基于互补相关理论的塔里木河流域实际蒸散发时空变化及影响因素分析

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0084

冰川冻土 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 750-760.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0084

基于互补相关理论的塔里木河流域实际蒸散发时空变化及影响因素分析

蹇东南^{1 4}, 李修仓^{2 3}, 陶辉¹, 黄金龙^{1 4}, 苏布达^{1 2 3 5}

1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830011;
2. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/地理与遥感学院, 江苏南京 210044;
3. 国家气候中心, 北京 100081;
4. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
5. Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, Germany

收稿日期:2016-02-10 修回日期:2016-05-19 出版日期:2016-06-25 发布日期:2016-09-21
通讯作者: 苏布达,E-mail:subd@cma.gov.cn. E-mail:subd@cma.gov.cn
作者简介:蹇东南(1992-),女,四川巴中人,中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所在读硕士研究生,主要从事气候变化与水文水资源研究.E-mail:jiandnglm@163.com
基金资助:
中组部千人计划项目（Y474171）；国家自然科学青年基金项目（41401056）；新疆维吾尔自治区高层次引进人才项目（Y642091001）资助

Spatio-temporal variation of actual evapotranspiration and its influence factors in the Tarim River basin based on the complementary relationship approach

JIAN Dongnan^{1 4}, LI Xiucang^{2 3}, TAO Hui¹, HUANG Jinlong^{1 4}, SU Buda^{1 2 3 5}

1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ürümqi 830011, China;
2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/School of Remote Sensing, Najing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
3. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
5. Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, Germany

Received:2016-02-10 Revised:2016-05-19 Online:2016-06-25 Published:2016-09-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于1961-2013年塔里木河流域26个气象站逐日观测资料及阿克苏河流域与和田河流域水文站逐日径流资料，采用基于互补相关理论的平流-干旱（advection-aridity，AA）模型，计算并分析塔里木河流域实际蒸散发（ETa）时空变化特征，研究ETa与下垫面供水及气象要素的关系，探讨塔里木河流域ETa变化的可能原因。结果表明：（1）ETa与潜在蒸散发（ETp）呈现良好的互补关系，AA模型能够用来估算塔里木河流域的ETa。（2）塔里木河流域多年平均ETa为252.0mm·a^-1，1961-2013年呈现先增后减（以1996年为转折）、总体增加（11.1mm·（10a）^-1）的趋势。ETa在1990s最高，1980s次之，随后为2000s、1960s、1970s。各季节ETa大小为：夏季> 春季> 秋季> 冬季。（3）塔里木河流域ETa在源区较高，流域中部和东南部较低；流域大部分地区ETa呈显著的增加趋势。（4）1961-2013年，流域ETa的增加主要由下垫面供水条件（径流和降水）以及实际水汽压的增加引起；1997年后ETa的减少是由径流和实际水汽压的减少所致。

关键词: 实际蒸散发, 平流-干旱模型, 时空变化, 影响因素, 塔里木河流域

Abstract: The complementary relationship between actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and potential evapotranspiration (ETp) was verified, of which ETa was estimated by water balance and ETp was calculated by Penman firstly, in the Tarim River basin (TRB) in the arid inland region of Northwest China.The advection-aridity model based on complementary relationship was calibrated by the ETa estimated by water balance and is proved that it can be applied to the TRB.The research results show that average ETa in the basin is about 252.0 mm·a^-1.An overall upward trend of ETa had been significant from 1961 to 2013, with a rate of 11.1 mm ·(10a)^-1.However, it has decreased since 1996.The strongest ETa occurred in summer (155.2 mm·a^-1), followed by spring (58.4 mm·a^-1), autumn (33.7 mm·a^-1) and winter (4.8 mm·a^-1).ETa had increased significantly since the 1980s till the end of the 1990s, and then it had decreased, and the ETa in the 1990s was higher than that in other decades, followed by that in the 1980s, 2000s, 1960s and 1970s.The spatial distributions of annual and seasonal ETa were mostly consistent, with generally higher ETa in the sources of TRB, while lower ETa in the lower reaches of the river.The increasing ETa was closely related to the increasing water supply (runoff in mountain edge and precipitation both), together with actual vapour pressure increase from 1961 through 2013.The decline of ETa after 1996 has been caused by decreasing both of runoff in mountain edge and actual vapour pressure.

Key words: actual evapotranspiration, advection-aridity model, spatio-temporal variation, influence factors, Tarim River basin

中图分类号:

P426.2

蹇东南, 李修仓, 陶辉, 黄金龙, 苏布达. 基于互补相关理论的塔里木河流域实际蒸散发时空变化及影响因素分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(3): 750-760.

