四川省暴雨过程综合评估模型的研究及建立

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0148

冰川冻土 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 1336-1344.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0148

四川省暴雨过程综合评估模型的研究及建立

甘薇薇^1,3, 范江琳², 肖天贵⁴, 敬枫蓉⁴, 詹兆渝³, 汪丽²

1. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 四川成都 610071;
2. 四川省气象台, 四川成都 610071;
3. 四川省气候中心, 四川成都 610071;
4. 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院, 四川成都 610225

收稿日期:2016-10-27 修回日期:2017-12-18 出版日期:2017-12-25 发布日期:2018-04-03
通讯作者: 肖天贵,E-mail:xiaotiangui@cuit.edu.cn. E-mail:xiaotiangui@cuit.edu.cn
作者简介:甘薇薇(1986-),女,贵州贵阳人,工程师,2011年在云南大学获硕士学位,从事短期气候诊断及预测研究.E-mail:gww007@126.com.
基金资助:
中国气象局西南区域气象中心重大科研项目（西南区域2014-5）；国家自然科学基金项目（91337215；41575066）；国家科技支撑计划项目（2015BAC03B05）；公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201406015）资助

Research and establishment of a comprehensive evaluation model of rainstorm process in Sichuan Province

GAN Weiwei^1,3, FAN Jianglin², XIAO Tiangui⁴, JING Fengrong⁴, ZHAN Zhaoyu³, WANG Li²

1. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin, Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Institute of Plateau Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610071, China;
2. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610071, China;
3. Sichuan Climate Center, Chengdu 610071, China;
4. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China

Received:2016-10-27 Revised:2017-12-18 Online:2017-12-25 Published:2018-04-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1961-2013年四川省156个国家级气象观测站的逐日降水资料，按照暴雨过程的识别标准，统计得到851次暴雨过程。选取了4项适用于四川省天气气候特征的暴雨过程评价指标，依据历史重现期划分出各指标的等级标准，并利用欧氏距离函数建立了暴雨过程等级评估模型。为能全面反映整个暴雨过程的强度，构建了一个物理意义清晰的暴雨过程综合强度评估模型。该模型客观地考虑了4项指标的权重及其自身变率，对暴雨过程的描述更加科学。通过对历史暴雨过程进行评估分析，发现评估结果与历史灾害事件的记载在时间和强度上具有较好的一致性，评估效果理想，可满足四川省暴雨天气过程定量评估业务的需求。

关键词: 暴雨过程, 历史重现期, 综合强度, 评估模型, 四川

Abstract: According to a selection criteria of rainstorm process, there were 851 precipitation processes counted as rainstorm events by using the national meteorological observation from 156 stations in Sichuan Province during 1961-2013. Four indications, which were suitable for weather climate characteristics of the province, were selected to describe the torrential rain events. According to the historical return period and using the method of the Euclidean distance function, the rainstorm event evaluation model in Sichuan Province was established. A comprehensive evaluation model of the rainstorm process with clear physical significance was built to fully reflect the intensity of rainstorm process. The model has objectively considered the weight of the four indicators and their own changing rate, able to describe the process of rainstorm more scientifically. Through the evaluation and analysis of the historical rainstorm events, it is found that the evaluation result is consistent with the records of historical disasters in time and intensity. The evaluation effect is satisfactory, which can meet the demand of quantitative evaluation of rainstorm weather process in the province.

Key words: rainstorm process, historical return period, composite intensity, evaluation model, Sichuan

中图分类号:

P458.1+21.1

甘薇薇, 范江琳, 肖天贵, 敬枫蓉, 詹兆渝, 汪丽. 四川省暴雨过程综合评估模型的研究及建立[J]. 冰川冻土, 2017, 39(6): 1336-1344.

GAN Weiwei, FAN Jianglin, XIAO Tiangui, JING Fengrong, ZHAN Zhaoyu, WANG Li. Research and establishment of a comprehensive evaluation model of rainstorm process in Sichuan Province[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2017, 39(6): 1336-1344.

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四川省暴雨过程综合评估模型的研究及建立

Research and establishment of a comprehensive evaluation model of rainstorm process in Sichuan Province

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