关键词: 气候变化, 气候指数, 降水, 天山

Abstract: The precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains and its response to global climate change is a hotspot in recent years. In this paper, precipitation dataset of 40 meteorological stations from 1951 through 2014 in the Tianshan Mountains and general climate indexes were used to analyze the precipitation changing trend in the Tianshan Mountains over the past 60 years, and to investigate the impact of general climate indexes on precipitation, through linear tendency estimation and correlation analysis. Result of the study shows that, firstly, precipitation is more in the north/west and alpine regions but less in the south/east and plain regions. There was an increasing tendency of precipitation, about 6 mm·(10a)^-1. Secondly, SASMI is the main factor that controls annual precipitation, and there is a significant positive correlation between them. However, PDO, PNA and AO have a positive correlation with annual precipitation insignificantly in range and intensity. Thirdly, during dry seasons, precipitation is affected by various general climate indexes which have distinct spatial differential. SASMI has a little positive correlation with precipitation in the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains and parts of the alpine regions, but it has a minor negative correlation with precipitation in the southern slopes of the western Tianshan Mountains. What's more, there is more similarity between ENSO and the precipitation variation in the southern and northern slopes and low-medium mountainous belts of the middle-western Tianshan Mountains. Finally, during wet seasons, there is more similarity between SASMI and precipitation variation in the southern and northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, as well as in the alpine regions; also there is more similarity between PDO and precipitation variation in low mountainous belts in the southern and northern slopes of the middle-western Tianshan Mountains.

Key words: climate change, climate index, precipitation, Tianshan Mountains