Guangyu, et al. National assessment report of climate change (Ⅰ): Climate change in China and its future trend[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2006, 2(1): 3-8. [丁一汇, 任国玉, 石广玉, 等. 气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ): 中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(1): 3-8.]
[13] Shen Yongping. Tianshan—hot spot for researches of global climate change and water circulation[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2009, 31(4): 780. [沈永平. 中亚天山是全球气候变化和水循环变化的热点地区[J]. 冰川冻土, 2009, 31(4): 780.]
[14] Gao Xin, Ye Baisheng, Zhang Shiqiang, et al. Glacier runoff variation and its influence on river runoff during 1961-2006 in the Tarim River Basin, China[J]. Science China: Earth Sciences, 2010, 53(6): 880-891.
[15] Mao Weiyi, Fan Jing, Shen Yongping, et al. Variations of extreme flood of the rivers in Xinjiang region and some typical watersheds from Tianshan Mountains and their response to climate change in recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(5): 1037-1046. [毛炜峄, 樊静, 沈永平, 等. 近50 a来新疆区域与天山典型流域极端洪水变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(5): 1037-1046.]
[16] Shen Yongping, Su Hongchao, Wang Guoya, et al. The responses of glaciers and snow cover to climate change in Xinjiang (Ⅰ): Hydrological effects[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(3): 513-527. [沈永平, 苏宏超, 王国亚, 等. 新疆冰川、积雪对气候变化的响应(Ⅰ): 水文效应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(3): 513-527.]
[17] Ye Baisheng, Yang Daqing, Jiao Keqin, et al. The Ürümqi River source Glacier No. 1, Tianshan, China: Change over the past 45 years[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32(21), doi:10.1029/2005GL024178.
[18] Lan Yongchao, Zhong Yingjun, Wu Sufen, et al. Sensitivity of mountain runoff of rivers originated from the south slope and the north slope of the Tianshan Mountain to climate change[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2009, 27(6): 712-718. [蓝永超, 钟英君, 吴素芬, 等. 天山南、北坡河流出山径流对气候变化的敏感性分析[J]. 山地学报, 2009, 27(6): 712-718.]
[19] Liu Youcun, Métivier F, Gaillardet J, et al. Erosion rates deduced from seasonal mass balance along the upper Ürümqi River in Tianshan[J]. Solid Earth, 2011, 2(2): 283-301.
[20] Li Zhongqin, Wang Wenbin, Zhang Mingjun, et al. Observed changes in streamflow at the headwaters of the Ürümqi River, eastern Tianshan, central Asia[J]. Hydrology Processes, 2010, 24(2): 217-224.
[21] Jiao Keqin, Ye Baisheng, Han Tianding, et al. Response of runoff to climate change in the Glacier No. 1 at the headwater of Ürümqi River, Tianshan Mountains during 1980-2006[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2011, 33(3): 606-611. [焦克勤, 叶柏生, 韩添丁, 等. 天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川径流对气候变化的响应分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2011, 33(3): 606-611.]
[22] Yang Miao, Ye Baisheng, Peng Peihao, et al. A simulation of glacial runoff at headwaters of the Ürümqi River[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(1): 130-138. [杨淼, 叶柏生, 彭培好, 等. 天山乌鲁木齐河源区1号冰川径流模拟研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(1): 130-138.]
[23] Li Jiangfeng, Yuan Yujiang, You Xiyao. 360 years' runoff reconstruction in the Ürümqi River basin using tree rings[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 1997, 17(2): 131-137. [李江风, 袁玉江, 由希尧. 乌鲁木齐河山区流域360年径流量的重建[J]. 第四纪研究, 1997, 17(2): 131-137.]
[24] Zhang Jiebin. Analysis on flood frequency of Ürümqi River[J]. Arid Land Geography, 1997, 20(4): 1-10. [张捷斌. 乌鲁木齐河洪水频率分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 1997, 20(4): 1-10.]
[25] Zhang Xiangyun, Cheng Weihu. Statistical inference for binomial-generalized Pareto compound extreme value distribution model[J]. Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica, 2012, 35(3): 560-572. [张香云, 程维虎. 二项-广义Pareto复合极值分布模型的统计推断[J]. 应用数学学报, 2012, 35(3): 560-572.]
[26] Liu Youcun, Métivier F, Lajeunesse É, et al. Measuring bedload in gravel-bed mountain rivers: averaging methods and sampling strategies[J]. Geodinamica Acta, 2008, 21(1/2): 81-92.
[27] Cui Yuhuan, Ye Baisheng, Wang Jie, et al. The runoff simulations for the Glacier No. 1 hydrologic section at the headwaters of the Ürümqi River on the different timescales [J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2013, 27(7): 119-126. [崔玉环, 叶柏生, 王杰, 等. 乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川水文断面不同时间尺度径流估算[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2013, 27(7): 119-126.]
[28] Wu Sufen, Liu Zhihui, Han Ping, et al. Impact of climate change on water resources of the Ürümqi River basin[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2006, 28(5): 703-706. [吴素芬, 刘志辉, 韩萍, 等. 气候变化对乌鲁木齐河流域水资源的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2006, 28(5): 703-706.]
[29] Shi Daoji. Statistics of Extremes Method[M]. Tianjin: Tianjin Science & Technology Press, 2006. [史道济. 实用极值统计方法[M]. 天津: 天津科学技术出版社, 2006.]
[30] Coles S. An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values[M]. London: Springer-Verlag, 2001.
[31] Li Zhongqin, Li Kaiming, Wang Lin. Study on recent glacier changes and their impact on water resources in Xinjiang, northwestern China[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 2010, 30(1): 96-106. [李忠勤, 李开明, 王林. 新疆冰川近期变化及其对水资源的影响研究[J]. 第四纪研究, 2010, 30(1): 96-106.]
[32] Duan Keqin, Yao Tandong, Wang Ninglian, et al. Numerical simulation of Ürümqi Glacier No. 1 in the eastern Tianshan, central Asia from 2005 to 2070[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2012, 57(34): 4505-4509.

