甘肃河西石羊河流域出山径流分析及来水预测

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0074

冰川冻土 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 651-659.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0074

甘肃河西石羊河流域出山径流分析及来水预测

李育鸿¹, 李计生², 孙超², 黄晨璐³

1. 甘肃省水利厅, 甘肃兰州 730000;
2. 甘肃省水文水资源局, 甘肃兰州 730000;
3. 西北大学, 陕西西安 710000

收稿日期:2016-12-25 修回日期:2017-06-13 出版日期:2017-06-25 发布日期:2017-09-09
作者简介:李育鸿(1965-),男,甘肃临泽人,高级工程师,2014年在澳大利亚昆士兰大学获硕士学位,从事水利工程和自然资源管理工作.E-mail:1902747238@qq.com.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重大项目（41690144）资助

Mountainous runoff analysis and inflow forecast of the Shiyang River basin

LI Yuhong¹, LI Jisheng², SUN Chao², HUANG Chenlu³

1. Department of Water Resources of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, China;
2. Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, China;
3. Northwest University, Xi'an 710000, China

Received:2016-12-25 Revised:2017-06-13 Online:2017-06-25 Published:2017-09-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 径流量是水资源规划、利用、管理、调度的重要依据。根据石羊河流域的实测径流资料统计分析得到：流域地表水资源量为15.52×10⁸ m³；流域各代表站出山径流的C_V值在0.15~0.35之间，年极值比在1.77~14.20之间，呈现出从西向东逐渐增大的空间分布特性。运用加法模型对石羊河流域径流量进行预测，结果表明未来4年内为丰水年。

关键词: 径流特征, 变化趋势, 石羊河流域, 加法模型, 径流预测

Abstract: Runoff is an important basis for water resources planning, utilization, management and scheduling. According to the actual hydrological runoff data in the Shiyang River basin by investigation and measurement, surface water resources in the basin are calculated as 1.552 billion m³. The mountainous runoff characteristic values of every representative stations and typical annual runoff in the basin are statistical analyzed. It is found that the river runoff C_V value is ranging from 0.15 to 0.35 and annual extreme value ratio is between 1.77-14.20, with a spatial distribution characteristic of gradual increasing from west to east obviously. The additive model is applied to predict inflow of the Shiyang River basin, resulting that the basin will be in high flow over the next four years.

Key words: runoff characteristics, variation trend, Shiyang River basin, additive model, runoff forecast

中图分类号:

P333

李育鸿, 李计生, 孙超, 黄晨璐. 甘肃河西石羊河流域出山径流分析及来水预测[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(3): 651-659.

LI Yuhong, LI Jisheng, SUN Chao, HUANG Chenlu. Mountainous runoff analysis and inflow forecast of the Shiyang River basin[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2017, 39(3): 651-659.

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甘肃河西石羊河流域出山径流分析及来水预测

Mountainous runoff analysis and inflow forecast of the Shiyang River basin

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