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冰川冻土 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (1): 9-15.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0002

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

天山冰川储量变化和面积变化关系分析研究

王璞玉1, 李忠勤1,2, 李慧林1, 李开明3, 徐春海1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室/天山冰川站, 甘肃 兰州 730000;
    2. 西北师范大学 地理与环境科学学院, 甘肃 兰州 730070;
    3. 兰州城市学院 建筑与城市规划学院, 甘肃 兰州 730070
  • 收稿日期:2016-08-08 修回日期:2016-12-09 出版日期:2017-02-25 发布日期:2017-06-03
  • 作者简介:王璞玉(1983-),女,甘肃成县人,副研究员,2012年在中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所获博士学位,从事冰川变化过程及其机理研究.E-mail:wangpuyu@lzb.ac.cn.
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41301069;41641003)资助

Analysis of the relation between glacier volume change and area change in the Tianshan Mountains

WANG Puyu1, LI Zhongqin1,2, LI Huilin1, LI Kaiming3, XU Chunhai1   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences/Tianshan Glaciological Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    2. College of Geography and Environment Sciences, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
    3. School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Lanzhou City University, Lanzhou 730070, China
  • Received:2016-08-08 Revised:2016-12-09 Online:2017-02-25 Published:2017-06-03

摘要: 冰川储量的变化对海平面和区域水资源、生态环境以及社会经济等有重要影响,但是对大量冰川的储量变化很难通过实地观测获得。基于天山9条监测冰川储量变化的估算结果,通过统计分析,探讨冰川储量变化和面积变化的相互关系,以期通过测定冰川面积变化来估算冰川储量变化。结果表明:冰川储量变化与面积变化具有线性关系,其决定系数为0.67~0.70。加入其他山区冰川样本以后,决定系数并没有提高。其原因在于,一方面对冰川变化监测和冰川储量估算存在误差;另一方面,不同的冰川区由于冰川的类型、规模及区域气候特征的差异,冰川变化对气候变化响应的敏感程度不同。因此,未来不仅需要更多更准确的冰川储量估算,还需要按冰川形态类型和区域分别研究。

关键词: 天山冰川, 冰川储量, 冰川储量变化和面积变化关系, 冰川变化机理

Abstract: Glacier volume change has significant influence on sea level, regional water resources, eco-environment and social economy. However, it is very difficult to carry out in-situ measurement. The main aim of this study is to make quantitative investigation on the scaling relation between glacier volume change and area change based on the ice volume estimation of nine glaciers in the Tianshan Mountains. Then, the scaling relation between glacier volume change and area change, which is suited for current climate condition and response process of glaciers, is established by using statistical method in order to estimate glacier volume change from glacier area change. It is found that there is a linear relation between glacier reserve change and glacier area change, with a determination coefficient between 0.67 and 0.70. The determination coefficient does not improve much as adding samples of glaciers in the other mountain areas. The reason may be that, on the one hand, there are errors in the glacier change monitoring and volume estimating, on the other hand, the sensitivity of glacier change to climate change, which depended on the glacier type, size and their regional differentia, is not the same. Therefore, in further study, it is necessary to focus on not only glacier volume estimation, but also on the glacier type and its regional differentia.

Key words: glaciers in the Tianshan Mountains, glacier volume, scaling relation between glacier volume change and area change, mechanism of glacier change

中图分类号: 

  • P343.6