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冰川冻土 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 1538-1543.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0179

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1961-2015年山东省济宁市地温与气温变化的相关分析

蔡鹏1, 李芳1, 王政权2, 赵娴1   

  1. 1. 山东省济宁市气象局, 山东 济宁 272137;
    2. 江苏省姜堰区气象局, 江苏 姜堰 225500
  • 收稿日期:2016-08-10 修回日期:2016-11-19 出版日期:2016-12-25 发布日期:2017-04-06
  • 作者简介:蔡鹏(1977-),女,山东微山人,工程师,2016年在南京信息工程大学获硕士学位,现主要从事气候变化及气象服务方面的研究.E-mail:caipeng92006@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    山东省气象局2015年青年科研基金项目(2015SDQN08)资助

Correlation analysis between air and ground temperatures in Jining Prefecture of Shandong Province from 1961 through 2015

CAI Peng1, LI Fang1, WANG Zhengquan2, ZHAO Xian1   

  1. 1. Jining Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province, Jinging 272137, Shandong, China;
    2. Jiangyan Meteorological Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Jiangyan 225500, Jiangsu, China
  • Received:2016-08-10 Revised:2016-11-19 Online:2016-12-25 Published:2017-04-06

摘要:

土壤温度直接影响着作物的生长,在气候变暖的大背景下,研究地面浅层下温度的变化,对指导农业生产意义重大。利用1961-2015年济宁国家级气象站气温和0~20cm地温资料,采用气候倾向率、累积距平、信躁比、蒙特卡罗检验等统计方法,对气温和地温的年、季变化和气候突变及异常特征进行相关分析。结果表明:年、季平均气温和地温均呈极显著增温趋势,增幅为0.18~0.58℃·(10a)-1,地温增幅小于气温,地温春季增幅最大,气温冬季增幅最大。年平均地温与气温呈极显著正相关,相关系数均在0.87以上,其中20cm地温与气温的相关系数最大为0.93,5cm最小为0.87,春季最大,冬季最小。气温极值的变化与地表温度极值的变化相关性极为显著,平均最低值的相关系数最高。年平均气温和15cm、20cm平均地温在1986年、0cm平均地温在1993年发生了突变,突变前为冷期,突变后为暖期,自20世纪80年代末以来,气温与20cm地温的变化规律最为接近。四季中,气温与0cm地温的异常年份具有较好的一致性;春、夏、秋三季地温和气温分别在2014年、2013年、1998年异常偏高,冬季地温异常年份受气温异常的影响最小。

关键词: 地温, 气温, 气候倾向率, 气候突变, 异常年份, 相关分析

Abstract:

Ground temperature directly affects the growth of crops. Under the background of climate warming, the research on the change of temperature in the shallow ground has an important significance for guiding agricultural production. Based on the air temperature and 0~20-cm ground temperature datasets in Jining National Weather Station during 1961-2015, using climate inclination rate, accumulative anomaly, signal to noise, Monte Carlo test and other statistical methods, their annual and seasonal changes and abrupt changes are analyzed. The results show that both the annual and seasonal averages of air temperature and ground temperature display significant warming trend, with a rate of 0.18~0.58℃·(10a)-1. The amplitude of ground temperature warming is less than that of air temperature. The maximum increase in ground temperature appears in spring, and that in air temperature appears in winter. Between annual average ground temperature and air temperature there is significant positive correlation, with a correlation coefficient of 0.87 or more. The maximum correlation coefficient (in spring) is between 20-cm ground temperature and air temperature (0.93); the minimum (in winter) one is between 5-cm ground temperature and air temperature (0.87); Changes in extreme values of air temperature and surface temperature are highly significantly correlated, with the maximum correlation coefficient between their average minimum values. The annual average temperature and 15-cm, 20-cm average ground temperatures changed abruptly in 1986, 0-cm average ground temperature changed abruptly in 1993, with a cold period before shift and a warm period after shift. Since the late 1980s, the variations of air temperature and 20-cm ground temperature have been closest. There were good consistencies in the anomalous year of air temperature and 0-cm ground temperature among the four seasons; the air and ground temperatures in spring, summer and autumn were anomalously high in 2014, 2013 and 1998. The impact of the air temperature anomaly on anomalous ground temperature is smallest in winter.

Key words: ground temperature, air temperature, climate inclination rate, climate abrupt change, anomalous year, correlation analysis

中图分类号: 

  • P468.0+21