1957-2007年东北地区负积温时空演变

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0178

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

作为冬季寒冷程度的指标之一，负积温的变动在理论上可能与冻土发育程度有一定的关系。选用EOF分解、连续小波变换等方法对东北地区81个气象站点1957-2007年的负积温进行分析，以探究其变化的时间序列及空间分异规律，及其与冻土退化、平均温变化间的关系。结果表明，东北地区负积温呈全区一致性上升趋势，且增温率由西南向东北递增。全区经历明显的降温-增温-降温阶段，大兴安岭地区、小兴安岭北部及以北地区高温期短、振幅较大，年际变差更明显。除黑龙江北部、内蒙古东部以外，全区负积温最低、最高及突变年份一致，表现出全球气候变化下负积温变动的区域同步性。负积温增温与冻土退化及年平均温度的上升具有较良好的一致性。

关键词: 负积温, 冻土, 气候变化, 东北地区

Abstract:

The negative accumulated temperature is an index of cold degree in winter. Theoretically, its change associates with permafrost development. In this paper, empirical orthogonal function, wavelet transform, as well as cluster analysis, are used to analyze the negative accumulated temperature in Northeast China, aiming to explore the spatial and temporal variations of negative accumulated temperature, to acquire its relation with permafrost degeneration and annual mean temperature change. The results showed that from 1957 to 2007, the negative accumulated temperature in Northeast China, which was calculated from 81 meteorological observation stations, had increased. The increase rate during the 51 years had decreased progressively from northeast to southwest of the study area. From 1957 through 2007, the study area can be divided into three periods according to the negative accumulated temperature, i.e., cold, warm and cold periods. In the Da Hinggan Mountains and the northern Xiao Hinggan Mountains, The warm periods were shorter, with large annual and interannual amplitudes of vibration. Except in north of Heilongjiang Province and east of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the lowest, highest and mutation years of negative accumulated temperature were the same, which indicated the regional synchronization of accumulated temperature change. The increase of negative accumulated temperature was in accordance with permafrost degradation and the increase in annual mean temperature.

Key words: negarive accumulated temperature, permafrost, climate change, Northeast China

中图分类号:

P642.14

冯滢瑛, 李卓仑. 1957-2007年东北地区负积温时空演变[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(6): 1529-1537.

FENG Yingying, LI Zhuolun. Spatial and temporal evolution of the negative accumulated temperature in Northeast China from 1957 through 2007[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2016, 38(6): 1529-1537.

参考文献

[1] Chang Xiaoli, Jin Huijun, He Ruixia, et al. Review of permafrost monitoring in the northern Da Hinggan Mountains, Northeast China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(1):93-100.[常晓丽, 金会军, 何瑞霞, 等. 大兴安岭北部多年冻土检测进展[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(1):93-100.]

[2] He Ruixia, Jin Huijun, Lü Lanzhi, et al. Recent changes of permafrost and cold regions environments in the northern part of northeastern China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2009, 31(3):525-531.[何瑞霞, 金会军, 吕兰芝, 等. 东北北部冻土退化与寒区生态环境变化[J]. 冰川冻土, 2009, 31(3):525-531.]

[3] Chen Bo, Li Jianping. Characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of seasonal and short-term frozen soil in China in recent 50 years[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2008, 32(3):432-443.[陈博, 李建平. 近50年来中国季节性冻土与短时冻土的时空变化特征[J]. 大气科学, 2008, 32(3):432-443.]

[4] He Ruixia, Jin Huijun, Chang Xiaoli, et al. Degradation of permafrost in the northern part of northeastern China:Present and casual analysis[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2009, 31(5):829-834.[何瑞霞, 金会军, 常晓丽, 等. 东北北部多年冻土的退化现状及原因分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2009, 31(5):829-834.]

[5] Wang Chenghai, Jin Shuanglong, Shi Hongxia. Area change of the frozen ground in China in the next 50 yeats[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(1):1-8.[王澄海, 靳双龙, 施红霞. 未来50 a中国地区冻土面积分布变化[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(1):1-8.]

