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冰川冻土 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 884-891.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2019.0403

• 寒区科学与技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于激发条件和堆积体稳定性的冰川降雨型泥石流预警模型研究

谢涛1,2, 尹前锋3, 高贺1, 陈芳2, 慎乃齐1, 林达明2   

  1. 1. 中国地质大学 (北京)工程技术学院, 北京 100083;
    2. 新疆交通建设集团股份有限公司, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830026;
    3. 中国科学院大学 地球与行星科学学院, 北京 100049;
    4. 交通运输部 公路科学研究院, 北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2018-09-05 修回日期:2018-11-26 出版日期:2019-08-25 发布日期:2019-11-28
  • 通讯作者: 林达明,E-mail:dm.lin@rioh.cn. E-mail:dm.lin@rioh.cn
  • 作者简介:谢涛(1994-),男,安徽宿松人,2016年在安徽理工大学获学士学位,现为中国地质大学(北京)在读硕士研究生,从事地质灾害研究.E-mail:billow_xie@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    交通运输部建设科技项目(2014318365110);交通运输部科技示范工程项目(2016009)资助

Study on early warning model of glacial-rainfall debris flow based on excitation condition and stability of accumulation body

XIE Tao1,2, YIN Qianfeng3, GAO He1, CHEN Fang2, SHEN Naiqi1, LIN Daming2   

  1. 1. School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences(Beijing), Beijing 100083, China;
    2. Xinjiang Communications Construction Group Co. Ltd, Urumqi 830026, China;
    3. College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    4. Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2018-09-05 Revised:2018-11-26 Online:2019-08-25 Published:2019-11-28

摘要: 在全球变暖的背景下,冰川泥石流将进入高发期。分析了冰川泥石流成因,选取日最高温度、日降雨量、泥水位、地表位移、含水率作为泥石流监测预警指标。通过层次分析法确定了5个指标的权重,提出了基于激发条件和堆积体稳定性的冰川降雨型泥石流预警模型。应用该模型成功对天山公路K636冰川泥石流沟2017年7月14日爆发的泥石流进行了预警,证明该预警模型有一定的可靠性和实用价值,为冰川泥石流预警研究提供了一种新的参考。

关键词: 天山公路, 冰川降雨型泥石流, 层次分析法, 预警

Abstract: In the context of global warming,glacial debris flow disaster will be in a high-incidence season. In this paper,causes of the glacial debris flow are analyzed,and five indexes are selected as monitoring indexes of an early warning model,which are daily maximum temperature,daily rainfall,mud water level,surface displacement and water content,respectively. Analytic hierarchy process(AHP) is adopted to determine the weight of each index,and an early warning model of glacial debris flow is presented based on the excitation condition and stability of accumulation body. The early warning model has been successfully applied in a debris flow disaster,which broke out on July 14,2017 in the K636 glacial debris flow gully of Tianshan Highway, showing its reliability and practical value. The model will be useful also for the early warning research of glacial debris flow.

Key words: Tianshan Highway, glacial-rainfall debris flow, analytic hierarchy process(AHP), early warning

中图分类号: 

  • P642.23