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冰川冻土 ›› 2014, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 1345-1352.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0161

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于CMIP5的东亚地区降雪量变化特征分析

柳媛普1, 李锁锁2, 吕世华2, 高艳红2, 奥银焕2   

  1. 1. 中国气象局 兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局 干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730020;
    2. 中国科学院 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2014-06-06 修回日期:2014-09-18 出版日期:2014-12-25 发布日期:2015-01-20
  • 作者简介:柳媛普(1981-),女,宁夏中宁人,助理研究员,2007年在中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所获硕士学位,现主要从事陆面过程与数值模拟研究.E-mail:lyp@lzb.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41205076); 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2013CB956004; 2010CB950500); 中国科学院"西部之光"人才培养计划博士项目(李锁锁); 中国科学院"百人计划"项目(高艳红); 干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM201409)资助

An analysis of the changing characteristics of snowfall in the East Asia based on CMIP5

LIU Yuanpu1, LI Suosuo2, LÜ Shihua2, GAO Yanhong2, AO Yinhuan2   

  1. 1. Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction, Gansu Province/Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2014-06-06 Revised:2014-09-18 Online:2014-12-25 Published:2015-01-20

摘要: 利用JMA的JRA-55降雪量及CMIP5的6个模式模拟的降雪量资料, 分析了东亚地区降雪量年变化特征及年际变化特征. 结果表明: 东亚地区降雪量在1958-2004年期间具有明显的年际变化特征及区域分布特征; 降雪主要集中在11月至翌年的4月, 这6个月中降雪量占年总降雪量的82%; 年际变化特征呈现出一种波动变化略有增加的趋势, 但是增加的幅度有所不同. 从区域分布特征来看, 东亚地区降雪主要分布在东北亚、青藏高原及新疆等3个区域. CMIP5的6个模式对东亚区域及其子区域东北亚、青藏高原、新疆1850-2004年降雪量年际变化特征的模拟差异较大. 多模式集合预报的结果表现为, 在过去155 a(1850-2004年)东亚区域降雪量呈现明显减小趋势, 东北亚和青藏高原降雪量为波动略有减小趋势, 新疆降雪量为明显增加趋势.

关键词: 东亚, 降雪量, 年变化与年际变化特征, CMIP5

Abstract: In this paper, the annual and monthly variations of snowfall in East Asia are analyzed by using snowfalls simulated with CMIP5 model and JRA-55 annual solid precipitation time sequence. It is found that there were obvious annual variation and regional distribution characteristics during the period of 1958-2004. The snowfall concentrated in the period from November to next April mainly, accounting for 82% of the annual snowfall; the annual variation showed a fluctuant increasing tendency, with different increment; spatially, snowfall concentrated in three regions: Northeast Asia, Tibetan Plateau and Xinjiang. The snowfalls simulated by six CMIP5 models had some spatial differences in the East Asia and the three sub-regions during 1850-2004. Temporally, the simulated snowfall presented an evident decreasing tendency in East Asia during the period from 1850 to 2004, with a slight decreasing tendency or an undulation in Northeast Asia and the Tibetan Plateau and an evident increasing tendency in Xinjiang.

Key words: East Asia, snowfall, annual and monthly variation characteristics, CMIP5

中图分类号: 

  • P426.63