黑龙江省冻土活动层厚度年际变化影响因素分析

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2018.0053

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 冻土活动层是冻土地区地层内水热交换最为活跃的区域，对气候与环境变化十分敏感。黑龙江省气候环境独特，冻土活动层受到地理位置（坡度、坡向及高程）、下垫面因素（地表土壤含水量、植被、积雪）及太阳辐射（地表反照率、土壤感热及潜热通量）等环境与气候变化的影响十分敏感。通过灰色关联、相关分析、趋势度检验、向量自回归模型发现：年内尺度上，冻土活动层厚度主要受到土壤含水量及植被的影响较大；年际尺度上，冻土活动层与积雪、植被、潜热通量呈负相关，并在不同的区域呈极显著负相关；与感热通量呈正相关，并在部分区域呈极显著正相关。近30 a来冻土活动层及各影响因素在各区域呈现不同的变化趋势，各影响因素对冻土活动层厚度影响程度不同，由高到低依次受到潜热、土壤含水量、植被、感热及雪深的影响，特别是潜热对冻土活动层厚度长期变化的贡献率达到35.09%。这种现象与东北地区独特且复杂的地理环境以及近30 a来各因素的变化关系密切。

Abstract: Permafrost active layer is the most active area of water and heat exchange in the stratum of permafrost and is very sensitive to climate and environmental change. Permafrost active layer in Heilongjiang Province is influenced by a variety of factors because of the unique climate. By using gray correlation degree, correlation analysis, trend degree test, vector autoregressive model, it is found that:(1) In general, seasonal depth is in close relationship with surface water content and vegetation. (2) In light of the annual variation of seasonal frozen depth, it is negatively correlated with snow, vegetation and latent heat flux and has a significant negative correlation in different regions. (3) It is positively correlating with the sensible heat flux, and Significantly in some areas. (4) In the past 30 years, the frozen layer depth and other factors has showed different trends; the change of the frozen depth has been affected by the latent heat, the surface water content, the vegetation, the heat and the snow depth; particularly, the contribution of latent heat to the long-term variation of seasonal frozen depth has reached 35.09%. This phenomenon may be caused by the unique and complex geographical environment in Northeast China and the variation of various factors in the past 30 years.

Key words: permafrost, active layer, correlation analysis, VAR model, grey relational analysis, Heilongjiang Province

中图分类号:

P642.14

尤明东, 李海波, 葛敏, 臧淑英. 黑龙江省冻土活动层厚度年际变化影响因素分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2018, 40(3): 480-491.

YOU Mingdong, LI Haibo, GE Min, ZANG Shuying. The influence factors of permafrost active layer depth and their annual change in Heilongjiang Province[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2018, 40(3): 480-491.

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