1961-2015年山东省济宁市地温与气温变化的相关分析

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0179

冰川冻土 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 1538-1543.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0179

1961-2015年山东省济宁市地温与气温变化的相关分析

蔡鹏¹, 李芳¹, 王政权², 赵娴¹

1. 山东省济宁市气象局, 山东济宁 272137;
2. 江苏省姜堰区气象局, 江苏姜堰 225500

收稿日期:2016-08-10 修回日期:2016-11-19 出版日期:2016-12-25 发布日期:2017-04-06
作者简介:蔡鹏(1977-),女,山东微山人,工程师,2016年在南京信息工程大学获硕士学位,现主要从事气候变化及气象服务方面的研究.E-mail:caipeng92006@126.com
基金资助:
山东省气象局2015年青年科研基金项目（2015SDQN08）资助

Correlation analysis between air and ground temperatures in Jining Prefecture of Shandong Province from 1961 through 2015

CAI Peng¹, LI Fang¹, WANG Zhengquan², ZHAO Xian¹

1. Jining Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province, Jinging 272137, Shandong, China;
2. Jiangyan Meteorological Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Jiangyan 225500, Jiangsu, China

Received:2016-08-10 Revised:2016-11-19 Online:2016-12-25 Published:2017-04-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土壤温度直接影响着作物的生长，在气候变暖的大背景下，研究地面浅层下温度的变化，对指导农业生产意义重大。利用1961-2015年济宁国家级气象站气温和0～20cm地温资料，采用气候倾向率、累积距平、信躁比、蒙特卡罗检验等统计方法，对气温和地温的年、季变化和气候突变及异常特征进行相关分析。结果表明：年、季平均气温和地温均呈极显著增温趋势，增幅为0.18～0.58℃·（10a）^-1，地温增幅小于气温，地温春季增幅最大，气温冬季增幅最大。年平均地温与气温呈极显著正相关，相关系数均在0.87以上，其中20cm地温与气温的相关系数最大为0.93，5cm最小为0.87，春季最大，冬季最小。气温极值的变化与地表温度极值的变化相关性极为显著，平均最低值的相关系数最高。年平均气温和15cm、20cm平均地温在1986年、0cm平均地温在1993年发生了突变，突变前为冷期，突变后为暖期，自20世纪80年代末以来，气温与20cm地温的变化规律最为接近。四季中，气温与0cm地温的异常年份具有较好的一致性；春、夏、秋三季地温和气温分别在2014年、2013年、1998年异常偏高，冬季地温异常年份受气温异常的影响最小。

关键词: 地温, 气温, 气候倾向率, 气候突变, 异常年份, 相关分析

Abstract:

Ground temperature directly affects the growth of crops. Under the background of climate warming, the research on the change of temperature in the shallow ground has an important significance for guiding agricultural production. Based on the air temperature and 0~20-cm ground temperature datasets in Jining National Weather Station during 1961-2015, using climate inclination rate, accumulative anomaly, signal to noise, Monte Carlo test and other statistical methods, their annual and seasonal changes and abrupt changes are analyzed. The results show that both the annual and seasonal averages of air temperature and ground temperature display significant warming trend, with a rate of 0.18~0.58℃·(10a)^-1. The amplitude of ground temperature warming is less than that of air temperature. The maximum increase in ground temperature appears in spring, and that in air temperature appears in winter. Between annual average ground temperature and air temperature there is significant positive correlation, with a correlation coefficient of 0.87 or more. The maximum correlation coefficient (in spring) is between 20-cm ground temperature and air temperature (0.93); the minimum (in winter) one is between 5-cm ground temperature and air temperature (0.87); Changes in extreme values of air temperature and surface temperature are highly significantly correlated, with the maximum correlation coefficient between their average minimum values. The annual average temperature and 15-cm, 20-cm average ground temperatures changed abruptly in 1986, 0-cm average ground temperature changed abruptly in 1993, with a cold period before shift and a warm period after shift. Since the late 1980s, the variations of air temperature and 20-cm ground temperature have been closest. There were good consistencies in the anomalous year of air temperature and 0-cm ground temperature among the four seasons; the air and ground temperatures in spring, summer and autumn were anomalously high in 2014, 2013 and 1998. The impact of the air temperature anomaly on anomalous ground temperature is smallest in winter.