JIAN Dongnan, LI Xiucang, TAO Hui, HUANG Jinlong, SU Buda. Spatio-temporal variation of actual evapotranspiration and its influence factors in the Tarim River basin based on the complementary relationship approach[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2016, 38(3): 750-760.

参考文献

[1] Jung M, Reichstein M, Ciais P, et al.Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply[J].Nature, 2010, 467(7318): 951-954.
[2] Dolman A J, De Jeu R A M.Evaporation in focus[J].Nature Geoscience, 2010, 3(5): 296-296.
[3] Oki T, Kanae S.Global hydrological cycles and world water resources[J].Science, 2006, 313(5790): 1068-1072.
[4] Courault D, Seguin B, Olioso A.Review to estimate evapotranspiration from remote sensing data: Some examples from the simplified relationship to the use of mesoscale atmospheric models[C]//ICID workshop on remote sensing of ET for large regions, 2003, 17: 1-18.
[5] Liu Shaomin, Sun Rui, Sun Zhongping, et al.Comparison of Different Complementary Relationship Models for regional evapotranspiration estimation[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 6(59): 4289-4291.[刘绍民, 孙睿, 孙中平, 等.基于互补相关原理的区域蒸散量估算模型比较[J].地理学报, 2004, 59(3): 331-340.]
[6] Allen R G, Pereira L S, Howell T A, et al.Evapotranspiration information reporting: I.Factors governing measurement accuracy[J].Agricultural Water Management, 2011, 98(6): 899-920.
[7] Wang K C, Dickinson R E.A review of global terrestrial evapotranspiration: Observation, modeling, climatology, and climatic variability[J].Reviews of Geophysics, 2012, 50(2): 1-45.
[8] Shi Yubo, Liu Keyan.The model about complementary relationship of evapotranspiration and its application[J].Journal of China Hydrology, 1988, 8(2): 8-13.[石玉波, 刘克岩.互补相关陆面蒸散发模型及其应用[J].水文, 1988, 8(2): 8-13.]
[9] Bouchet R J.Evapotranspiration réelle et potentielle, signification climatique[J].IAHS Publ, 1963, 62: 134-142.
[10] Brutsaert W, Stricker H.An advection-aridity approach to estimate actual regional evapotranspiration[J].Water resources research, 1979, 15(2): 443-450.
[11] Granger R J, Gray D M.Evaporation from natural no saturated surfaces[J].Journal of Hydrology, 1989, 111(1): 21-29.
[12] Morton F I.Operational estimates of areal evapotranspiration and their significance to the science and practice of hydrology[J].Journal of Hydrology, 1983, 66(1): 1-76.
[13] Lemeur R, Zhang L.Evaluation of three evapotranspiration models in terms of their applicability for an arid region[J].Journal of Hydrology, 1990, 114(3): 395-411.
[14] Xu Chongyu, Singh V P.Evaluation of three complementary relationship evapotranspiration models by water balance approach to estimate actual regional evapotranspiration in different climatic regions[J].Journal of Hydrology, 2005, 308(1): 105-121.
[15] Jaksa W T, Sridhar V, Huntington J L, et al.Evaluation of the complementary relationship using Noah Land Surface Model and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data to estimate evapotranspiration in semiarid ecosystems[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2013, 14(1): 345-359.
[16] Hobbins M T, Ramírez J A, Brown T C, et al.The complementary relationship in estimation of regional evapotranspiration: The complementary relationship areal evapotranspiration and advection-aridity models[J].Water Resources Research, 2001, 37(5): 1367-1387.
[17] Shang Songhao, Sun Liyan, Hao Zengchao.Using complementary relationship to estimate monthly evapotranspiration in arid oasis[J].Journal of China Hydrology, 2008, 28(3): 67-69.[尚松浩, 孙丽艳, 郝增超.互补相关原理在绿洲月蒸发量估算中的应用[J].水文, 2008, 28(3): 67-69.]
[18] Li Baofu, Chen Yaning, Li Weihong, et al.Remote sensing and the SEBAL model for estimating evapotranspiration in the Tarim River[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(9): 1230-1238.[李宝富, 陈亚宁, 李卫红, 等.基于遥感和SEBAL模型的塔里木河干流区蒸散发估算[J].地理学报, 2011, 66(9): 1230-1238.]
[19] Guo Shuhai, Yang Guojing, Li Qingfeng, et al.Observation and estimation of the evapotranspiration alpine meadow in the upper reaches of the Aksu River Xinjiang[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2015, 37(1): 241-248.[郭淑海, 杨国靖, 李清峰, 等.新疆阿克苏河上游高寒草甸蒸散发观测与估算[J].冰川冻土, 2015, 37(1): 241-248.]
[20] Huntington T G.Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: review and synthesis[J].Journal of Hydrology, 2006, 319(1): 83-95.
[21] Chen Yaning, Yang Qing, Luo Yi, et al.Ponder on the issues of water resources in the arid region of northwest China[J].Arid Land Geography, 2012, 35(1): 1-9.[陈亚宁, 杨青, 罗毅, 等.西北干旱区水资源问题研究思考[J].干旱区地理, 2012, 35(1): 1-9.]
[22] Qin Dayong, Lü Jinyan, Liu Jiahong, et al.Theories and calculation methods for regional objective ET[J].Chinese Science Bulletin, 2009, 54(1): 150-157.
[23] Chen Yaning, Su Buda, Tao Hui, et al.China climate change impact report: Tarim River basin[M].China Meteorological Press, 2014.[陈亚宁, 苏布达, 陶辉, 等.塔里木河流域气候变化影响评估报告[M].北京: 气象出版社, 2014.]
