新疆冰雹灾害经济损失评估及风险区划研究

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0034

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于1984-2014年新疆雹灾受灾面积、总成灾面积、农作物播种面积、新疆生产总值及以县为单位的雹灾频次等统计数据，构建雹灾经济损失指标和风险度指标，进行新疆冰雹灾害评估研究。其中雹灾经济损失指标可用于评价新疆雹灾经济损失的趋势变化，风险度指标可借助GIS空间信息处理技术形成新疆雹灾风险区划。研究表明：雹灾经济损失总体呈波动上升趋势，且受环境不稳定度的影响较大，二者保持着较好的正相关性。新疆冰雹灾害总体以中、低度风险为主，高风险次之。高风险区主要集中在喇叭形河谷地带的伊犁地区及其两侧的阿克苏、博州等地，建议通过调整农业产业结构、提升人工防雹能力等方式降低上述区域的雹灾损失。

关键词: 经济损失评价, 风险区划, 冰雹灾害, 新疆, GIS

Abstract: Based on the statistical datasets of Hail disaster area, total disaster area, crop planting area, GDP and the hail frequency of Hail for each city in Xinjiang, the hail disaster economic loss index and risk index were constructed, while the hail disaster in Xinjiang were also accessed. The former index could be used in reviewing the changing tendency of hail disaster economic loss, while the latter could indicate the hail disaster risk zone with the virtue of GIS special information processing technology. It is showed that, the hail disaster economic loss generally ascends with great impact from environmental instability, while keeping fine positive correlation with each other. The overall risk of hail disaster in Xinjiang is mainly medium and low risk, followed by high risk. High risk areas are mainly concentrated in the horned valley area Yili and those region that around the vally, that is Akesus and Bozhou. It is suggested to reduce hail damage in these areas by adjusting the structure of agricultural industry and improving the capacity of artificial hail suppression.

Key words: economic loss assessment, risk zoning, hail disaster, Xinjiang, GIS

中图分类号:

S427

史莲梅, 李斌, 李圆圆, 孔令文, 刘卫平. 新疆冰雹灾害经济损失评估及风险区划研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(2): 299-307.

SHI Lianmei, LI Bin, LI Yuanyuan, KONG Lingwen, LIU Weiping. Study on economic loss assessment and risk division of hail disaster in Xinjiang[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2017, 39(2): 299-307.

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