北京-张家口地区冬春季积雪特征分析

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0065

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 2022年冬奥会将在北京-张家口（以下简称北-张地区）举办，揭示该地区的积雪变化特征及其在全球变暖背景下的发展趋势，对冬奥会的筹备以及当地的积雪资源的开发利用等方面都有重要意义。利用2002-2014年MODIS遥感积雪产品提取了研究区域积雪数据，结合1966-2013年台站积雪、气温和降水资料和DEM数据，分析了积雪的时空分布特征，并对冬奥会场地进行积雪资源评价。结果表明：2002-2013冬春年北张地区的整体积雪频率较小，多处于0~0.2之间，但场馆区2月的积雪频率多在0.5以上，最大值接近0.9左右，积雪的分布呈带状和点状。积雪覆盖率最大值出现在1月初，达到0.23。积雪的形成缓慢，但是消亡迅速。1966-2012冬春年冬季积雪日数的波动幅度大于春季，延庆和崇礼县的2月份积雪日数分别为4.6d和13.9d，且均呈下降状态。积雪初终日均有提前，但整体的积雪期在减少。北京和张家口整体的最大积雪深度变化平稳，在1966-1980年和2000-2012年处于高值区，波动较大，其他年份最大雪深处于低值变化平稳，延庆和崇礼县的2月份最大积雪深度分别为3.6cm和5.1cm。通过分析积雪指标与气象因子（气温、降水）的相关关系发现，在年内（年际）变化上，积雪指标与气温（降水）的关系更为密切。冬奥会场地的2月份气温在-14~2℃之间，月平均降水量仅0.2mm·d^-1，积雪日数不足，预计难以形成足够深度的雪，且未来气温上升，达到0.8℃·（10a）^-1，降水、积雪深度和积雪日数均呈下降趋势，可能60%~95%的赛事用雪将来自人造雪，以应对可能的积雪不足。

关键词: 冬奥会, MODIS, 积雪日数, 最大雪深, 人造雪

Abstract: Beijing and Zhangjiakou will hold the 2022 Winter Olympics.For organizing a successful Winter Olympics, it is important to investigate the temporal and spatial variations of snow cover in the past decades, especial the most recent decade, using winter and spring snow-cover data from MODIS from 2002 to 2014, DEM and meteorological data from 1966 to 2013.It is found that snow cover ratio was low, with the maximum of 0.23, and appeared at the beginning of January, averaged from 2002 through 2013.The deposition of snow was slow, but snow melting was rapid; the distribution of snow cover was patchy.The fluctuation of snow days in winter was larger than that in spring; in February the number of snow days in Yanqing (4.6 days) and Chongli (13.9 days) was declining.Meanwhile the beginning and ending dates of snow cover were earlier than that before, while the duration of snow cover was shortened.There were two periods of relatively high snow depth, 1966-1980 and 2000-2012, but with distinct annual fluctuations.The period between the above mentioned two periods was characterized with low snow depth.It is found that the correlations between snow cover and air temperature (precipitation) were higher in the seasonal and annual variations.Because of unsuitable temperature, less precipitation and inadequate snow days in the Winter Olympics Venues, there will probably be insufficient snow for the sports.And with rising in temperature and declining in precipitation, snow depth and snow days, 60%~95% of the venue's snow will have to depend on artificial snow, so as to meet the requirement of Winter Olympics Standards.

Key words: Winter Olympics, MODIS, snow cover days, maximum snow depth, artificial snow

中图分类号:

P426.63+5

肖王星, 效存德, 郭晓寅, 马丽娟. 北京-张家口地区冬春季积雪特征分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(3): 584-595.

XIAO Wangxing, XIAO Cunde, GUO Xiaoyan, Ma Lijuan. Winter and spring snow cover features in Beijing-Zhangjiakou Region[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2016, 38(3): 584-595.

