山东西南部南四湖水位变化特征及其与气候要素的相关分析

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0121

冰川冻土 ›› 2015, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 1087-1093.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0121

山东西南部南四湖水位变化特征及其与气候要素的相关分析

吴珂^{1 2}, 陈国浩³, 蔡鹏⁴, 李兵⁵, 张翠翠⁴, 赵娴⁴

1. 南京信息工程大学公共管理学院, 江苏南京 210044;
2. 山东省气象局机关服务中心, 山东济南 250031;
3. 山东省济宁市水文局, 山东济宁 272000;
4. 山东省济宁市气象局, 山东济宁 272137;
5. 江苏省赣榆区气象局, 江苏赣榆 222100

收稿日期:2015-03-18 修回日期:2015-05-22 出版日期:2015-08-25 发布日期:2016-01-18
通讯作者: 蔡鹏, E-mail: caipeng92006@126.com. E-mail:caipeng92006@126.com
作者简介:吴珂(1975-), 女, 河北保定人, 副高级工程师, 1998年毕业于山东中医药大学, 现为南京信息工程大学公共管理学院在读硕士研究生, 主要从事气候变化、医疗气象及气象服务方面的研究. E-mail: dingdingcoco@sogou.com
基金资助:
山东省济宁市气象局2013年度综合气象观测数据本地化共享平台项目(2013jnqxz05)资助

The analysis of the levels characteristics in Lake Nansi in the Shandong Province and its related variation of meteorological elements from 1981 to 2013

WU Ke^{1 2}, CHEN Guohao³, CAI Peng⁴, LI Bing⁵, ZHANG Cuicui⁴, ZHAO Xian⁴

1. Public Institute of Management, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2. Meteorological Bureau Agency Service Center of Shandong Province, Jinan 250031, China;
3. Jining Hydrology Bureau of Shandong Province, Jining 272000, China;
4. Jining Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province, Jining 272137, China;
5. Ganyu Meteorological Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Ganyu 222100, China

Received:2015-03-18 Revised:2015-05-22 Online:2015-08-25 Published:2016-01-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候变化对水资源的影响是水文领域的一个重要的研究方向, 研究水位变化与气候要素的相关分析, 对预测湖面水位意义重大. 利用1981-2013年山东西南部南四湖水位和沿湖5个国家级气象观测站逐月平均气温、相对湿度、风速、降水和蒸发量等资料, 分析了近33 a来南四湖水位变化特征及气象影响因子. 结果表明: 近33 a南四湖水位升高趋势显著, 平均每10 a升高0.46 m; 水位变化整体分两个阶段, 1989年以前为下降态势, 1989年以后为上升态势, 1994年是水位升高的突变时间点; 平均最高水位出现在3月为33.04 m, 最低出现在12月为32.03 m. 各气象要素对南四湖水位的影响呈明显的季节性, 降水量是影响年水位变化的重要气象因子, 年降水量每增加100 mm, 水位升高0.21 m, 夏季降水量对水位的影响更为显著; 蒸发量在夏、秋季与水位呈极显著负相关; 水位在夏季与风速、在冬季与相对湿度均呈显著负相关.

关键词: 南四湖水位, 突变检验, 气候要素, 相关分析

Abstract: The impact of climate change on water resources is an important item of research in hydrological field. The correlation analysis between water level and climate factors has an important significance to predict the lake level. In this paper, using the data of monthly average air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, evaporation and so on from five meteorological stations along the Nansi Lake, together with water level data, from 1981 to 2013, the changing characteristics of the Nansi Lake and climate factors during the 33 years were analyze by statistical methods of climatic trend rate, abrupt change test, nine point two times smoothing, stepwise regression and so on. The result proves that the water level of the lake had risen obviously in the 33 years, with the average rate of 0.46 m per 10 years. The variation in water level can be divided into two stages: a going down stage before 1989, followed by a going up stage; an abrupt change was found in 1994. The average highest level (33.04 m) appeared in March, and the lowest level (32.03 m) appeared in December. The climate factors, especially precipitation, had distinctly seasonally impacted on the water level. Precipitation had impacted obviously in summer; when annual precipitation rose 100 mm, water level would rise 0.21 m. Evaporation in summer and autumn significantly negatively correlated with water level, so did wind speed in summer and relative humidity in winter.

Key words: water level of the Lake Nansi, test of abrupt change, climate factors, correlation analysis

中图分类号:

P332.3

吴珂, 陈国浩, 蔡鹏, 李兵, 张翠翠, 赵娴. 山东西南部南四湖水位变化特征及其与气候要素的相关分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(4): 1087-1093.

WU Ke, CHEN Guohao, CAI Peng, LI Bing, ZHANG Cuicui, ZHAO Xian. The analysis of the levels characteristics in Lake Nansi in the Shandong Province and its related variation of meteorological elements from 1981 to 2013[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2015, 37(4): 1087-1093.

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山东西南部南四湖水位变化特征及其与气候要素的相关分析

The analysis of the levels characteristics in Lake Nansi in the Shandong Province and its related variation of meteorological elements from 1981 to 2013

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