1971-2010年内蒙古干湿变化特征及对水资源影响

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0082

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1971-2010年内蒙古地区96个气象站的月降水量、月平均气温、月平均风速等气象资料，通过FAO Penman-Monteith 潜在蒸散量计算模型作为基础计算干湿指数，采用气候倾向率、滑动平均等数理统计方法，分析了1971-2010年内蒙古地区干湿指数的变化趋势及空间分布规律并划分出5 种干湿地区类型，探讨了干湿指数与降水量、日照时数、相对湿度等气象因子之间的关系。结果表明：近40a内蒙古地区年干湿指数呈略下降趋势，其变化倾向率为-0.003·（10a）^-1，20世纪90年代中期以来年干湿指数呈减少趋势。在地理分布上年干湿指数存在较大的差异性，自东向西逐渐递减，高值中心位于内蒙古大兴安岭东北部，低值中心在内蒙古巴丹吉林沙漠北部。在全球气候变暖的背景下，90年代后干湿指数下降明显，尤其是在内蒙古东部地区，干湿类型明显由湿向干转变，降水减少、区域增温是该地区干旱化的主要原因。内蒙古地区干湿变化主要的气候影响因子是降水量，相关系数在0.9以上，其次是日照时数、相对湿度、潜在蒸散量，相关系数在0.6~0.7之间。近10a来内蒙古地区水资源总量急剧下降，与近些年来地表干湿状况的变化有一定的关系。

关键词: 内蒙古地区, 干湿指数, 影响因素

Abstract: Based on the meteorological data,such as monthly precipitation,mean temperature,mean wind speed,from 96 representative stations in Inner Mongolia from 1971 through 2010,the potential evapotranspiration and aridity index were calculated with Penman-Monteith model. The characteristics of spatial-temporal of aridity in Inner Mongolia were discussed by using mathematical statistics of climate tendency rate and moving average. The consequences of aridity change were discussed. The relations between aridity index and water resources, precipitation,sunshine duration,relative humidity and meteorological factors were discussed also in this paper. The results show that(1)from 1971 through 2010,in Inner Mongolia the aridity index had decreased with a decreasing rate of -0.003·(10a)^-1;aridity index had great spatial differences,gradually decreasing from east to west;a high center was in the northeast of Inner Mongolia (Northeast of Daxing'an Mountains)and a low center took place in northern Badain Jaran Desert;(2)since the 1990s,under the background of global warming,aridity index has decreased obviously in Inner Mongolia,especially in the east;aridity type has changed from wet to dry significantly;climate has been characterized by dry and warm due to reduction of precipitation and regional warming;(3)precipitation was the primary factor to the climate change(with correlation coefficient r>0.9), followed by sunshine duration,relative humidity. Water resources have decreased sharply in Inner Mongolia during the past decade,which may have something to do with the change in aridity conditions.

Key words: Inner Mongolia, aridity index, influence factors

中图分类号:

P467

安莉娟. 1971-2010年内蒙古干湿变化特征及对水资源影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(3): 732-740.

AN Lijuan. Aridity variation and its impact on water resources in Inner Mongolia from 1971 through 2010[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2016, 38(3): 732-740.

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