新疆不同区域牧业雪灾损失时频变化特征

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0100

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 选用新疆1952-2013年75个县707条雪灾害资料, 采用灰色关联评估模型以县为单位将新疆分为特重雪灾区、重雪灾区、一般雪灾区、小雪灾区. 用气候趋势系数与五阶函数分析各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额的长期变化趋势, 并用morlet小波分析其振荡周期. 结果表明: 全疆及各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额基本都存在23 a左右的长周期, 14～17 a中周期, 10 a左右的小周期, 另外, 还存在5～7 a的小波动, 各区周期振荡的强弱及时间范围不同. 全疆及特重雪灾区牲畜死亡数额长期以来有减少趋势; 而重雪灾区和一般雪灾区牲畜死亡数额长期以来有微弱的增加趋势. 特重雪灾区牲畜死亡数额长期变化趋势决定了新疆雪灾牲畜死亡数额的长期变化趋势, 全疆平均每年因雪灾牲畜死亡数额以0.4%的速率递减, 特重雪灾区每年按上一年度总额1.4%的速率递减. 由于20世纪80年代开始, 新疆有计划、大规模推行牧民定居工程, 从而大大提高了新疆牧业抗御自然灾害的能力, 以及冬春气温升高的缘故, 使得全疆及各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额大大减少. 因为各牧业区实施牧民定居工程开始的时间不同, 使全疆各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额高值期(年代际与年际尺度振荡的活跃期)进入低值期(少发时期)的临界时间存在差异.

关键词: 雪灾, 损失, 时频变化, 趋势, 牧业, 自然灾害

Abstract: Analyzing 707 snow disaster records from 75 counties in Xinjiang region from 1952 to 2013, by means of grey association degree model, the region can be divided into extra-heavy disaster area, heavy disaster area, normal disaster area and less disaster area. Climate trend coefficient and five-order function were used to analyze the long-term variation tendency of livestock mortality in various disaster areas. It was found by Morlet Wavelet analysis that the disaster oscillation cycle had generally a long cycle of about 23 years, a medium cycle of 14~17 years and a small cycle of about 10 years, in addition to a mini fluctuation of 5~7 years, with different harmful intensities and durations, in Xinjiang region as a whole and various disaster areas. Tendency analysis showed that in Xinjiang region as a whole and especially in extra-heavy disaster areas there was a decreasing tendency of livestock mortality in a long time span, but in heavy disaster areas and normal disaster areas there was a slightly increasing tendency of livestock mortality in a long time span. Analysis shows that the long-term change in livestock mortality in extra-heavy disaster areas determines the long-term change in livestock mortality in Xinjiang region; in a long-term, the livestock amount killed by snow disasters is decreasing at a rate of 0.4%; in extra-heavy disaster areas the amount is 98.6% of that in last year. Due to the planned implementation of herdsmen settlement program on a large scale since 1980 in Xinjiang region, the capacity of animal husbandry of the region against natural disasters has been improved greatly; in addition, winter and spring temperature rising nowadays, livestock mortality is going to decrease greatly everywhere. However, because of difference in start time of implementing herdsmen settlement program in different pasturing areas, the peak time of livestock mortality differs in different snow disaster areas.

Key words: snow disaster, loss, time-frequency, tendency, husbandry, natural disaster

中图分类号:

S427

王秋香, 刘卫平, 李圆圆, 古丽格娜, 孔婷, 侯俊, 姚艳丽. 新疆不同区域牧业雪灾损失时频变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(4): 905-915.

WANG Qiuxiang, LIU Weiping, LI Yuanyuan, Guligena, KONG Ting, HOU Jun, YAO Yanli. Different regional animal husbandry in Xinjiang snow disaster losses time-frequency characteristics[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2015, 37(4): 905-915.

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