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冰川冻土 ›› 2015, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 1041-1049.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0116

• 寒区科学与技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆冰雹分区预报方法研究

热苏力·阿不拉1 2, 牛生杰1, 阿不力米提江·阿布力克木3, 巴哈古丽·瓦哈甫3   

  1. 1. 南京信息工程大学 大气物理学院, 江苏 南京 210044;
    2. 新疆维吾尔自治区人工影响天气办公室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002;
    3. 新疆维吾尔自治区气象台 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
  • 收稿日期:2015-02-15 修回日期:2015-04-12 出版日期:2015-08-25 发布日期:2016-01-18
  • 作者简介:热苏力·阿不拉(1966-), 男, 维吾尔族, 新疆阿图什人, 高级工程师, 1990年毕业于成都气象学院, 现为南京信息工程大学在读博士研究生, 主要从事人工影响天气业务与科研工作. E-mail: rasul_66@163.com.
  • 基金资助:
    新疆维吾尔自治区人民政府“新疆吐鲁番哈密地区空中云水资源开发利用”项目“对流云降水物理过程和早期识别方法研究”课题(TUHA201521)资助

Study of the method of partitional hail forecast in Xinjiang region

Rasul Abla1 2, NIU Shengjie1, Ablimitjan Ablikim3, Bahargul Wahap3   

  1. 1. School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    2. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Modification Office, Vrümqi 830002, China;
    3. Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory, Vrümqi 830002, China
  • Received:2015-02-15 Revised:2015-04-12 Online:2015-08-25 Published:2016-01-18

摘要: 利用1981-2011年的气象观测数据, 普查分析了位于新疆北疆沿天山一带的奎屯河-玛纳斯河流域和位于南疆中天山南麓的阿克苏河流域两大防雹区长序列降雹个例的环流形势背景和天气条件, 把两地的主要降雹环流型归纳为中亚低涡(槽)型、 巴尔喀什湖低涡(槽)型、 西西伯利亚低涡(槽)型和锋区短波槽型等4种类型, 并根据两地各环流型降雹的三度空间配置及环境条件, 研制出了6种降雹概念模型. 同时, 筛选出8个有指示意义、 稳定可靠的对流因子作为冰雹预报因子, 建立了两地各环流型多指标叠套法的冰雹分区、 定量(强)预报方法. 该方法实际应用效果显著, 可以推广到新疆其他重点降雹区域应用.

关键词: 冰雹天气特征, 概念模型, 分区预报方法, 新疆

Abstract: The circulation and weather conditions of hail events in Kuitun-Manas River basin in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and the Aksu River basin in the south of the Tianshan Mountains were analyzed by using the meteorological data from 1981 to 2011. The major circulations of hail events were summarized into four types in the two basins, i.e., Central Asia trough type, Balkhash Lake trough type, Western Siberia trough type and frontal shortwave trough type. According to the 3-dimensional spatial patterns of circulation and background conditions, six hail conceptual models were developed. Meanwhile, eight significant stable convention factors were chosen to be hail predictor variables. Thereby, the quantitative prediction methods for hail zone were established by circulation multi-index superposition in the two basins. This method is significant in practical application, which can be extended to other hail areas in Xinjiang region.

Key words: weather characteristics of hail, conceptual model, method of partitional forecast, Xinjiang

中图分类号: 

  • S427