新疆冰雹分区预报方法研究

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0116

冰川冻土 ›› 2015, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 1041-1049.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0116

新疆冰雹分区预报方法研究

热苏力·阿不拉^{1 2}, 牛生杰¹, 阿不力米提江·阿布力克木³, 巴哈古丽·瓦哈甫³

1. 南京信息工程大学大气物理学院, 江苏南京 210044;
2. 新疆维吾尔自治区人工影响天气办公室, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830002;
3. 新疆维吾尔自治区气象台新疆乌鲁木齐 830002

收稿日期:2015-02-15 修回日期:2015-04-12 出版日期:2015-08-25 发布日期:2016-01-18
作者简介:热苏力·阿不拉(1966-), 男, 维吾尔族, 新疆阿图什人, 高级工程师, 1990年毕业于成都气象学院, 现为南京信息工程大学在读博士研究生, 主要从事人工影响天气业务与科研工作. E-mail: rasul_66@163.com.
基金资助:
新疆维吾尔自治区人民政府“新疆吐鲁番哈密地区空中云水资源开发利用”项目“对流云降水物理过程和早期识别方法研究”课题(TUHA201521)资助

Study of the method of partitional hail forecast in Xinjiang region

Rasul Abla^{1 2}, NIU Shengjie¹, Ablimitjan Ablikim³, Bahargul Wahap³

1. School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Modification Office, Vrümqi 830002, China;
3. Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory, Vrümqi 830002, China

Received:2015-02-15 Revised:2015-04-12 Online:2015-08-25 Published:2016-01-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1981-2011年的气象观测数据, 普查分析了位于新疆北疆沿天山一带的奎屯河-玛纳斯河流域和位于南疆中天山南麓的阿克苏河流域两大防雹区长序列降雹个例的环流形势背景和天气条件, 把两地的主要降雹环流型归纳为中亚低涡(槽)型、巴尔喀什湖低涡(槽)型、西西伯利亚低涡(槽)型和锋区短波槽型等4种类型, 并根据两地各环流型降雹的三度空间配置及环境条件, 研制出了6种降雹概念模型. 同时, 筛选出8个有指示意义、稳定可靠的对流因子作为冰雹预报因子, 建立了两地各环流型多指标叠套法的冰雹分区、定量(强)预报方法. 该方法实际应用效果显著, 可以推广到新疆其他重点降雹区域应用.

关键词: 冰雹天气特征, 概念模型, 分区预报方法, 新疆

Abstract: The circulation and weather conditions of hail events in Kuitun-Manas River basin in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and the Aksu River basin in the south of the Tianshan Mountains were analyzed by using the meteorological data from 1981 to 2011. The major circulations of hail events were summarized into four types in the two basins, i.e., Central Asia trough type, Balkhash Lake trough type, Western Siberia trough type and frontal shortwave trough type. According to the 3-dimensional spatial patterns of circulation and background conditions, six hail conceptual models were developed. Meanwhile, eight significant stable convention factors were chosen to be hail predictor variables. Thereby, the quantitative prediction methods for hail zone were established by circulation multi-index superposition in the two basins. This method is significant in practical application, which can be extended to other hail areas in Xinjiang region.

Key words: weather characteristics of hail, conceptual model, method of partitional forecast, Xinjiang

中图分类号:

S427

热苏力·阿不拉, 牛生杰, 阿不力米提江·阿布力克木, 巴哈古丽·瓦哈甫. 新疆冰雹分区预报方法研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(4): 1041-1049.

Rasul Abla, NIU Shengjie, Ablimitjan Ablikim, Bahargul Wahap. Study of the method of partitional hail forecast in Xinjiang region[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2015, 37(4): 1041-1049.

