基于协调发展度模型的经济增长与资源环境时空关联分析：兼论典型寒旱区主体功能规划的协调决策

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0089

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为探索经济相对落后地区如何在主体功能区规划框架下推进区域可持续发展的思路，基于地理学第一定律及时空邻近度概念等，引入生态系统服务价值理论构建资源环境成本核算模型，从人口、资源、环境与经济社会协调发展的视角提出经济增长与资源环境的协调发展度、相对协调发展度模型. 应用探索性空间数据分析方法测度1978年以来我国大陆省区经济增长与资源、环境的协同效应，在此基础上从新疆、西藏、青海、内蒙古、黑龙江、甘肃、宁夏等7个典型寒旱区主体功能规划的视角，初步探讨了经济欠发达地区经济发展与资源、环境的协调决策问题. 结果表明：1978-2012年，中国大陆省区经济发展的资源环境成本由1.52×10¹²元攀升至9.65×10¹²元，经济增长与资源环境的协调发展度由0.232提高到1.029，新疆等7个典型寒旱区的相对协调发展度由0.379下降到0.177. 北方各省区经济增长与资源环境的协调发展度具有空间异质性，空间负相关省区增至12个且有进一步扩张趋势；东南和西部地区分别形成高-高、低-低集聚区，但受北方经济效益与生态效益溢出的影响、空间正相关的显著性持续降低. 未来，我国典型寒旱区及有关经济欠发达地区应积极完善中小尺度的主体功能规划，抓住机遇持续推进经济结构调整，通过提高资源利用效率、降低环境损失成本等提升经济发展质量，促进区域人口、资源、环境与经济社会协调发展.

关键词: 资源经济, 主体功能区规划, 协调发展度模型, 环境成本, 寒旱区

Abstract: In order to explore the thought to advance regional sustainable development under the framework of the main functional area programming in the regions where the economy is relatively backward, the theory of ecosystem services was introduced to establish the accounting model of resources and environment costs based on the first law of geography and the concept of spatial-temporal proximity. From the viewpoint of coordinated development of population, resources, environment, economy and society, the models on coordinated development degree and relative coordinated development degree between the economic growth and resource-environment were put forward. Then the method of exploratory spatial data analysis was used to measure the synergy effect between economic development and resources and environment for all China since 1978. On the basis of above-mentioned issues, from the viewpoint of main function programming in seven typical cold and arid regions (Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Ningxia), the decision problems on coordination of regional economic development and resources-environment were further discussed. The corresponding data and above-calculated results show that resources and environment costs in the course of economic development had increased from 1.52×10¹² yuan to 9.65×10¹² yuan from 1978 to 2012 in China, and the coordinated development degree between the economic growth and resource-environment had increased from 0.232 to 1.029. The relative coordinated development degree in the seven typical cold and arid provinces (regions) had decreased from 0.379 to 0.177. The coordinated development degree between the economic growth and resource-environment in northern provinces (regions) had spatial heterogeneity, and the provinces (regions) with negative correlation pattern in space had increased to 12 with an obvious diffusing tendency. The provinces (regions) with HH (High-High) and LL (Low-Low) clustering are respectively located in the southeast and west. However, the significance of spatial positive correlation is continuously decreasing due to spilling effect of northern economic and ecological benefits. In the future, for the typical cold and arid provinces (regions) and economic less-developed regions, it is still necessary to improve actively main function programming in medium and small scales, to grasp the opportunity to adjust continuously industry structure. Some measures should be taken to promote economic development quality and advance coordinated development of population, resources, environment, economy and society by means of enhancing utilization efficiency of resources and lowering environmental loss costs.

Key words: resource economy, main functional area programming, model of coordinated development degree, environmental cost, cold and arid regions

中图分类号:

X24/F062.2

郑德凤, 臧正, 赵良仕, 孙才志. 基于协调发展度模型的经济增长与资源环境时空关联分析：兼论典型寒旱区主体功能规划的协调决策[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(3): 740-750.

ZHENG Defeng, ZANG Zheng, ZHAO Liangshi, SUN Caizhi. Analyzing the spatial-temporal correlation of the economic growth and resource-environment with the model of coordinated development degree[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2014, 36(3): 740-750.

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