Key words: ground temperature, air temperature, climate inclination rate, climate abrupt change, anomalous year, correlation analysis

中图分类号:

P468.0+21

蔡鹏, 李芳, 王政权, 赵娴. 1961-2015年山东省济宁市地温与气温变化的相关分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(6): 1538-1543.

CAI Peng, LI Fang, WANG Zhengquan, ZHAO Xian. Correlation analysis between air and ground temperatures in Jining Prefecture of Shandong Province from 1961 through 2015[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2016, 38(6): 1538-1543.

参考文献

[1] Li Chongyin. An introduction to the climate dynamics[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 1995:290-296.[李崇银. 气候动力学引论[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 1995:290-296.]

[2] Huangpu Xueguan. The research progress of the surface physical process parameters[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 1997(2):1-11.[黄甫雪官. 地表物理过程参数化方案的研究进展[J]. 气象科技, 1997(2):1-11.]

[3] China Meteorological Administration. Specifications surface meteorological observation[S]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2003:85-89.[中国气象局. 地面气象观测规范[S]. 北京:气象出版社, 2003:85-89.]

[4] Zhou Shaoyi, Lao Wei, Su Zhi, et al. Variation features of fleet soil temperature in Guangxi from 1961 to 2010[J]. Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2012, 25(4):1372-1375.[周绍毅, 劳炜, 苏志, 等. 1961-2010年广西浅层地温变化特征[J]. 西南农业学报, 2012, 25(4):1372-1375.]

[5] Cao Xing, Chen Rongyi, Yang Jufang, et al. Characteristics of soil temperature and its relationship with air temperature in autumn in the hinterland of the Guerbantonggute Desert[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2011, 29(4):433-438.[曹兴, 陈荣毅, 杨举芳, 等. 沙漠腹地秋季地温变化特征及其与气温的关系[J]. 干旱气象, 2011, 29(4):433-438.]

[6] Wang Haibo, Huang Shaopeng, Ren Yongfei, et al. Preliminary analysis of the subsurface temperature and air temperature changes in Xi'an, China[J]. Scientia Geologica Sinica, 2014, 49(3):874-887.[王海波, 黄少鹏, 任永飞, 等. 西安城市地温与气温变化初步分析[J]. 地质科学, 2014, 49(3):874-887.]

[7] Yu Shengnan, Yin Changjiao, Yan Shiyan, et al. Relationship between ground temperature and air temperature on Jiamusi City[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2013, 41(1):218-219, 291.[于盛楠, 尹嫦姣, 闫世岩, 等. 佳木斯市地温与气温的关系[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2013, 41(1):218-219, 291.]

[8] Kang Wenying, Xu Jianfen. Analysis of air and ground temperature variations of Hengshui City in recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Hengshui University, 2013, 15(4):104-107.[康文英, 徐建芬. 衡水市近50年气温与地温变化分析[J]. 衡水学院学报, 2013, 15(4):104-107.]

[9] Du Jun, Hu Jun, Luobu Ciren, et al. Response of shallow geotemperature to climatic change over Tibet from 1971 to 2005[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2008, 30(5):745-751.[杜军, 胡军, 罗布次仁, 等. 西藏浅层地温对气候变暖的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2008, 30(5):745-751.]

[10] Cai Peng, Wang Wen, Zhang Cuicui, et al. Variation characteristics of climate warming and the impact on agricultural production in Jining of Shandong Province in recent 44 years[J]. Guizhou Agricultural Sciences, 2015, 43(6):207-209.[蔡鹏, 王文, 张翠翠, 等. 近44年山东济宁气候变暖特征及其对农业生产的影响[J]. 贵州农业科学, 2015, 43(6):207-209.]