参考文献

[1] Rasul Abla, Niu Shengjie, Wang Hongyan. Spatial temporal distribution characteristics of hail in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2013, 22(2): 158-164. [热苏力·阿不拉, 牛生杰, 王红岩. 新疆冰雹时空分布特征分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2013, 22(2): 158-164.]
[2] Anwaer Maimaitiming, Dai Rui. Study of the natural disaster vulnerability evaluation in Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(5): 1301-1307. [安瓦尔·买买提明, 戴锐. 新疆阿克苏地区城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(5): 1301-1307.]
[3] Showalter A K. A stability index for thunderstorm forecasting[J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1953, 34(6): 250-252.
[4] Galway J G. The lifted index as a predictor of latent instability[J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1956, 37(528529): 1993.
[5] Ostby F P. Improved accuracy in severe storm forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit during the last 25 years: Then versus now[J]. Weather and forecasting, 1999, 14(4): 526-543.
[6] Barlow W. A new index for the prediction of deep convection[C]//17^th Conference on Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, Amer. Meteorol Soc., 1993: 129-132.
[7] Polston K L. Synoptic patterns and environmental conditions associated with very large (4" and greater) hail events[C]//Preprints, 18^th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, San Francisco, CA. 1996: 349-356.
[8] Johns R H, Doswell III C A. Severe local storms forecasting[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 1992, 7(4): 588-612.
[9] Luo Shengzhou, Wang Qingchun, Dai Sheng. An analysis climate characteristics of meteorological disasters in Qinghai Province[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(6): 1380-1387. [罗生洲, 汪青春, 戴升. 青海省气象灾害的若干气候特征研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(6): 1380-1387.]
[10] Liu Caihong, Wang Lijun, Wang Zhenyu, et al. Division of hail disaster risk scales in Qinghai Plateau based on damage assessment[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(6): 1409-1415. [刘彩红, 王黎俊, 王振宇, 等. 基于灾损评估的青海高原冰雹灾害风险区划[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(6): 1409-1415.]
[11] Wang Xianbin, Zhang Danmei, XinYanhui, et al. Study on potential forecasting and short-time nowcasting models of hailstone in Fuxin[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2013, 34(1): 106-113. [王宪彬, 张丹梅, 辛艳辉, 等. 阜新地区冰雹短期潜势和短时预报方法研究[J]. 中国农业气象, 2013, 3 4(1): 106-113.]
[12] Nong Mengsong, Qi Liyan, Huang Mingce, et al. Research on hail potential forecast happened in Guangxi based on circulation classification[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2008, 34(6): 46-52. [农孟松, 绮丽燕, 黄明策, 等. 基于环流分型的广西冰雹潜势预报研究[J]. 气象, 2008, 34(6): 46-52.]
[13] Sun Yuwen, Han Yang, Sun Xia, et al. Hail shooting type and distribution of correlation factor[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2012, 31(1): 269-276. [孙玉稳, 韩洋, 孙霞, 等. 降雹类型及相关因子的分布特征[J]. 高原气象, 2012, 31(1): 269-276.]
[14] Ma Xujie, Chen Shu, Ren Yulong, et al. Analysis of climatic characteristic of hail and its short-term prediction system in Linxia of Gansu Province[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2012, 30(2): 293-297. [马旭洁, 陈树, 任余龙, 等. 甘肃临夏州冰雹气候特征及短期预警系统[J]. 干旱气象, 2012, 30(2): 293-297.]
[15] Wang Jiangang, He Qing, Xu Jianchun, et al. Climate characteristics of hail disasters in Aletai of Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2014, 32(1): 114-119. [王建刚, 何清, 徐建春, 等. 新疆阿勒泰冰雹灾害气候特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2014, 32(1): 114-119.]
[16] Mansur Sabit. Analyzing the spatio-temporal variations of hail disasters in southern Xinjiang Region during recent 60 years[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(4): 795-801. [满苏尔·沙比提. 南疆近60 a来冰雹灾害时空变化特征分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(4): 795-801.]
[17] Rasul Abla, Niu Shengjie, Yusup Abla, et al. Analysis of spatial and temporal variation characteristics hail events and damaged cotton affected in the Ogan-Kuchar River oases of southern Xinjiang during 1970-2013[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(6): 1556-1664. [热苏力·阿不拉, 牛生杰, 玉素甫·阿不拉, 等. 1970-2013年南疆渭干河-库车河流域绿洲冰雹时空变化特征及棉花受灾分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(6): 1556-1664.]
[18] Zhang Lei, Zhang Jidong, Rasul Abla. Analysis on identifying indexes of hail weather process in Akesu of the southern Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2014, 32(4): 629-635. [张磊, 张继东, 热苏力·阿不拉. 南疆阿克苏冰雹天气的判识指标研究[J]. 干旱气象, 2014, 32(4): 629-635.]
[19] Wei Yong, Peng Jun, Resuli Abula, et al. Comprehensive analysis of a severe hail in the middle section on northern slope of Tianshan Mountain in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2013, 31(4): 771-777. [魏勇, 彭军, 热苏力·阿不拉, 等. 新疆天山北坡中部一次冰雹天气成因分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2013, 31(4): 771-777.]
[20] Ma Yu, Wang Xu, Guo Jiangyong. Characteristic analyses on circulation pattern of systematic hail weather processes and satellite cloud image in Xinjiang[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2004, 23(6): 777-794. [马禹, 王旭, 郭江勇. 新疆系统性冰雹天气过程的环流形势及卫星云图特征分析[J]. 高原气象, 2004, 23(6): 787-794.]
[21] Sherwood S C. On moist instability[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2000, 128(12): 4139-4142.
[22] Liu Yuling. A study of severe convective parameters and their potential predictability to severe convective storms[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2003, 31(3): 147-151. [刘玉玲. 对流参数在强对流天气潜势预测中的作用[J]. 气象科技, 2003, 31(3): 147-151.]

