1961-2010年西北干旱区极端降水指数的时空变化分析

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0039

冰川冻土 ›› 2014, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (2): 318-326.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0039

1961-2010年西北干旱区极端降水指数的时空变化分析

王少平^1,2, 姜逢清¹, 吴小波¹, 胡汝骥¹

1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830011;
2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2013-09-02 修回日期:2013-12-22 出版日期:2014-04-25 发布日期:2014-05-20
作者简介:王少平（1985-），女，陕西宝鸡人，2009年毕业于四川师范大学，现为硕士研究生，主要从事气候变化研究. E-mail：w1215lin@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41171378）；国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）项目（2010CB951001）资助

Temporal and spatial variability of the extreme precipitation indices overthe arid regions in Northwest China from 1961 to 2010

WANG Shaoping^1,2, JIANG Fengqing¹, WU Xiaobo¹, HU Ruji¹

1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Vrümqi 830011, China;
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2013-09-02 Revised:2013-12-22 Online:2014-04-25 Published:2014-05-20
Contact: 姜逢清，E-mail：jiangfq@ms.xjb.ac.cn E-mail:jiangfq@ms.xjb.ac.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 结合绝对阈值和百分位法定义极端降水事件的优点，提出了一种更灵敏的检测极端降水事件的方法. 该方法不仅能检测出常用降水指数无法检测到的降水量稀少地区尤其干旱区的极端降水事件，同时也能过滤掉其检测到的降水量丰富地区的虚假极端降水事件. 此方法首次被应用于统计1961年1月至2010年2月西北干旱区72个气象站点的年和季节的极端降水指数（大降水和强降水指数），并分析了极端降水指数的时间变化趋势及其空间分布特征. 结果表明：西北干旱区春（3-5月）、秋（9-11月）、冬（12月至次年2月）三季极端降水指数无显著（P>0.05）变化趋势，夏季（6-8月）大降水的频率和降水量以及大降水降水量占总降水量的比重都显著增加；新疆地区极端降水指数为增加趋势的区域基本都分布在海拔较高（约海拔1 000 m以上）的地区；西北干旱区东部极端降水指数变化趋势的空间分布有明显的季节差异，表现为夏、秋季大部分地区为增加趋势，冬、春季大部分地区为减小趋势.

关键词: 西北干旱区, 极端降水指数, 时空分析

Abstract: The advantages of absolute threshold and the percentile method are combined to devepl a new method to detect extreme precipitation events more sensitively. Compared with the commonly used method, the new method not only can discover extreme precipitation events in arid region, but also can filter out the fake extreme precipitation events in rich-precipitation regions. This method is firstly used to calculate the extreme precipitation indices, heavy and intense precipitation indices at the level of year and season for the selected meteorological stations in the arid regions of Northwest China, based on the daily precipitation data from January of 1961 to Febuary of 2010, then the change trends of calculated extreme pracipitation indices and their spatial distribution characteristics are revealed. The main conclusions are as followings. First, the spring (March to May), autumn (September to November) and winter (December to next February) extreme precipitation indices do not change significantly (P>0.05), but in summer (June to August), precipitation frequency, total amount of heavy precipitation and the proportion of it increase significantly. Secondly, in Xinjiang, the increasing trends of all extreme precipitation indices appear in high elevation (about 1 000 m a.s.l., or above); in east of the arid regions of Northwest China, spatial distributions of changing trends of the extreme precipitation indices present obvious seasonal differences: most of the regions are dominated by increasing trend in summer and autumn, but by decreasing trend in winter and spring.

Key words: arid regions in Northwest China, extreme precipitation indices, spatial and temporal analysis

中图分类号:

P467

王少平, 姜逢清, 吴小波, 胡汝骥. 1961-2010年西北干旱区极端降水指数的时空变化分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(2): 318-326.

WANG Shaoping, JIANG Fengqing, WU Xiaobo, HU Ruji. Temporal and spatial variability of the extreme precipitation indices overthe arid regions in Northwest China from 1961 to 2010[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2014, 36(2): 318-326.

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1961-2010年西北干旱区极端降水指数的时空变化分析

Temporal and spatial variability of the extreme precipitation indices overthe arid regions in Northwest China from 1961 to 2010

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