1961-2015年吉林省极端降水指数时空变化特征

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0111

冰川冻土 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (5): 1004-1011.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0111

1961-2015年吉林省极端降水指数时空变化特征

任景全¹, 郭春明¹, 刘玉汐², 王丽伟³, 李琪⁴

1. 吉林省气象科学研究所, 吉林长春 130062;
2. 吉林省气象台, 吉林长春 130062;
3. 吉林省气象信息网络中心, 吉林长春 130062;
4. 江苏省农业气象重点实验室, 江苏南京 210044

收稿日期:2017-02-20 修回日期:2017-09-25 出版日期:2017-10-25 发布日期:2018-01-27
通讯作者: 郭春明,E-mail:gch8188@sina.com E-mail:gch8188@sina.com
作者简介:任景全(1988-),男,内蒙古赤峰人,工程师,2013年在南京信息工程大学获硕士学位,从事农业气象业务及科研工作.E-mail:renjingquan1988@126.com
基金资助:
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201206018；GYHY201506001）；吉林省重点科技攻关项目（20150204014NY）资助

Spatiotemporal change characteristics of extreme precipitation indices in Jilin Province from 1961 through 2015

REN Jingquan¹, GUO Chunming¹, LIU Yuxi², WANG Liwei³, LI Qi⁴

1. Institute of Meteorological Science of Jilin Province, Changchun 130062, China;
2. Jilin Meteorological Observatory of Jilin Province, Changchun 130062, China;
3. Jilin Meteorological Information Network Center, Changchun 130062, China;
4. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing 210044, China

Received:2017-02-20 Revised:2017-09-25 Online:2017-10-25 Published:2018-01-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1961-2015年吉林省50个气象站的逐日降水量资料，通过RClimDex v1.1软件计算11个极端降水指数，采用线性倾向估计和Morlet小波分析等方法，分析了吉林省极端降水指数的时空变化规律。结果表明：1961-2015年吉林省最长连续无雨日数（CDD）自西向东逐渐降低，其他极端降水指数均呈自西向东逐渐增加的趋势分布。吉林省CDD呈极显著的下降趋势，下降速率为-1.99 d·（10a）^-1，其他极端降水指数波动变化，线性趋势不显著。吉林省各极端降水指数均在20世纪70年代达到最小值。绝大多数极端降水指数存在3 a和12 a左右的周期变化，3 a左右的主周期通过了0.05的显著性水平检验。吉林省极端降水指数除CDD随经度、海拔的增加而显著降低，随纬度的增加而显著增加外，其他大部分极端降水指数随经度、海拔的增加而增加，随纬度的增加而降低。

关键词: 极端降水, 气候变化, Morlet小波分析, 吉林省

Abstract: In this paper, the features of eleven indices of extreme precipitation over Jilin Province were examined broadly through the RClimDex v1.1 software based on daily precipitation data from 50 meteorological stations from 1961 through 2015. The methods of inverse distance weighted (IDW), linear trend estimate and Morlet wavelet analysis were employed to delineate the spatiotemporal change, statistical significance and periodicity of extreme precipitation indices. The results showed that consecutive dry days (CDD) decreased from west to east, and other extreme precipitation indices increased from west to east. The CDD showed a significant decline trend by -1.99 d·(10a)^-1. However, the linear trends of other extreme precipitation indices were not obvious. Each extreme precipitation indices in the province reached its minimum in the 1970s. Most extreme precipitation indices had periodic variations about 3 and 12 years, and the main cycle around 3 years has passed the test of 0.05 significance level. Apart from the CDD, which reduced dramatically with longitude and altitude and increased with latitude, most of the extreme precipitation indices increased with longitude and altitude and decreased with latitude.

Key words: extreme precipitation, climate change, Morlet wavelet analysis, Jilin Province

中图分类号:

P426.6

任景全, 郭春明, 刘玉汐, 王丽伟, 李琪. 1961-2015年吉林省极端降水指数时空变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(5): 1004-1011.

REN Jingquan, GUO Chunming, LIU Yuxi, WANG Liwei, LI Qi. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of extreme precipitation indices in Jilin Province from 1961 through 2015[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2017, 39(5): 1004-1011.

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1961-2015年吉林省极端降水指数时空变化特征

Spatiotemporal change characteristics of extreme precipitation indices in Jilin Province from 1961 through 2015

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