新疆冰雹分区预报方法研究

Study of the method of partitional hail forecast in Xinjiang region

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	江远安, 尹宜舟, 樊静, 刘精, 贾孜拉, 余行杰. 1961-2016年新疆单站不同等级冷空气过程气候特征及变化[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(3): 448-460.
[2]	史莲梅, 李斌, 李圆圆, 孔令文, 刘卫平. 新疆冰雹灾害经济损失评估及风险区划研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(2): 299-307.
[3]	陈峰, 袁玉江, 魏文寿, 喻树龙, 尚华明, 张同文, 张瑞波, 王慧琴. 利用树轮密度重建新疆北部5-8月温度变化[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(1): 43-53.
[4]	毛炜峄, 陈鹏翔, 沈永平. 气候变暖背景下2015年夏季新疆极端高温过程及其影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(2): 291-304.
[5]	史莲梅, 赵智鹏, 王旭. 1961-2014年新疆冰雹灾害时空分布特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(4): 898-904.
[6]	朱健, 黄玉英. 新疆天山北坡军塘湖河流域"8·29"特大洪水特征与洪峰模数分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(3): 811-817.
[7]	阿布都米吉提·阿布力克木, 阿里木江·卡斯木, 艾里西尔·库尔班, 曼孜然·吐尔逊. 新疆车尔臣河流域水域的宏观变化及其影响和驱动因素[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(2): 480-492.
[8]	阿不力米提江·阿布力克木, 陈春艳, 玉素甫·阿不都拉, 巴哈古丽·瓦哈甫. 2001-2012年新疆融雪型洪水时空分布特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(1): 226-232.
[9]	江远安, 刘精, 邵伟玲, 余行杰, 王胜利. 1961-2013年新疆不同时间尺度降水量的气候特征及其历史演变规律[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(6): 1363-1375.
[10]	杜清, 徐海量, 赵新风, 张鹏, 凌红波, 王希义. 新疆喀什噶尔河流域1990-2010年土地利用/覆被及景观格局的变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(6): 1548-1555.
[11]	麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜, 海米提·依米提, 马蓉. 1956-2010年新疆焉耆盆地径流变化特征及驱动力分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(3): 670-677.
[12]	冯建东, 武志婷, 彭宽军, 陈勇航, 吴江军, 魏文寿, 崔彩霞, 高莹. 基于CloudSat卫星资料的新疆三大山区不同类型云高特征研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(2): 310-317.
[13]	刘东伟, 吉力力·阿不都外力, 王立新. 新疆艾比湖地区盐尘的沉积通量及其物质组成[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(2): 352-359.
[14]	沈永平, 苏宏超, 王国亚, 毛炜峄, 王顺德, 韩萍, 王宁练, 李忠勤. 新疆冰川、积雪对气候变化的响应(Ⅱ)：灾害效应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(6): 1355-1370.
[15]	符传博, 丹利*, 吴涧, 魏荣庆. 全球变暖背景下新疆地区近45 a来最大冻土深度变化及其突变分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(6): 1410-1418.