[24] Jiang Yuanan, Liu Jing, Shao Weiling, et al.Climatic characteristics and historical evolution of precipitation in different time scales in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2013[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(6): 1363-1375.[江远安, 刘精, 邵伟玲, 等.1961-2013年新疆不同时间尺度降水量的气候特征及其历史演变规律[J].冰川冻土, 2014, 36(6): 1363-1375.]
[25] Feng Tong, Liu Shiyin, Xu Junli, et al.Glacier change of the Yarkant River basin from 1968 to 2009 derived from the First and Second Glacier Inventories of China[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2015, 37(1): 1-13.[冯童, 刘时银, 许君利, 等.1968-2009年叶尔羌河流域冰川变化基于第一、二次中国冰川编目数据[J].冰川冻土, 2015, 37(1): 1-13.]
[26] Shen Yongping, Su Hongchao, Wang Guoya, et al.The responses of glacier sand snow cover to climate change in Xinjiang (Ⅰ): Hydrological effects[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(6): 513-527.[沈永平, 苏宏超, 王国亚, 等.新疆冰川、积雪对气候变化的响应(Ⅰ): 水文效应[J].冰川冻土, 2013(3): 513-527.]
[27] Gao Xin, Ye Baisheng, Zhang Shiqiang, et al.Glacier runoff variation and its influence on river runoff during 1961-2006 in the Tarim River Basin, China[J].Science in China (Series D: Earth Science), 2010, 53(6): 880-891.[高鑫, 叶柏生, 张世强, 等.1961-2006年塔里木河流域冰川融水变化及其对径流的影响[J].中国科学(D辑: 地球科学), 2010, 40(5): 654-665.]
[28] Wang Guoya, Shen Yongping, Su Hongchao, et al.Runoff changes in Aksu River Basin during 1956-2006 and their impacts on water availability for Tarim River[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2008, 30(4): 562-568.[王国亚, 沈永平, 苏宏超, 等.1956-2006年阿克苏河径流变化及其对区域水资源安全的可能影响[J].冰川冻土, 2008, 30(4): 562-568.]
[29] Tao Hui, Song yudong, Xu Hailiang, et al.Variation charcateristics of mountains runoff in the Kaidu River basin, Tianshan Mountains[J].Arid Land Geography, 2007, 30(1): 43-48.[陶辉, 宋郁东, 邹世平, 等.开都河天山出山径流量年际变化特征与洪水频率分析[J].干旱区地理, 2007, 30(1): 43-48.]
[30] Gao Xin, Zhang Shiqiang, Ye Baisheng, et al.Glacier runoff change in the upper stream of Yarkant River and its impact on river runoff during 1961-2006[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2010, 32(3): 445-453.[高鑫, 张世强, 叶柏生, 等.1961-2006年叶尔羌河上游流域冰川融水变化及其对径流的影响[J].冰川冻土, 2010, 32(3): 445-453.]
[31] Ren Zhihua, Xiong Anyuan.Operational system development on three-step quality control of observations from AWS[J].Meteorological Monthly, 2007, 33(1): 19-24.[任芝花, 熊安元.地面自动站观测资料三级质量控制业务系统的研制[J].气象, 2007, 33(1): 19-24.]
[32] Penman H L.Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass[C]//Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.The Royal Society, 1948, 193(1032): 120-145.
[33] Priestley C H B, Taylor R J.On the assessment of surface heat flux and evaporation using large-scale parameters[J].Monthly Weather Review, 1972, 100(2): 81-92.
[34] Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, et al.Crop evapotranspiration[M]//Guide-lines for computing crop water requirements.In FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, 1998: 26-40.
[35] Mann H B.Nonparametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1945, 13(3): 245-259.
[36] Kendall M G.Rank Correlation Methods[M].Oxford, England: Griffin, 1948.
[37] Shepard D.A two-dimensional interpolation function for irregularly-spaced data[C]//Proceedings of the 1968 23rd ACM national conference.ACM, 1968: 517-524.
[38] Pearson K.Note on regression and inheritance in the case of two parents[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, 1895, 58: 240-242.
[39] Milly P C D, Dunne K A.Trends in evaporation and surface cooling in the Mississippi River Basin[J].Geophysical Research Letters, 2001, 28(7): 1219 1222.
[40] Roderick M L, Farquhar G D.Changes in Australian pan evaporation from 1970 to 2002[J].International Journal of Climatology, 2004, 24(9): 1077-1090.
[41] Liu Bo, Ma Zhuguo, Feng Jingming, et al.The relationship between pan evaporate and actual evapotranspiration in Xinjiang since 1960[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(11): 1131-1139.[刘波, 马柱国, 冯锦明, 等.1960年以来新疆地区蒸发皿蒸发与实际蒸发之间的关系[J].地理学报, 2008, 63(11): 1131-1139.]
[42] Gao Ge, Chen Deliang, Xu Chongyu, et al.Trend of estimated actual evapotranspiration over China during 1960-2002[J].Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2007, 112(D11).
[43] Wen Shanshan, Jiang Tong, Li Xiucang, et al.Changes of Actual Evapotranspiration over the Songhua River basin from 1961 to 2010[J].Advance in Climate Change Research, 2014, 10(2): 79-86.[温姗姗, 姜彤, 李修仓, 等.1961-2010年松花江流域实际蒸散发时空变化及影响要素分析[J].气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(2): 79-86.]
[44] Li Xiucang, Jiang Tong, Wen ShanShan, et al.Spatio-temporal variation of actual evapotranspiration and its relation with climate parameters in the Pearl River basin, China[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology.In press.
[45] Wang Yanjun, Jiang Tong, Liu Bo.Trends of Estimated and Simulated Actual Evapotranspiration in the Yangtze River Basin[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(9): 1079-1088.[王艳君, 姜彤, 刘波.长江流域实际蒸发量的变化趋势[J].地理学报, 2010, 65(9): 1079-1088.]

