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冰川冻土 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 629-636.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2019.0038

• 寒区科学与技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

黑龙江省初霜冻变化特征研究及预测方法

张健1, 许丽玲2, 班晋1, 陆妍3, 王振2, 张春梅4   

  1. 1. 黑龙江省气候中心, 黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030;
    2. 漠河市气象局, 黑龙江 漠河 165300;
    3. 中国科学院 西北生态资源环境研究院, 甘肃 兰州 730000;
    4. 云南省安宁市气象局, 云南 安宁 650030
  • 收稿日期:2019-04-24 修回日期:2019-06-05 出版日期:2019-06-25 发布日期:2019-09-10
  • 作者简介:张健(1963-),女,黑龙江哈尔滨人,高级工程师,2005年在成都信息工程学院获学士学位,从事气候预测及气候变化研究.E-mail:zhch11@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2013M13);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-036)资助

Characteristics and prediction method of first frost of ground in Heilongjiang Province

ZHANG Jian1, XU Liling2, BAN Jin1, LU Yan3, WANG Zhen2, ZHANG Chunmei4   

  1. 1. Climate Center of Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150030, China;
    2. Meteorological Bureau of Mohe County, Mohe 165300, Heilongjiang, China;
    3. Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    4. Anning Meteorological Bureau, Anning 650030, Yunnan, China
  • Received:2019-04-24 Revised:2019-06-05 Online:2019-06-25 Published:2019-09-10

摘要: 利用黑龙江省1961-2013年地面测站62站资料和月环流特征量、北半球500 hPa高度场等资料,采用气候统计方法,选取秋季地面最低温度≤ 0℃的初日作为初霜冻日期,分析了初霜冻日期的时空变化特点,北半球500 hPa月平均环流演变特征,影响初霜冻早晚的特征量因子,为初霜冻趋势预测提供依据。结果表明:黑龙江省初霜冻日期呈现显著推迟的趋势,推迟约8.2 d,平均推迟5 d以上的年份均在1988年以后出现;平均初霜冻日期分布是由北开始出现并向南推进,平原则普遍晚于同纬度的山区,EOF分析初霜冻的发生除具有一致性气候特征外,还具有南北相反和东西相反的变化趋势;初霜冻偏早年时,北半球500 hPa环流从前期到同期在黑龙江省北部至极地区域有大范围的负距平,反之,若是正距平,初霜冻易偏晚;影响初霜冻早晚的特征量的因子有欧亚(亚洲)经向环流型、鄂霍茨克海高压、阿留申低压、东亚大槽强度以及西太平洋副热带高压、极涡、AO等。

关键词: 初霜冻, 变化特点, 环流特征, 影响因子

Abstract: Based on the data from 62 stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2013,monthly circulation characteristics and 50.hPa height field in the northern hemisphere,the first day of the lowest ground temperature ≤ 0℃ in autumn is selected as the first frost date by using climatic statistics method. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the first frost date,the monthly mean circulation evolution characteristics at 50.hPa in the northern hemisphere and the characteristic factors affecting the early frost and the late frost are analyzed,which provide the basis for forecasting the trend of the first frost. The results show that the first frost date in Heilongjiang Province shows a significant temporal postponement trend of about 8. 2 days. The year with an average delay of more than 5 days has appeared after 1988. Spatially,the first frost appears in the order from north to south and from plain to mountains along a latitude. EOF analysis shows that the occurrence of the first frost not only has the consistent climate characteristics,but also has opposite trend from north to south and from east to west. In the early first frost years,the 50.hPa circulation in the Northern Hemisphere has a large negative anomaly in the northern and polar regions of Heilongjiang Province from the early stage to the same period, and the cold air activity is frequent;on the contrary,if there is a positive deviation,the first frost is prone to be late. The characteristic factors affecting the early frost are the meridional circulation pattern in Eurasia(Asia), the Okhotsk high,the Aleutian low,the strength of the East Asian trough,the subtropical high in the Western Pacific,the polar eddy,AO and so on.

Key words: the first frost date, variation characteristics, circulation characteristics, influence factor

中图分类号: 

  • P423.4+1