1961-2013年新疆不同时间尺度降水量的气候特征及其历史演变规律

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0163

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用新疆1961-2013年资料完整的89个气象观测站降水量资料, 应用数理统计、线性趋势、突变、小波分析等方法, 对新疆降水量的时空分布和变化特征以及突变性、周期性特征进行了分析. 结果表明: 新疆年降水量空间分布极不均匀, 大值区分布主要在天山山区及其两侧; 降水集中出现在春末至夏季, 其中, 7月在全年所占比例最大. 新疆及其各分区年降水量与降水量距平百分率均呈显著增加趋势, 不同于中国大部分区域同期呈显著减少或无明显线性变化趋势的现象, 增加速率与年降水量有关, 同时年际波动及阶段性变化明显; 四季降水量增加趋势的显著性不如年降水量, 空间分布上年和四季降水量均表现为大部分地区呈增加趋势, 且增加趋势冬季 > 夏季 > 春季 > 秋季. 新疆及天山山区年降水量在1987年发生了突变, 北疆在1984年发生了突变, 而南疆在1981-1986年期间发生了突变; 新疆及北疆年降水量具有3 a、6 a、8 a、11 a、18 a的波动周期, 天山山区存在6 a与10 a的震荡周期, 南疆波动周期为5 a、8 a、18 a, 四季降水量也存在不同的波动周期.

关键词: 新疆, 时间尺度, 降水量, 气候特征, 变化特征, 突变, 周期

Abstract: Spatial-temporal distribution, climatic changes and characteristics of abrupt change and periodicity of precipitation in Xinjiang were analyzed with mathematical statistics, linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis based on the complete precipitation data from 89 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2013. The results show that spatial-temporal distribution of the precipitation was extremely uneven, with maximum in the Tianshan Mountains and their both sides, and concentrating from late spring to summer, especially in July; annual precipitation and annual precipitation anomaly percentage had significantly increased in Xinjiang, with an increasing rate in related to annual precipitation, unlike other regions in China, where they had significantly decreased or no obviously linear changing trend; they also had significant inter-annual fluctuated and periodically changed; the significance of seasonal precipitation increasing was inferior to the annual precipitation increasing; spatially, seasonal and annual precipitation increasing both took place in most areas, with the increasing scope as in the winter>in the summer> in the spring> in the autumn. There were abrupt changes of annual precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains, northern Xinjiang and southern Xinjiang in 1987, 1984 and 1981-1986, respectively. The annual precipitation in Xinjiang as a whole and northern Xinjiang had five periods of fluctuation, i.e., 3, 6, 8, 11, 18 a. In Tianshan Mountains there were main annual precipitation fluctuation periods of 6 a and 10 a; in southern Xinjiang there were main annual precipitation fluctuation periods of 5 a, 8 a and 18 a. Seasonal precipitation also had different fluctuation periods.

Key words: Xinjiang, time scale, precipitation, climatic characteristics, change characteristics, abrupt change, period

中图分类号:

P426.6

江远安, 刘精, 邵伟玲, 余行杰, 王胜利. 1961-2013年新疆不同时间尺度降水量的气候特征及其历史演变规律[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(6): 1363-1375.

JIANG Yuan'an, LIU Jing, SHAO Weiling, YU Xingjie, WANG Shengli. Climatic characteristics and historical evolution of precipitation in different time scales in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2013[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2014, 36(6): 1363-1375.

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