[6] Jin Huijun, Li Shuxun, Wang Shaoling, et al. Impacts of climatic change on permafrost and cold regions environments in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinca, 2000, 55(2):161-173.[金会军, 李述训, 王绍令, 等. 气候变化对中国多年冻土和寒区环境的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2000, 55(2):161-173.]

[7] Wang Genxu, Li Yuanshou, Wu Qingbai, et al. Impacts of permafrost changes on alpine ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Science in China (Series D:Earth Sciences), 2006, 49(11):1156-1169.

[8] Liu Minghao, Sun Zhizhong, Niu Fujun, et al. Variation characteristics of the permafrost along the Qinghai Tibet Railway under the background of climate change[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(5):1122-1130.[刘明浩, 孙志忠, 牛富俊, 等. 气候变化背景下青藏铁路沿线多年冻土变化特征研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(5):1122-1130.]

[9] Yang Jianping, Yang Suiqiao, Li Man, et al. Vulnerability of frozen ground to climate change in China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(6):1436-1445.[杨建平, 杨岁桥, 李曼, 等. 中国冻土对气候变化的脆弱性[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(6):1436-1445.]

[10] Gao Guiqin, Qi Zuohui. Impact of negative accumulated temperature variation on winter wheat[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2007, 35(3):404-406.[高桂芹, 齐作辉. 冬季负积温变化特征及其对冬小麦的影响[J]. 气象科技, 2007, 35(3):404-406.]

[11] Zhang Shanqing, Pu Zongchao, Li Jinglin, et al. Response of the maximum depth of seasonal freezing to the cumulated negative temperature in Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(6):1419-1427.[张山清, 普宗朝, 李景林, 等. 1961-2010年新疆季节性最大冻土深度对冬季负积温的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(6):1419-1427.]

[12] Gao Qingjiu, Zhang Rong, Guan Zhaoyong. Characteristics of the negative accumulated temperature change in North China in recent 50 years[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 2012, 35(4):448-457.[高庆九, 张荣, 管兆勇. 近50 a来华北地区负积温变化特征[J]. 大气科学学报, 2012, 35(4):448-457.]

[13] Yang Xiaoli, Xin Jiwu. The change characteristics and trend prediction of negative accumulated temperature in Gansu Province[J]. Resources Science, 2007, 29(4):114-120.[杨小利, 辛吉武. 甘肃省冬季负积温资源的变化特征及预测[J]. 资源科学, 2007, 29(4):114-120.]

[14] Ji Ruipeng, Zhang Yushu, Feng Rui, et al. Characteristics of geographical distribution of negative accumulated temperature in Liaoning Province[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2005, 33(4):360-362.[纪瑞鹏, 张玉书, 冯锐, 等. 辽宁省负积温地理分布特征与模拟[J]. 气象科技, 2005, 33(4):360-362.]

[15] Sang Jianren, Liu Yulan, Han Shitao, et al. Character of the climate change for the negative accumulated temperature in Ningxia[J]. Scientia Meteorologica Scinica, 2007, 27(2):202-207.[桑建人, 刘玉兰, 韩世涛, 等. 宁夏冬季负积温变化特征[J]. 气象科学, 2007, 27(2):202-207.]

[16] Chen Jianwen, Liu Yaowu, Xu Xiaohong, et al. Variation and trend prediction of winter negative accumulated temperature in Shanbei and Weibei regions[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2003, 24 (2):9-12.[陈建文, 刘耀武, 徐小红, 等. 陕北、渭北冬季负积温变化特征及趋势预测[J]. 中国农业气象, 2003, 24(2):9-12.]

[17] Gu Wei, Shi Peijun, Liu Yang, et al. The characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of negative accumulated temperature in Bohai Sea and north Yellow Sea[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2002, 17(2):168-173.[顾卫, 史培军, 刘杨, 等. 渤海和黄海北部地区负积温资源的时空分布特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2002, 17(2):168-173.]

[18] Wang Yirong. Evolvement of the cumulative temperatures in China Loess Plateau[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2007, 29(1):119-125.[王毅荣. 1961-2005年黄土高原地区积温演变[J]. 冰川冻土, 2007, 29(1):119-125.]