参考文献

[1] Qin Dahe, Ding Yongjian.Cryospheric changes and their imapcts: present, trends and key issues[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2009, 5(4): 187-195.[秦大河, 丁永建.冰冻圈变化及其影响研究——现状、趋势及关键问题[J].气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(4): 187-195.]
[2] Shi Ying, Gao Xuejie, Wu Gui, et al.Simulation of the changes in snow cover over China under global warming by a high resolution RCM[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2010, 32(2): 215-222.[石英, 高学杰, 吴佳, 等.全球变暖对中国区域积雪变化影响的数值模拟[J].冰川冻土, 2010, 32(2): 215-222.]
[3] Zhang Tingjun, Zhong Xinyue.Classification and regionalization of the seasonal snow cover across the Eurasian continent[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(3): 481-490.[张廷军, 钟歆王月.欧亚大陆积雪分布及其类型划分[J].冰川冻土, 2014, 36(3): 481-490.]
[4] Wang Zhilan.Interannual variations of snow cover over China and possible changes in next 40 years[D].Lanzhou: Graduate School of Lanzhou University, 2011: 1-84.[王芝兰.中国地区积雪的年际变化特征及其未来40年的可能变化[D].兰州: 兰州大学研究生院, 2011: 1-84.]
[5] Li Peiji.Response of Xinjiang snow cover to climate change[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2001, 59(4): 491-501.[李培基.新疆积雪对气候变暖的响应[J].气象学报, 2001, 59(4): 491-501.]
[6] Han Lijuan.Analysis on climatic characteristics of snowfall in Zhangjiakou city in recent 53 years[J].Global Human Geography, 2014, 8(1): 52.[韩丽娟.张家口市近53年降雪气候特征分析[J].环球人文地理, 2014, 8(1): 52.]
[7] Jia Zhiqi, Wang Miao, Wang Xinning, et al.Analysis on the evolution of high-altitude situation of a snowfall process in Zhangjiakou[J].Agricultural Disaster Research, 2015, 5(2): 23-24.[贾志奇, 王淼, 王新宁, 等.张家口一次降雪天气过程高空形势演变分析[J].农业灾害研究, 2015, 5(2): 23-24.]
[8] Yi Qingju, Liu Yanying, Xu Chenhai.Synoptical and climatological analysis of snowfall from 1980 to 1994 in Beijing area[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1999, 10(2): 249-254.[仪清菊, 刘延英, 许晨海.北京1980-1994年降雪的天气气候分析[J].应用气象学报, 1999, 10(2): 249-254.]
[9] Brodzik M J, Armstrong R L.Recent northern hemisphere snow extent: a comparison of data derived from visible and microwave satellite sensors[J].Geophysical Research Letters, 2001, 28(19): 3673-3676.
[10] Zheng Pu, Deng Zhengdong, Guan Hongjun, et al.Study of the snow cover extraction method based on ETM+ data: Take Manas River basin as an example[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(5): 1151-1159.[郑璞, 邓正栋, 关洪军, 等.基于ETM+的积雪提取方法研究——以新疆玛纳斯河流域为例[J].冰川冻土, 2014, 36(5): 1151-1159.]
[11] Hu Yongqi, Huang Xiaodong, Wang Jian, et al.Snow cover mapping algorithm based on HJ-1B satellite data[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(1): 65-73.[何咏琪, 黄晓东, 方金, 等.基于HJ-1B卫星数据的积雪面积制图算法研究[J].冰川冻土, 2013, 35(1): 65-73.]
[12] Sun Shaobo, Che Tao.A review of the research on snow cover monitored with synthetic aperture radar (SAR)[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(3): 636-647.[孙少波, 车涛.基于合成孔径雷达(SAR)的积雪监测研究进展[J].冰川冻土, 2013, 35(3): 636-647.]
[13] Bai Yanchen, Feng Xuezhi.Introduction to some research work on snow remote sensing[J].Remote Sensing Technology and Application, 1997, 12(2): 59-65.[柏延臣, 冯学智.积雪遥感动态研究的现状及展望[J].遥感技术与应用, 1997, 12(2): 59-65.]
[14] Dietz A J, Wohner C, Kuenzer C.European snow cover characteristics between 2000 and 2011 derived from improved MODIS daily snow cover products[J].Remote Sensing, 2012, 4(8): 2432-2454.
[15] Ren Yanqun, Liu Hailong, Bao Anming, et al.Spatial and temporal characteristics of snow depth in the Tianshan Mountains derived from SSM/I and MODIS data[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2015, 37(5): 1178-1187.[任艳群, 刘海隆, 包安明, 等.基于SSM/I和MODIS数据的天山山区积雪深度时空特征分析[J].冰川冻土, 2015, 37(5): 1178-1187.]
[16] Mauer E P, Rhoads J D, Dubayah R O, et al.Ecakuation of the snow-coverd area data product from MODIS[J].Hydrological Processes, 2003, 17(1): 59-71.
[17] Ma Lijuan.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau in recent 50 years and its relationship with atmospheric circulation factors[D].Beijing: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences/Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2008: 1-156.[马丽娟.近50年青藏高原积雪的时空变化特征及其与大气环流因子的关系[D].北京: 中国气象科学研究院/中国科学院研究生院, 2008: 1-156.]
