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冰川冻土 ›› 2016, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 1732-1738.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2016.0201

• 寒旱区生物学 • 上一篇    下一篇

气象干旱对青海牧草产量的影响及其在产量预报中的应用

颜亮东1,2, 郭建平3, 祁栋林1,2, 李林1,2, 苏淑兰1,2   

  1. 1. 青海省气象科学研究所, 青海 西宁 810001;
    2. 青海省防灾减灾重点实验室, 青海 西宁 810001;
    3. 中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2016-06-09 修回日期:2016-10-01 出版日期:2016-12-25 发布日期:2017-04-06
  • 作者简介:颜亮东(1967-),男,青海互助人,高级工程师,2004年毕业于甘肃农业大学,从事草地资源监测、气候资源利用、农牧业气象与生态环境方向的研究.E-mail:314844226@qq.com
  • 基金资助:

    公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506001)资助

Meteorological drought in Qinghai Province: impact on pasture output and application in pasture yield estimation

YAN Liangdong1,2, GUO Jianping3, QI Donglin1,2, LI Lin1,2, SU Shulan1,2   

  1. 1. Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Xining 810001, China;
    2. Key Laboratory for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, China;
    3. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2016-06-09 Revised:2016-10-01 Online:2016-12-25 Published:2017-04-06

摘要:

研究了降水偏少造成的气象干旱对青海省牧草产量的影响,得出牧草生长季降水与产量的关系模式,计算出气象干旱造成的牧草产量损失量。但该方法模拟误差较大,且不能满足牧草产量预报、草场载畜量确定和牲畜出栏率确定等牧业生产服务需求。因此,根据拉格朗日插值方法给出了青海省无干旱时“未受旱产量”的确定方法,并据此求算出历年干旱对青海省牧草产量的损失量值,然后依据天然牧草不同生育期发生干旱的强度、范围以及牧草对干旱的敏感度等关系,建立了干旱损失量的统计和评估模式。在2013-2015年青海省曲麻莱县牧草产量评估中进行了应用,3年的误差在3.59%~6.02%之间,证明了该方法可以评估出研究区干旱对牧草产量的损失量,从而评估出实际牧草产量。拉格朗日插值方法效果较好,可以在青海省今后的牧草产量预报、草场载畜量预报、牲畜出栏率确定等畜牧业生产评估中推广应用。

关键词: 青海省, 牧草产量, 未受旱产量, 干旱损失, 评估

Abstract:

In this paper, meteorological drought due to fewer precipitation impacting pasture yield in Qinghai Province was studied. A relationship between precipitation in pasture growing season and pasture yield was given. The pasture yield loss affected by the meteorological drought was able to calculate, but the error was large, which was unable to satisfy the requirements of estimating pasture yield, pasture grazing capacity and livestock marking rate. Consequently, the "no-drought pasture yield" method based on the Lagrange interpolation method was introduced for the scenario that there was no drought in the province. Then the pasture yield loss could be calculated in the province. According to the "no-drought pasture yield" method, statistics and evaluation model of drought loss could be set up; and then to be applied in pasture yield assessment of Qumarlêb County, Qinghai Province from 2013 through 2015, of which the error was between 3.59% and 6.02 % for the three years. It was proved that using the drought damage assessment method could evaluate the drought loss of pasture yield and assess the actual pasture yield in the study area. This method can be popularized and applied to pasture forecast, pasture grazing capacity prediction and assessment of livestock production in the future.

Key words: Qinghai Province, pasture yield, no-drought pasture yield, drought loss, assessment

中图分类号: 

  • S812