天山南坡清水河与阿拉沟流域径流变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2017.0317

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 依据1956-2012年天山南坡清水河流域的克尔古提水文站以及阿拉沟流域的阿拉沟水文站资料，采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法和交叉小波变换法，分析了清水河与阿拉沟出山径流的趋势、突变、周期变化等特征，并进一步探讨了出山径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明：清水河与阿拉沟流域年径流量均呈上升趋势，其中1988年为径流突变年，该年前后年均径流变化态势不同，1988年以后径流升幅显著。同时，流域径流过程呈现多时间尺度的周期变化，以32 a以上大周期为主，2 a和8 a小周期变化为辅。因流域下垫面特征等差异，清水河出山径流对降水变化的响应程度强于阿拉沟，而阿拉沟出山径流对气温敏感性高于清水河。且受冰川径流调节作用与多年冻土退化的影响，阿拉沟径流过程对气温的滞后性强于清水河。

关键词: 径流过程, 气候变化, 天山, Mann-Kendall检验, 交叉小波变换

Abstract: Runoff in Xinjiang mainly comes from snow melt water and precipitation in the mountain regions. With global warming, glaciers and snow-capped mountains have been shrinking, which directly impact the mountain runoff and surrounding ecosystem. Due to the difference in geographical environment, the response of runoff to climate change is different from place to place in the south slopes of the Tianshan Mountains. Based on hydrological data (1956-2012) of the Qingshuihe River and Alagou River, the trend, mutation, variation period of the runoff and its response to climate change in the study watershed were analyzed using the methods of Mann-Kendall method and crossover wavelet transform. The results are as followed. Seasonal distribution of runoff is not uniform, with summer runoff accounting for more than half of the annual runoff in the Qingshuihe River and Alagou Rive. The annual runoff has been increasing significantly. The hydrological process had a turning point in 1988. After 1988, runoff in the Qingshuihe River has been in abundance state and the runoff in the Alagou River has increased significantly too, especially in 1996, owing to superposition of more precipitation and higher temperature. The annual runoff shows periodic change with various time scales, of which the main period is more than 32-year, and the small periods are 2-year or 8-year. There are some regional differences in response degree of mountain runoff to precipitation and temperature in the Qingshuihe River and Alagou River. The mountain runoff of the Qingshuihe River is more sensitive to precipitation change than that of Alagou River. The annual runoff variation of the Alagou River is controlled by temperature. The Alagou River runoff exhibits sensitivity to temperature higher than that in the Qingshuihe River. Owing to glacial runoff regulation and permafrost degradation, annual runoff process in the Alagou River shows a lag more than that in the Qingshuihe River.

Key words: runoff process, climate change, Tianshan Mountains, Mann-Kendall test, crossover wavelet transform

中图分类号:

P343.6

李玉平, 韩添丁, 沈永平, 蒲红铮. 天山南坡清水河与阿拉沟流域径流变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(1): 127-135.

LI Yuping, HAN Tianding, SHEN Yongping, PU Hongzheng. Characteristics of runoff variation and its response to climate change of Qingshuihe River and Alagou River watersheds in southern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2018, 40(1): 127-135.

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