天山乌鲁木齐河上游径流极值变化分析研究

A Study of the Variation of Extreme Runoff in the Upstream of the Ürümqi River, Tianshan Mountains

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	岳晓英,李忠勤,王飞腾,李宏亮,沈思民. 天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川消融期反照率特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2021, 43(5): 1412-1423.
[2]	李宏亮, 王璞玉, 李忠勤, 王盼盼, 徐春海, 刘爽爽, 金爽, 张正勇, 徐丽萍. 基于多源数据的天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川变化研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2021, 43(4): 1018-1026.
[3]	何天豪, 高红凯, 李向应, 韩添丁, 贺志华, 张志才, 段峥, 刘敏, 丁永建. 水稳定同位素示踪的冰川流域水文模拟及不确定性研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2021, 43(4): 1130-1143.
[4]	高佳佳, 杜军. 雅鲁藏布江流域极端降水模拟及预估[J]. 冰川冻土, 2021, 43(2): 580-588.
[5]	李宏亮, 王璞玉, 李忠勤, 金爽, 徐春海, 梁鹏斌, 岳晓英, 羊旻. 天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川东支能量-物质平衡模拟研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2021, 43(1): 24-35.
[6]	胡弟弟, 康世昌, 许民. 1936—2017年北极勒拿河流域气候变化及其对径流的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2020, 42(1): 216-223.
[7]	贾玉峰, 李忠勤, 金爽, 徐春海, 张明军, 邓海军, 梁鹏斌, 刘爽爽. 1959-2017年天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川流域径流及其组分变化[J]. 冰川冻土, 2019, 41(6): 1302-1312.
[8]	曾兰华, 欧先交, 陈嵘, 赖忠平. 天山乌鲁木齐河源末次冰期冰川沉积光释光测年[J]. 冰川冻土, 2019, 41(4): 761-769.
[9]	刘燕, 刘友存, 焦克勤, 韩添丁, 边晓辉, 丁倩倩. 1990年以来天山乌鲁木齐河上游水资源研究进展[J]. 冰川冻土, 2019, 41(4): 958-967.
[10]	李开明, 钟晓菲, 姜烨, 李佳宁, 李林凤, 周平. 1961-2016年乌鲁木齐河流域气温和降水垂直梯度变化研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(3): 607-615.
[11]	甘薇薇, 范江琳, 肖天贵, 敬枫蓉, 詹兆渝, 汪丽. 四川省暴雨过程综合评估模型的研究及建立[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(6): 1336-1344.
[12]	程建忠, 陆志翔, 邹松兵, 程雯嘉. 黑河干流上中游径流变化及其原因分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(1): 123-129.
[13]	尤晓妮, 李忠勤, 王莉霞. 气象要素影响下雪冰离子淋溶过程研究——以乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川为例[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(2): 312-322.
[14]	陶玲, 顾燕玲, 郑晓吉, 关波, 董娟, 倪永清, 程国栋. 天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川融水可培养细菌生理生化特性及其系统发育[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(2): 511-521.
[15]	努尔兰·哈再孜, 沈永平, 马哈提·穆拉提别克. 气候变化对阿尔泰山乌伦古河流域径流过程的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(3): 699-705.