气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0055

冰川冻土 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 488-497.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0055

气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析

代稳^{1 2}, 吕殿青¹, 李景保¹, 王金凤²

1. 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 湖南长沙 410081;
2. 六盘水师范学院, 贵州六盘水 553004

收稿日期:2016-01-26 修回日期:2016-03-20 出版日期:2016-04-25 发布日期:2016-07-13
通讯作者: 吕殿青,E-mail:ldianqing@163.com E-mail:ldianqing@163.com
作者简介:代稳(1982-),贵州六盘水人,2010年毕业于贵州师范大学,现为湖南师范大学在读博士研究生,主要从事水文生态与环境变化研究.E-mail:daiwen127822@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41571100）；贵州省科学技术基金项目（黔科合LH字[2015]7632号）；湖南省重点学科建设项目（2011001）资助

The effect of climate change and human activities on runoff in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River

DAI Wen^{1 2}, LÜ Dianqing¹, LI Jingbao¹, WANG Jinfeng²

1. College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China;
2. Liupanshui Normal University, Liupanshui 553004, Guizhou, China

Received:2016-01-26 Revised:2016-03-20 Online:2016-04-25 Published:2016-07-13

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验和有序聚类方法，对长江中游5个水文站1961-2014年径流量进行突变检验，并应用降雨-径流多元线性经验模型，定量评估长江中游气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。研究结果表明：径流量多年来呈线性减少的趋势，随降水量的变化而变化。径流突变点为1968年和2006年，1969-2005年枝城、沙市、监利、城陵矶和螺山站控制流域人类活动对径流变化影响的贡献率分别为85.68%、50.89%、84.78%、89.81%和68.39%；2006-2014年人类活动的贡献率分别为88.40%、59.47%、82.86%、80.03%、63.63%，人类活动的贡献率高于气候变化。

关键词: 气候变化, 人类活动, 贡献率, 径流量变化, 降雨-径流多元线性经验模型, 长江中游

Abstract: The impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River were investigated with four approaches:the cumulative anomaly method, Mann-Kendall test, ordered clustering method and multiple linear empirical model. It is found that runoff has slowly decreased linearly for many years with precipitation change. 1968 and 2006 were the runoff abrupt change years.From 1969 through 2005, the human activities in the catchments controlled by Zhicheng, Shashi, Jianli, Chenglingji and Luoshan stations had contributed 85.68%, 50.89%, 84.78%, 89.81% and 68.39%, respectively, to the runoff decrease.From 2006 to 2014, the human activities in the catchments had contributed 88.40%, 59.47%, 82.86%, 80.03% and 63.63%, respectively, to the runoff decrease. The contribution ratio of human activity is higher than that of climate change.

Key words: climate change, human activity, contribution rate, runoff, rainfall-runoff empirical multivariate linear model, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River

中图分类号:

P333

代稳, 吕殿青, 李景保, 王金凤. 气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(2): 488-497.

DAI Wen, LÜ Dianqing, LI Jingbao, WANG Jinfeng. The effect of climate change and human activities on runoff in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2016, 38(2): 488-497.

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气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析

The effect of climate change and human activities on runoff in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River

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