基于模糊综合评判的高原盆地城市水源地脆弱性评价

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0144

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 根据高原盆地城市水源地脆弱性内涵, 评价指标可量化性及不同水源地之间可比性, 选取了水源地水文气象、生态环境、水源污染和地表扰动状况4个方面14个指标, 构建了高原盆地城市水源地脆弱性指标体系.基于高原盆地城市水源地复杂性和指标评价标准界线的模糊性, 采用层次分析法确定指标权重, 应用模糊综合评判法建立评价模型, 运用所建立的评价模型对昆明市松华坝水源地脆弱性进行了评价.结果表明, 昆明市松华坝水源地为中度脆弱. 其中, 水文气象因子、水源污染因子处于中度脆弱状态, 生态环境因子处于轻度脆弱状态, 地表扰动因子介于轻度脆弱与中度脆弱状态之间.

关键词: 高原盆地城市水源地, 脆弱性, 模糊综合评判法, 指标体系, 松华坝水源地

Abstract: According to the vulnerability of water sources area in a plateau basin, a vulnerability indices system is built by choosing four aspects, including 14 representative indices, such as hydrologic meteorology of the water sources area, ecological environment, water source pollution and the situation of the earth's surface disturbance. Based on the complexity of urban water sources and the ambiguity of index evaluation criteria, an analysis model is built by using analytical hierarchy process to determine the weight, as well as principal component analysis. The model is used to assess the vulnerability of Songhuaba water sources of Kunming. It is found that the water sources are of moderate vulnerability. Wherein, the factor of hydrologic meteorology and water source pollution are of moderate vulnerability. Ecological environment are of mild vulnerability. Surface disturbance is in a stage between mild and moderate vulnerability.

Key words: urban water sources area in a plateau basin, vulnerability, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, index system, Songhuaba water sources

中图分类号:

TV213

史正涛, 曾建军, 刘新有, 黄英, 王杰. 基于模糊综合评判的高原盆地城市水源地脆弱性评价[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(5): 1276-1282.

SHI Zheng-tao, ZENG Jian-jun, LIU Xin-you, HUANG Ying, WANG Jie. Vulnerability Assessment on Urban Water Sources Area in a Plateau Basin Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2013, 35(5): 1276-1282.