[18] Li Mengyun, Liu Zhihong, Liu Shaoming, et al.Temporal and spatial distribution of snow cover in Xinjiang from 2002 to 2011[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(5): 1095-1102.[娄梦筠, 刘志红, 娄少明, 等.2002-2011年新疆积雪时空分布特征研究[J].冰川冻土, 2013, 35(35): 1095-1102.]
[19] Zhong Guixin, Song Kaishan, Wang Zongming, et al.Verification and comparison of the MODIS and AMSR-E snow cover products in northeast China[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2010, 32(6): 1262-1269.[仲桂新, 宋开山, 王宗明, 等.东北地区MODIS 和AMSR-E 积雪产品验证及对比[J].冰川冻土, 2010, 32(6): 1262-1269.]
[20] Ba Sang, Yang Xiuhai, La Zhen, et al.Variation of snow cover over Tibet Autonomous Region based on multi-source data[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(5): 1023-1030.[巴桑, 杨秀海, 拉珍, 等.基于多源数据的西藏地区积雪变化趋势分析[J].冰川冻土, 2012, 34(5): 1023-1030.]
[21] Wang Yetang, He Yong, Hou Shugui.Analysis of the temporal and spatial variations of snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau based on MODIS[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2007, 29(6): 855-861.[王叶堂, 何勇, 侯书贵.2000-2005年青藏高原积雪时空变化分析[J].冰川冻土, 2007, 29(6): 855-861.]
[22] Jia Xiang, Chen Shujiang, Huang Tiecheng, et al.Variability of snow cover in the mountain region of the Yarkant River basin analyzed with MODIS data[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(2): 296-303.[贾翔, 陈蜀江, 黄铁成, 等.基于MODIS数据的新疆叶尔羌河流域山区积雪特征分析[J].冰川冻土, 2014, 36(2): 296-303.]
[23] Zhang Jiahua, Wu Yang, Yao Fengmei, et al.Analyses of recent Xinjiang snow cover feature utilizing satellite remote sensing and surface observation data[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2008, 27(3): 551-557.[张佳华, 吴杨, 姚凤梅, 等.利用卫星遥感和地面实测积雪资料分析近年新疆积雪特征[J].冰川冻土, 2008, 27(3): 551-557.]
[24] Cai Dihua, Guo Ni, Wang Xing, et al.The spatial and temporal variations of snow cover over the Qilian Mountains based on MODIS data[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2009, 31(6): 1028-1036.[蔡迪花, 郭铌, 王兴, 等.基于MODIS的祁连山区积雪时空变化特征[J].冰川冻土, 2009, 31(6): 1028-1036.]
[25] Dou Yan, Chen Xi, Bao Anming, et al.Study of the temporal and spatial distribute of the snow cover in the Tianshan Mountains, China[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2010, 32(1): 28-34.[窦燕, 陈曦, 包安明, 等.2000-2006年中国天山山区积雪时空分布特征研究[J].冰川冻土, 2010, 32(1): 28-34]
[26] He Liye, Li Dongliang.Classification of snow cover days and comparing with satellite remote sensing data in west China[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2011, 33(2): 237-245.[何丽烨, 李栋梁.中国西部积雪日数类型划分及与卫星遥感结果的比较[J].冰川冻土, 2011, 33(2): 237-245.]
[27] Wang Chunxue, Li Dongliang.Spatial-temporal variations of snow cover days and the maximum depth of snow cover in China during recent 50 Years[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(2): 247-256.[王春学, 李栋梁.中国近50 a积雪日数与最大积雪深度的时空变化规律[J].冰川冻土, 2012, 34(2): 247-256.]
[28] Hu Liqun, Li Shuai, Liang Fengchao.Analysis of the variation characteristics of snow covers in Xinjiang region during recent 50 years[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35 (4): 793-800.[胡列群, 李帅, 梁凤超.新疆区域近50 a积雪变化特征分析[J].冰川冻土, 2013, 35(4): 793-800.]
[29] Hall D K, Riggs G A.Accuracy assessment of the MODIS snow products[J].Hydrological Processes, 2007, 21(12): 1534-1547.
[30] Ding Yongjian, Xiao Cunde.Challenges in the study of cryospheric changes and their impacts[J].Advances in Earth Science, 2013, 28(10): 1067-1076.[丁永建, 效存德.冰冻圈变化及其影响研究的主要科学问题概论[J].地球科学进展, 2013, 28(10): 1067-1076.]
[31] Zhao Zhe, Chang Xiaoyu.Discussion on environmental impact assessment of construction project of ski resorts[J].Environmental Science and Management, 2007, 32(9): 177-179.[赵哲, 常晓宇.浅谈滑雪场建设项目环境影响评价[J].环境科学与管理, 2007, 32(9): 177-179.]
[32] Xu Qihui, Fan Yinqi, Yu Changwen, et al.Analysis of climatic for constructing ski resort[J].Meteorological Science and Technology, 2014, 42(5): 938-944.[许启慧, 范引琪, 于长文, 等.滑雪场建设气候条件分析[J].气象科技, 2014, 42(5): 938-944.]