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冰川冻土 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (2): 299-307.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0034

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆冰雹灾害经济损失评估及风险区划研究

史莲梅1, 李斌1, 李圆圆1, 孔令文2, 刘卫平3   

  1. 1. 新疆维吾尔自治区人工影响天气办公室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002;
    2. 乌鲁木齐市达坂城区气象局, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830039;
    3. 新疆维吾尔自治区气象信息中心, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
  • 收稿日期:2016-11-28 修回日期:2017-02-03 出版日期:2017-04-25 发布日期:2017-07-08
  • 作者简介:史莲梅(1983-),女,新疆沙湾人,工程师,2008年毕业于南京信息工程大学,从事人工影响天气业务技术及灾害性天气研究.E-mail:slmbaxia@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    新疆气象局青年基金“基于灾损评估的新疆冰雹灾害损失风险区划”(Q201602)资助

Study on economic loss assessment and risk division of hail disaster in Xinjiang

SHI Lianmei1, LI Bin1, LI Yuanyuan1, KONG Lingwen2, LIU Weiping3   

  1. 1. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Modification Office, Ürümqi 830002, China;
    2. Bureau of Meteorology Ürümqi Dabancheng District, Ürümqi 830002, China;
    3. Xinjiang Meteorological Information Center, Ürümqi 830002, China
  • Received:2016-11-28 Revised:2017-02-03 Online:2017-04-25 Published:2017-07-08

摘要: 基于1984-2014年新疆雹灾受灾面积、总成灾面积、农作物播种面积、新疆生产总值及以县为单位的雹灾频次等统计数据,构建雹灾经济损失指标和风险度指标,进行新疆冰雹灾害评估研究。其中雹灾经济损失指标可用于评价新疆雹灾经济损失的趋势变化,风险度指标可借助GIS空间信息处理技术形成新疆雹灾风险区划。研究表明:雹灾经济损失总体呈波动上升趋势,且受环境不稳定度的影响较大,二者保持着较好的正相关性。新疆冰雹灾害总体以中、低度风险为主,高风险次之。高风险区主要集中在喇叭形河谷地带的伊犁地区及其两侧的阿克苏、博州等地,建议通过调整农业产业结构、提升人工防雹能力等方式降低上述区域的雹灾损失。

关键词: 经济损失评价, 风险区划, 冰雹灾害, 新疆, GIS

Abstract: Based on the statistical datasets of Hail disaster area, total disaster area, crop planting area, GDP and the hail frequency of Hail for each city in Xinjiang, the hail disaster economic loss index and risk index were constructed, while the hail disaster in Xinjiang were also accessed. The former index could be used in reviewing the changing tendency of hail disaster economic loss, while the latter could indicate the hail disaster risk zone with the virtue of GIS special information processing technology. It is showed that, the hail disaster economic loss generally ascends with great impact from environmental instability, while keeping fine positive correlation with each other. The overall risk of hail disaster in Xinjiang is mainly medium and low risk, followed by high risk. High risk areas are mainly concentrated in the horned valley area Yili and those region that around the vally, that is Akesus and Bozhou. It is suggested to reduce hail damage in these areas by adjusting the structure of agricultural industry and improving the capacity of artificial hail suppression.

Key words: economic loss assessment, risk zoning, hail disaster, Xinjiang, GIS

中图分类号: 

  • S427