[19] Li Juxiang, Guo Hongjie, Gu Yongli, et al. Analysis on the trend and negative accumulated temperature characteristics in the Southern Hebei[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2011, 39(33):20855-20856.[李菊香, 郭洪杰, 谷永利, 等. 冀南地区冬季负积温特征及趋势分析[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2011, 39(33):20855-20856.]

[20] He Wei, Bu Rencang, Xiong Zaiping, et al. Characteristics of temperature and precipitation in northeastern China from 1961 to 2005[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2013, 33(2):519-531.[贺伟, 布仁仓, 熊在平, 等. 1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J]. 生态学报, 2013, 33(2):519-531.]

[21] Chang K T. Introduction to geographic information systems[M]. 5th ed. Boston:McGraw-Hill International Education, 2006.

[22] Kawamura R. A rotated EOF analysis of global sea surface temperature variability with interannual and interdecadal scales[J]. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 1994, 24(3):707-715.

[23] Beckers J M, Rixen M. EOF calculations and data filling from incomplete oceanographic datasets[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2003, 20(12):1839-1856.

[24] Cheng Xinhua, Nitsche G, Wallace J M. Robustness of low-frequency circulation patterns derived from EOF and rotated EOF analyses[J]. Journal of Climate, 1995, 8(6):1709-1713.

[25] Chen Yanguang. Geographical data analysis with Matlab[M]. Beijing:Higher Education Press, 2012:296-297.[陈彦光. 基于Matlab的地理数据分析[M]. 北京:高等教育出版社, 2012:296-297.]

[26] Daubechies I. The wavelet transform, time-frequency localization and signal analysis[J]. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 1990, 36(5):961-1005.

[27] Wang Wensheng, Ding Jing, Xiang Honglian. Multiple time scales analysis of hydrological time series with wavelet transform[J]. Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition), 2002, 34(6):14-17.[王文圣, 丁晶, 向红莲. 水文时间序列多时间尺度分析的小波变换法[J]. 四川大学学报(工程科学版), 2002, 34(6):14-17.]

[28] Grinsted A, Moore J C, Jevrejeva S. Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series[J]. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2004, 11(5/6):561-566.

[29] Mallat S. Zero-crossings of a wavelet transform[J]. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 1991, 37(4):1019-1033.

[30] Wei Zhi, Jin Huijun, Luo Chongxu, et al. Characteristics of atmospheric environmental changes of permafrost in northeastern China in 50 years[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Science Edition), 2008, 44(3):39-42.[魏智, 金会军, 罗崇旭, 等. 东北地区冻土50年来的气温环境变化[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2008, 44(3):39-42.]

[31] Li Chun, Fang Zhifang. Linkage of Arctic Oscillation and winter temperature in northeast China[J]. Planteau Meteorology, 2005, 24(6):927-934.[李春, 方之芳. 北极涛动与东北冬季温度的联系[J]. 高原气象, 2005, 24(6):927-934.]

[32] Guo Zhimei, Miao Qilong, Li Xiong. Variation characteristics of temperature overnorthern China in recent 50 years[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinca, 2005, 25(4):66-72.[郭志梅, 缪启龙, 李雄. 中国北方地区近50年来气温变化特征的研究[J]. 地理科学, 2005, 25(4):66-72.]

[33] Qiu Guoqing, Cheng Guodong. Permafrost in China:Past and present[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 1995(1):13-22.[邱国庆, 程国栋. 中国的多年冻土——过去与现在[J]. 第四纪研究, 1995(1):13-22.]

[34] Mao Dehua, Wang Zongming, Luo Ling, et al. Growing season normal difference vegetation index, NDVI, response to climate changes and increased carbon dioxide concentration in frozen areas of northeast China during 1982-2008[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2010, 30(11):2332-2343.[毛德华, 王宗明, 罗玲, 等. 1982-2008年东北冻土区植被生长季NDVI对气候变化和CO₂体积分数增加的响应[J]. 环境科学学报, 2010, 30(11):2332-2343.]