参考文献

[1] Janssen M A, Schoon M L, Ke Weimao, et al. Scholarly networks on resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change [J]. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3): 240-252.
[2] Timmerman P. Vulnerability, Resilience and the Collapse of Society: A Review of Models and Possible Climatic Applications[R]. Toronto, Canada: Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, 1981.
[3] Feng Lihua, Huang Yijun. Comprehensive evaluation of fragility of ecological of ecological environment[J]. Tropical Geography, 2003, 23(2): 102-104;114. [冯丽华, 黄亦君. 生态环境脆弱度的综合评价[J]. 热带地理, 2003, 23(2): 102-104;114.]
[4] Zhao Yanxia, He Lei, Liu Shoudong, et al. Evaluation method of agro-ecosystem vulnerability[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2007, 26(5): 754-758. [赵艳霞, 何磊, 刘寿东, 等. 农业生态系统脆弱性评价方法[J]. 生态学杂志, 2007, 26(5): 754-758.]
[5] Fang Yiping, Qin Dahe, Ding Yongjian. Review of advance and orientation of vulnerability research[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2009, 31(3): 540-545. [方一平, 秦大河, 丁永建. 气候变化脆弱性及其国际研究进展[J]. 冰川冻土, 2009, 31(3): 540-545.]
[6] Xiong Wen, Wu Yuming. Causality and impulse response on the relationship of China's economic growth and environment fragility[J]. Resources Science, 2006, 28(5): 17-23. [熊文, 吴玉鸣. 中国经济增长与环境脆弱性的因果及冲击响应分析[J]. 资源科学, 2006, 28(5): 17-23.]
[7] Roberts M G, Yang Guo'an. The international progress of sustainable development research: A comparison of vulnerability analysis and the sustainable livelihoods approach[J]. Progress in Geography, 2003, 22(1): 11-21. [Roberts M G, 杨国安. 可持续发展研究方法国际进展——脆弱性分析方法与可持续生计方法比较[J]. 地理科学进展, 2003, 22(1): 11-21.]
[8] Wu Chuanjun, Guo Huancheng. Land Use of China[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 1994. [吴传钧, 郭焕成. 中国土地利用[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1994.]
[9] Zou Jun, Yang Yurong, Mao Dehua, et al. An assessment of vulnerability of agricultural ecological water resource bank in Hunan Province[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2010, 32(1): 196-203. [邹君, 杨玉蓉, 毛德华, 等. 湖南省农业生态水资源库脆弱性评价[J]. 冰川冻土, 2010, 32(1): 196-203.]
[10] Li He, Zhang Pingyu, Cheng Yeqing. Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability[J]. Progress in Geography, 2008, 27(2): 18-25. [李鹤, 张平宇, 程叶青. 脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J]. 地理科学进展, 2008, 27(2): 18-25.]
[11] Ma Fangbing, Wang Huan, Li Chunhui, et al. Research progress in water resources vulnerability assessment[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2010, 23(1): 30-37. [马芳冰, 王桓, 李春惠, 等. 水资源脆弱性研究进展[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2010, 23(1): 30-37.]
[12] Chen Pan, Li Lan, Zhou Wencai. Research progress on vulnerable of water resource and assessment methods at home and abroad[J]. Water Resources Protection, 2011, 27(5): 32-38. [陈攀, 李兰, 周文财. 水资源脆弱性及评价方法国内外研究进展[J]. 水资源保护, 2011, 27(5): 32-38.]
[13] Li He, Zhang Pingyu. Research progress and prospective applications of vulnerability approach under global change[J]. Progress in Geography, 2011, 30(7): 920-929. [李鹤, 张平宇. 全球变化背景下脆弱性研究进展与应用展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30(7): 920-929.]
[14] Yao Lin, Shi Zhengtao, Liu Xinyou. Kunming Songhuaba water source area population and ecological environment question research[J]. Environmental Science and Management, 2009, 34(1): 135-139. [姚琳, 史正涛, 刘新有. 昆明市松华坝水源区人口与生态环境问题研究[J]. 环境科学与管理, 2009, 34(1): 135-139.]
[15] Wang Changjian, Zhang Xiaolei, Du Hongru, et al. Comprehensive evaluation and analysis on the water resources carrying capacity levels in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(4): 990-998. [王长建, 张小雷, 杜宏茹, 等. 开都河-孔雀河流域水资源承载力水平的综合评价与分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(4): 990-998.]
[16] Liu Heng, Geng Leihua, Chen Xiaoyan. Indicators for evaluating sustainable utilization of regional water resources[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2003, 14(3): 265-270. [刘恒, 耿雷华, 陈晓燕. 区域水资源可持续利用评价指标体系的建立[J]. 水科学进展, 2003, 14(3): 265-270.]
[17] Dong Guangqian, Gao Xincai. Indexes of ecosystem health evaluation[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(1): 196-200. [董光前, 高新才. 评价生态系统健康的指标[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(1): 196-200.]
[18] Wang Yuankun, Xia Ziqiang, Cao Shengle. Comprehensive evaluation method for water security[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences), 2007, 35(6): 618-621. [王远坤, 夏自强, 曹升乐. 水安全综合评价方法研究[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版), 2007, 35(6): 618-621.]
[19] Xu Ke, Zhou Jianzhong, Gu Ran, et al. Health evaluation of typical ecological area in Three Gorges based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2010, 28(6): 89-91. [许可, 周建中, 顾然, 等. 基于FAHP法的三峡脆弱生态典型区健康评价[J]. 水电能源科学, 2010, 28(6): 89-91.]
[20] Zhang Xiaojun, Zhong Fanglei, Xu Zhongmin, et al. Applying cultural theory and fuzzy network analysis to evaluate the optimal water resources management style in the middle reaches of the Heihe River[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(1): 224-232. [张小君, 钟方雷, 徐中民, 等. 运用文化理论和模糊网络分析评价黑河中游最优水资源管理风格[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(1): 224-232.]
[21] Jiang Jun, Song Baowei, Pan Guang, et al. A novel method for fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on set pair analysis[J]. Journal of Northwestern Polytechnical University, 2007, 25(3): 421-424. [姜军, 宋保维, 潘光, 等. 基于集对分析的模糊综合评判[J]. 西北工业大学学报, 2007, 25(3): 421-424.]
[22] Luo Jungang, Xie Jiancang, Ruan Benqing. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment model for water shortage risk based on entropy weight[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2008, 39(9): 1092-1097;1104. [罗军刚, 解建仓, 阮本清. 基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评价模型及应用[J]. 水利学报, 2008, 39(9): 1092-1097;1104.]
[23] Xu Chengjuan, Liang Chuan. Comprehensive water-quality security evaluation of Songhuaba water-resource protection zone in Kunming[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2012, 12(1): 161-165. [许成娟, 梁川. 昆明市松华坝水源保护区水资源安全综合评价[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2012, 12(1): 161-165.]
[24] Lei Hongjun, Pan Hongwei, Liu Xin, et al. Evaluation on the regional water security based on virtual water theory and Fuzzy-AHP model[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 2011, 30(6): 123-127. [雷宏军, 潘红卫, 刘鑫, 等. 基于虚拟水理论与Fuzzy-AHP方法的区域水安全评价研究[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 2011, 30(6): 123-127.]
[25] Wu Kaiya, Jin Juliang, Wei Yiming. Intelligent integrated model for forewarning evaluation of watershed water security[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2009, 20(4): 518-525. [吴开亚, 金菊良, 魏一鸣. 流域水安全预警评价的智能集成模型[J]. 水科学进展, 2009, 20(4): 518-525.]
[26] Sun Zhengbao, Chen Zhijian, Liao Xiaoyong, et al. Development and application of a fuzzy membership model for identifying erosive rainfall events[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(6): 801-806. [孙正宝, 陈治谏, 廖晓勇, 等. 侵蚀性降雨识别的模糊隶属度模型建立及应用[J]. 水科学进展, 2011, 22(6): 801-806.]
[27] Lu Jianhong, Ding Lijie, Xu Jianxin, et al. Application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to safety of rural drinking water[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2011, 29(2): 99-102;111. [陆建红, 丁立杰, 徐建新, 等. 模糊综合评价模型在农村饮水安全评价中的应用[J]. 水电能源科学, 2011, 29(2): 99-102;111.]
[28] Zhao Huanchen, Xu Shubai, He Jinsheng. Analytic Hierarchy Process: A Simple New Decision-Making Method[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 1986. [赵焕臣, 许树柏, 和金生. 层次分析法——一种简易的新决策方法[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1986.]
[29] Yang Suiqiao, Yang Jianping, Wang Shijin, et al. Adaptive capacity evaluation of ecological-economic system to cryospheric change-a case study in the Mount Yulong[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(2): 485-493. [杨岁桥, 杨建平, 王世金, 等. 生态-经济系统对冰冻圈变化的适应能力评价——以玉龙雪山地区为例[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(2): 485-493.]