[11] Zhu Zhi, Shi Chunxiang, Zhang Tao, et al. Applicability analysis of various reanalyzed land surface temperature datasets in China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2015, 37(3):614-624.[朱智, 师春香, 张涛, 等. 多种再分析地表温度资料在中国区域的适用性分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(3):614-624.]

[12] Wei Fengying. Statistical diagnosis and prediction technology of modern climate[M]. 2nd ed. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2007:37-41.[魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 2版. 北京:气象出版社, 2007:37-41.]

[13] Zhou Xiaoyu, Zhao Chunyu, Wang Ying, et al. Variation characteristics of extreme temperature events in Liaoning Province, 1961-2012[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2015, 37(4):876-887.[周晓宇, 赵春雨, 王颖, 等. 1961-2012年辽宁省极端气温事件气候变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2015, 37(4):876-887.]

[14] Chen Chengguo, Shi Huilan, Wang Guilan, et al. Ground temperature characteristics from 1961 to 2010 in Dezhou, Shandong Province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2012, 28(1):86-89.[陈成国, 石慧兰, 王桂兰, 等. 1961-2010年德州市地温变化特征[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2012, 28(1):86-89.]

[1]	尤明东, 李海波, 葛敏, 臧淑英. 黑龙江省冻土活动层厚度年际变化影响因素分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(3): 480-491.
[2]	李开明, 钟晓菲, 姜烨, 李佳宁, 李林凤, 周平. 1961-2016年乌鲁木齐河流域气温和降水垂直梯度变化研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(3): 607-615.
[3]	王婷婷, 冯起, 李宗省, 李建国. 1960-2012年祁连山东段古浪河流域极端气候事件研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(3): 598-606.
[4]	高玉中, 王承伟, 王冀, 胡文东. 黑龙江省气温演变及未来趋势分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(2): 270-278.
[5]	张泽, 吴青柏, Mikhail ZHELEZNIAK, 金会军. 多年冻土区第一井——舍尔金井[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(5): 1084-1088.
[6]	李虹雨, 马龙, 刘廷玺, 杜艳霞, 刘明. 1951-2014年内蒙古地区气温、降水变化及其关系[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(5): 1098-1112.
[7]	龚强, 汪宏宇, 朱玲, 徐红, 顾正强, 晁华, 蔺娜, 沈历都. 辽宁省地温场结构及变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(3): 505-514.
[8]	张雪婷, 李雪梅, 高培, 李倩, 唐宏. 基于不同方法的中国天山山区降水形态分离研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(2): 235-244.
[9]	李若麟, 保鸿燕, 李课臣, 王澄海. 全球土壤湿度的记忆性及其气候效应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(6): 1470-1481.
[10]	谷良雷, 姚济敏, 胡泽勇, 赵林. 藏北高原典型季节冻土区和多年冻土区小气候特征对比研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(6): 1482-1490.
[11]	刘广岳, 赵林, 谢昌卫, 庞强强, 杜二计, 乔永平. 青藏高原多年冻土区地温年变化深度的变化规律及影响因素[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(5): 1189-1200.
[12]	张坤, 张青龙, 毛云程, 李丽, 王若旭. 黄土路堑边坡土体水热变化特征现场监测研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(4): 1121-1128.
[13]	陈惠雄, 王晓鹏. 黑河流域居民水幸福感实证研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(3): 845-852.
[14]	蓝永超, 朱云通, 刘根生, 喇承芳, 沈永平, 石明星. 黄河源区气候变化的季节特征与区域差异研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(3): 741-749.
[15]	蔺筠, 胡泽勇, 孙根厚, 谢志鹏, 黄芳芳. 城镇化发展背景下那曲地区气温变化的特征分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(3): 634-644.

1961-2015年山东省济宁市地温与气温变化的相关分析

Correlation analysis between air and ground temperatures in Jining Prefecture of Shandong Province from 1961 through 2015

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0