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冰川冻土 ›› 2014, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 1321-1327.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0158

• 生态经济与可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆喀什地区城市自然灾害综合风险评估

塔依尔江·吐尔浑, 安瓦尔·买买提明   

  1. 新疆师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院 新疆城镇化发展研究中心, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054
  • 收稿日期:2014-03-22 修回日期:2014-06-17 出版日期:2014-10-25 发布日期:2014-11-19
  • 通讯作者: 安瓦尔·买买提明, E-mail:anwaer@xjnu.edu.cn E-mail:anwaer@xjnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:塔依尔江·吐尔浑(1986-), 男, 维吾尔族, 新疆乌鲁木齐人, 2010年毕业于新疆师范大学, 现为在读硕士研究生, 主要研究城市地理与规划研究. E-mail:tayerjan520@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(41061019);中国科学院“西部之光”人才培养计划项目(RCPY201006);新疆师范大学人文社会科学重点研究基地招标课题(XJCSFZ201305)资助

Study of comprehensive risk evaluation of urban natural disasters in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang

Tayierjiang Tuerhun, Anwaer Maimaitiming   

  1. Urban Development Research Center of Xinjiang, Geography Science and Tourism College, Xinjiang Normal University, Ürümqi 830054, China
  • Received:2014-03-22 Revised:2014-06-17 Online:2014-10-25 Published:2014-11-19

摘要:

在分析城市灾害风险内涵的基础上, 从致灾因子、历史灾情、暴露-易损性、抗灾恢复力四个层面构建了新疆喀什地区城市灾害风险评估的二级评价指标体系, 综合运用多指标综合评价模型, 对喀什地区城市自然灾害进行了分析; 采取1991-2011年数据对喀什地区自然灾害风险数据进行了定量评估. 结果表明: 1991-2003年间城市自然灾害风险呈现波动趋势, 2004年以后城市社会经济的快速发展等原因使自然灾害发生频率较往年呈现增长趋势, 这直接影响该地区城市灾害风险变化. 最后, 在定量分析的基础上提出了完善城市灾害风险管理的对策和建议.

关键词: 自然灾害, 风险评价, 城市化, 喀什地区

Abstract:

Based on analysis of the connotation of urban natural disaster risk, a two-level evaluation index system is established to comprehensively evaluate the risk of urban natural disasters in Kashgar Prefecture, which takes the factors causing disaster, historical disaster records, exposure-vulnerability and disaster resilience in consider. A comprehensive evaluation model with multi indexes is used to analyze the urban natural disasters in Kashgar Prefecture. The data of 1991-2011 in the prefecture are quantitatively evaluated. It is found that during 1991-2003 the risks of urban natural disasters were fluctuated. However, since 2004, due to rapid social and economic development and other reasons, the disasters has occurred more frequently than before in the prefecture, which directly increases the risks of urban natural disasters. In this paper, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward on the basis of quantitative analysis to improve the risk management of urban natural disasters.

Key words: natural disaster, risk assessment, urbanization, Kashgar Prefecture

中图分类号: 

  • X43