基于卫星气候资料的1989-2015年南北极海冰面积变化分析

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0129

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用被动微波卫星海冰密集度气候资料，分析了1989-2015年南北极海冰面积和密集度的长期变化趋势。结果表明：研究期内，北极年平均海冰面积减少，南极海冰面积增加，变化趋势分别为-0.569×10⁶ km²·（10a）^-1和0.327×10⁶ km²·（10a）^-1，均通过了0.01水平的显著性检验，两极海冰面积变化趋势表现出明显的"非对称性"。两极总海冰面积出现了下降，变化趋势为-0.242×10⁶ km²·（10a）^-1。年海冰密集度在北极地区普遍减少，而在南极地区的变化趋势存在显著的空间差异，威德尔海、罗斯海北部海冰密集度增加，趋势超过了10%·（10a）^-1，别林斯高晋海、阿蒙森海的海冰密集度出现下降。北极各月海冰面积的变化趋势存在明显的季节差异，7-10月海冰面积减少明显，其中9月减少最显著，趋势为-0.955×10⁶ km²·（10a）^-1。南北极海冰冻结和融化的时间不完全对应，北极融化与冻结时间基本平衡，南极海冰冻结时间明显长于融化时间。南极年内海冰面积的变化幅度大于北极，呈现显著的季节性特征。北极极小海冰面积的变化趋势最显著，达到了-0.636×10⁶ km²·（10a）^-1。南极极大海冰面积出现的时间后移明显，趋势为0.733候·（10a）^-1；极小海冰面积出现的时间非常稳定，没有明显的变化趋势。

关键词: 气候变化, 海冰, 北极, 南极, 卫星

Abstract: In this research, the trends of sea ice area (SIA) and concentrations in the Arctic and Antarctic from 1989 to 2015 were analyzed by using the climate data of passive microwave satellite sea ice concentrations (SIC). The results showed that the annual SIA had decreased in Arctic and increased in Antarctic. The ratios were -0.569×10⁶ km²·(10a)^-1 and 0.327×10⁶ km²·(10a)^-1, respectively, being significant at the 0.01 confidence level. The asymmetry of trends in the Arctic and Antarctic had been obvious. The total SIA had decreased, with a trend of -0.242×10⁶ km²·(10a)^-1. The trend of annual SIC had universally declined in the Arctic, but had been obviously spatial difference in the Antarctic. The SIC had increased in the north of Weddell Sea and Ross Sea with the rate more than 10%·(10a)^-1, but had decreased in Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea. There was obvious seasonal difference in monthly SIA variation in the Arctic. The SIA had obviously reduced from July to October, significantly in September, reaching -0.955×10⁶ km²·(10a)^-1. The sea ice freezing time and melting time had not completely corresponded between the Arctic and Antarctic; in the Arctic melting time and freezing time had been roughly balanced, but in the Antarctic freezing time had been significantly longer than melting time. Within a year, the variation of SIA in the Antarctic had been greater than that in the Arctic, showing significant seasonal characteristics. Changing in the minimum SIA in the Arctic had been most significant, reaching -0.636×10⁶ km²·(10a)^-1. The occurrence time of the maximum SIA in the Antarctic had moved backwards obviously, with the ratio of 0.733 pentad per decade; the occurrence time of the minimum SIA in the Antarctic had been very stable without any obvious tendency.

Key words: climate change, sea ice, Arctic, Antarctic, satellite

中图分类号:

P731.15

张雷, 徐宾, 师春香, 周自江, 任国玉. 基于卫星气候资料的1989-2015年南北极海冰面积变化分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(6): 1163-1171.

ZHANG Lei, XU Bin, SHI Chunxiang, ZHOU Zijiang, REN Guoyu. Analysis of sea ice area change in the Arctic and Antarctic based on the satellite climate data during 1989-2015[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2017, 39(6): 1163-1171.

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