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冰川冻土 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 681-692.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2019.0902

所属专题: 第二次青藏科考论文集1

• 冰冻圈与可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

中亚干旱区咸海面积变化与人类活动及气候变化的关联研究

杨雪雯1,2(), 王宁练1,2,3(), 陈安安1,2, 张伟4   

  1. 1.陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,陕西 西安 710127
    2.西北大学 城市与环境学院 地表系统与灾害研究院,陕西 西安 710127
    3.中国科学院 青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心,北京 100101
    4.中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2019-10-20 修回日期:2019-11-17 出版日期:2020-08-31 发布日期:2020-09-11
  • 通讯作者: 王宁练 E-mail:yxw_0117@163.com;nlwang@nwu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:杨雪雯(1996 - ), 女, 陕西延安人, 2017年在西北大学获学士学位, 现为西北大学在读硕士研究生, 从事气候变化与冰川水资源研究. E-mail: yxw_0117@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA20060201);中国科学院“一带一路”科技合作专项(131C11KYSB20160061);国家自然科学基金项目(41971083);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究专项(2019QZKK020102)

The relationship between area variation of the Aral Sea in the arid Central Asia and human activities and climate change

Xuewen YANG1,2(), Ninglian WANG1,2,3(), An’an CHEN1,2, Wei ZHANG4   

  1. 1.Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity,Xi’an 710127,China
    2.Institute of Earth Surface System and Hazards,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,China
    3.CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences,Beijing 100101,China
    4.State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China
  • Received:2019-10-20 Revised:2019-11-17 Online:2020-08-31 Published:2020-09-11
  • Contact: Ninglian WANG E-mail:yxw_0117@163.com;nlwang@nwu.edu.cn

摘要:

咸海是亚洲仅次于里海的第二大内陆咸水湖, 20世纪60年代以来湖泊面积急剧萎缩。基于1960 - 2018年咸海的面积数据、 CRU气温和降水数据以及咸海流域灌溉面积、 水库容量等资料, 定量分析了1960年以来咸海湖泊面积的变化情况, 并从气候变化与人类活动两方面探究了咸海面积变化的主要影响因素。结果表明: 1960 - 2018年咸海的面积由6.85×104 km2持续萎缩至(8.32±0.19)×103 km2, 共减少了(6.02±0.02)×104 km2(约87.85%), 其中1960 - 2009年面积萎缩了(5.94±0.02)×104 km2(约86.77%), 而在2009 - 2018年其面积萎缩速率明显放缓, 减少了740.04 km2(约8.17%)。统计结果显示, 1960年以来强烈的人类活动(主要表现为灌溉用水和水库储水量的持续增加)是导致咸海面积急剧萎缩的主要因素, 其对咸海面积变化的影响远大于气候变化。在中亚地区气候继续向暖湿变化的背景下, 咸海流域应尽快调整以农业灌溉为主的用水结构, 否则在上游冰川融水达到峰值后, 咸海可能面临干涸的危险。

关键词: 咸海, 面积变化, 气候变化, 冰川变化, 人类活动

Abstract:

Utilizing datasets of the Aral Sea area, global CRU meteorological data and the irrigation area and reservoir capacity, we quantitatively assessed the long-term area variation of the Aral Sea during the period of 1960 - 2018, and then investigated the dominant influence factors including climate change and human activities. It is revealed that area of the Aral Sea had shrunk dramatically from 6.85×104 km2 to (8.32±0.19)×103 km2 with a shrinkage of (6.02±0.02)×104 km2 (about 87.85%) from 1960 to 2018. The area of the Aral Sea had shrunk by (5.94±0.02)×104 km2 (about 86.77%) during the period of 1960 - 2009, while the shrinkage rate had slowed down obviously and the area had decreased by 740.04 km2 (about 8.17%) during the period of 2009 - 2018. The results of this statistical analysis show that the enhanced human activities since 1960, especially the increase of irrigation water consumption and reservoir capacity, is the dominant factor rendering the rapid shrinkage of the Aral Sea. Hence, water consumption, especially for irrigation should be adjusted to adapt on-going warming in the Aral Sea basin as soon as possible.

Key words: Aral Sea, area variation, climate change, glacier change, human activity

中图分类号: 

  • P343.3