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冰川冻土 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 680-688.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2019.0033

• 寒旱区水文水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于风险度的青海省暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估

李万志1,2, 余迪1, 冯晓莉1, 张调风1,2   

  1. 1. 青海省气候中心, 青海 西宁 810001;
    2. 青海省防灾减灾重点实验室, 青海 西宁 810001
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-20 修回日期:2019-04-11 出版日期:2019-06-25 发布日期:2019-09-10
  • 通讯作者: 冯晓莉,E-mail:2393780621@qq.com. E-mail:2393780621@qq.com
  • 作者简介:李万志(1984-),男,内蒙古通辽人,工程师,2009年在南京信息工程大学获学士学位,从事气象灾害风险评估研究.E-mail:li_wanzhi@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    青海省科技计划项目"青海省未来气候变化对生态环境的可能影响及适应对策研究"(2019-ZJ-603);中国气象局气候变化专项"青藏高原东北部气候变化基础数据集研制"(CCSF201853);青海省气象局科研项目"青海省气候年景评估方法研究"资助

Risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disasters based on the hazard grades/indices in Qinghai Province

LI Wanzhi1,2, YU Di1, FENG Xiaoli1, ZHANG Tiaofeng1,2   

  1. 1. Qinghai Climate Center, Xining 810001, China;
    2. Qinghai Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention, Xining 810001, China
  • Received:2018-08-20 Revised:2019-04-11 Online:2019-06-25 Published:2019-09-10

摘要: 基于自然灾害风险原理,结合青海省气象数据、地理信息数据、社会经济数据,并利用主成分分析法、GIS自然断点法对青海省暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险度、承载体易损度评估模型以及暴雨洪涝灾害风险度进行评估,结果表明:青海省不同强度降水日数均呈增多趋势,新世纪以来中雨日数及强降水日数增加趋势尤为明显;暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险度呈由东南向西北降低的趋势,承载体易损度为东北部地区最高,南部以及西部地区最低;暴雨洪涝风险较高的地区主要集中在东部地区,互助、湟中、大通、西宁为高风险区,东部大部地区、环青海湖地区为较高风险区,西部地区为低风险区。该评估结果可以在气象灾害风险管理业务中进行应用,可以加强对暴雨洪涝灾害风险的影响程度及影响区域的判定,为地方防灾减灾救灾工作提供科学依据。

关键词: 暴雨洪涝灾害, 致灾因子, 承载体, 风险度, 风险评估

Abstract: Based on the natural disaster risk theory and the combination of meteorological data,geographic information and socioeconomic data,in this paper,aiming for evaluate the risk grade of the inducing factors,the vulnerability grade of the bearing body and the hazard grade of rainstorm flood disasters in Qinghai Province,the principal component analysis and GIS natural breakpoint method has been used. The results showed that:(1) the rain days of various grades are increasing in the province,especially for the moderate and heavy rain days at the beginning of the 21st century;(2)the risk grades of the rainstorm and flood disasters inducing factors are decreasing from southeast to northwest,and the highest vulnerability grade of the bearing body is in the northeastern area while the lowest vulnerability grades is in the southern and western regions;(3)the rainstorm and flood hazard areas are mainly located in the eastern part of the province,such as Huzhu,Huangzhong,Datong and Xining with highest risk and the eastern agricultural area and the area surrounding Qinghai Lake with higher risk, and the western part of the province with low risk of rainstorm and flood disasters. The assessment results can be applied in meteorological disaster risk management and can strengthen the judgment of the impact degree of storm and flood disaster risk and the affected area,useful for local disaster prevention and relief work.

Key words: rainstorm and flood disasters, disaster-inducing factors, carrying body, risk degree, risk assessment

中图分类号: 

  • P333.2