基于互补相关理论的塔里木河流域实际蒸散发时空变化及影响因素分析

Spatio-temporal variation of actual evapotranspiration and its influence factors in the Tarim River basin based on the complementary relationship approach

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 2

[1]	路倩, 李宝富, 王志慧, 孙佳瑶, 仝天. 1979-2014年东北地区雪深时空变化与大气环流的关系[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(5): 907-915.
[2]	樊茹霞, 孙俊英, 张璐, 沈小静, 张养梅, 车浩驰, 夏灿. 大气气溶胶密度观测研究进展[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(5): 925-933.
[3]	任媛, 刘普幸. 基于EVI和MNDWI指数的石羊河流域水体、植被时空变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(4): 853-861.
[4]	高雅芳, 王雷, 杜海波, 吴正方, 杨岳, 郭湘宇, 李思其. 长白山苔原带土壤温度与肥力随海拔的变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(4): 702-714.
[5]	刘叶叶, 毛德华, 杨家亮, 钱湛. 1990-2016年湘江干流水质变化特征及影响因素分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(4): 820-827.
[6]	梁鹏斌, 李忠勤, 张慧, 王飞腾, 牟建新, 何海迪. 1984-2016年全球参照冰川物质平衡时空变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(3): 415-425.
[7]	高思如, 曾文钊, 吴青柏, 蒋观利, 张中琼. 1990-2014年西藏季节冻土最大冻结深度的时空变化[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(2): 223-230.
[8]	何瑞霞, 金会军, 赵淑萍, 邓友生. 冻土导热系数研究现状及进展[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(1): 116-126.
[9]	文广超, 王文科, 段磊, 李一鸣, 赵佳辉. 青海柴达木盆地巴音河上游径流量对气候变化和人类活动的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(1): 136-144.
[10]	尚海洋, 丁杨, 宋妮妮. 影响流域生态补偿中生态工人创新机制的因素分析——以石羊河流域为例[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(6): 1357-1364.
[11]	张钰鑫, 谢昌卫, 赵林, 吴通华, 庞强强, 刘广岳, 王武, 刘文惠. 青藏高原可可西里卓乃湖溃决出露湖底多年冻土形成过程的监测与模拟[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(5): 949-956.
[12]	王玥彤, 李栋梁. 中国西南地区冻雨灾害特征分析与评估[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(5): 967-978.
[13]	蒋友严, 杜文涛, 黄进, 赵慧珍, 王成福. 2000-2015年祁连山植被变化分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(5): 1130-1136.
[14]	马晓华, 赵景波, 温震军. 鄂尔多斯高原西南部清代霜雪灾害研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(3): 498-504.
[15]	栗晓林, 王红坚, 邹少军, 马浩诚, 牛永红. 循环荷载下冻土变形特性研究现状及冻土开挖问题[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(1): 92-101.