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冰川冻土 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 688-695.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0078

• 生态经济与可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆喀什地区城镇化过程中用水量预测

艾萨迪拉·玉苏甫1,2, 安瓦尔·买买提明2,3   

  1. 1. 新疆大学 资源与环境科学学院/绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046;
    2. 新疆师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院/丝绸之路经济带城市发展研究中心, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054;
    3. 新疆教育学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830043
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-25 修回日期:2017-01-09 出版日期:2017-06-25 发布日期:2017-09-09
  • 通讯作者: 安瓦尔·买买提明,E-mail:anwaer@xjnu.edu.cn E-mail:anwaer@xjnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:艾萨迪拉·玉苏甫(1990-),男,维吾尔族,新疆乌鲁木齐人,2016年在新疆师范大学获硕士学位,现为新疆大学在读博士研究生,从事城市地理与规划研究.E-mail:asadilla@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41261036)资助

Prediction of water consumption in the urbanization course in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang

Asadilla Yusup1,2, Anwaer Maimaitiming2,3   

  1. 1. College of Resource and Environment Science/Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Ürümqi 830046, China;
    2. College of Geographical Science and Tourism/Research Center for Urban Development in Silk Road Economic Belt, Xinjiang Normal University, Ürümqi 830054, China;
    3. Xinjiang Education Institute, Ürümqi 830043, China
  • Received:2016-03-25 Revised:2017-01-09 Online:2017-06-25 Published:2017-09-09

摘要: 根据新疆喀什地区城镇化过程中用水量的变化特征,应用系统动力学理论,以仿真模拟技术为手段,以2002-2010年的统计数据为依据,通过模拟,设计出喀什地区城镇化过程中的用水量系统模型,设定了低、中、高三种城镇化发展速度模式,预测未来30年喀什地区用水量及其产业结构的水资源开发利用率。结果表明:喀什地区不宜采取低速和高速的城镇化模式,而适合采取中速城镇化发展模式。通过分析认为,走中速城镇化发展道路,能够保证城镇化发展过程中水资源的可持续利用。

关键词: 城镇化, 用水量预测, 水资源, 系统动力学, 喀什地区

Abstract: In this paper, according to the variation of water resources in the urbanization course in Kashgar Prefecture, water consumption and water use efficiency of various industrial structures in the next 30 years are predicted by using system dynamics theory and simulation technology, as well as the statistical data from 2002 through 2010. For better applying the prediction result about water resources under urbanization to simulation, three urbanization patterns (low, medium and high speed) were considered in the prediction. It was found that the Kashgar Prefecture was suitable to apply the medium speed pattern of urbanization. Through analysis, it was clear that adjust the relationship of urbanization speed with quality, than it will be able to guarantee sustainable utilization of water resources in the urbanization course.

Key words: urbanization, water consumption forecast, water resources, system dynamics, Kashgar Prefecture

中图分类号: 

  • TV213.4