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冰川冻土 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 379-387.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0041

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

辽宁区域性冷空气多时间尺度变化特征及影响因子

阎琦1, 田莉1, 李爽1, 崔锦2   

  1. 1. 沈阳中心气象台, 辽宁 沈阳 110166;
    2. 中国气象局 沈阳大气环境研究所, 辽宁 沈阳 110166
  • 收稿日期:2015-11-13 修回日期:2016-01-24 出版日期:2016-04-25 发布日期:2016-07-13
  • 作者简介:阎琦(1974-),女,辽宁法库人,高级工程师,1999年毕业于南京气象学院,现从事短期天气预报及物理诊断分析研究.E-mail:yq.mete@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    辽宁省科技厅农业攻关及成果产业化项目(2014210003);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2016-015)资助

Multiple-time scale variations and impact factors of regional cold air in Liaoning Province

YAN Qi1, TIAN Li1, LI Shuang1, CUI Jin2   

  1. 1. Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang 110166, China;
    2. Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110166, China
  • Received:2015-11-13 Revised:2016-01-24 Online:2016-04-25 Published:2016-07-13

摘要: 使用辽宁省58个气象观测站1961年9月-2015年4月气温资料、国家气候中心气候监测指数和NCEP分析资料,分析了辽宁区域性冷空气的多时间尺度变化特征及影响因子.结果表明:辽宁区域性强冷空气、寒潮年总频次都呈下降趋势,而中等强度冷空气年总频次呈上升趋势,冷空气强度有减弱的趋势.区域性冷空气过程年总频次存在11a、6a和3a的变化周期,并且1964年发生突变.秋季冷空气活动最频繁,冬季冷空气强度最强.区域性冷空气初日多年平均值是9月23日,终日多年平均是4月5日,初、终日都出现提前趋势.北半球极涡面积指数与辽宁寒潮频次呈明显正相关关系,寒潮偏多月份极涡较气候平均位置偏南、50°N附近70°~180°E之间纬向风明显偏大,是辽宁寒潮增多的影响因子.

关键词: 冷空气频次, 多时间尺度变化, 周期, 突变, 影响因子

Abstract: Based on the observational data of temperature and climate monitoring index from the national climate center and NCEP, the multiple time scale variations and impact factors of regional cold air in Liaoning Province are analyzed. The analysis shows that the frequencies of regional strong cold air and cold wave have significantly decreased, but the frequency of moderate intensity cold air has increased. Cold air strength has weaken. There are changing periods of 11-year, 6-year and 3-year for regional cold air. The frequency of the regional cold air had an abrupt change in 1964. The season with most frequent cold air activity is autumn and the season with strongest cold air is winter. The average first regional cold air date is on September 23 and the last date is on April 5, and the first and the last dates are going to shift to an earlier date. The polar vortex area index in the northern hemisphere has a significant positive correlation with the frequency of the regional cold wave. In more cold wave months, the polar vortex will shift south as compared with that in normal month, and the zonal wind between 70°-180° E and near 50° N is larger than normal. The polar vortex and the zonal wind are the pronounced factors of increasing regional cold air in Liaoning Province.

Key words: cold air's frequency, multiple time scales variation, period, abrupt change, impact factors

中图分类号: 

  • P426.61+4