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冰川冻土 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 357-367.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2020.0044

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国北方地区寒潮时空特征及其成因分析

乔雪梅(), 刘普幸()   

  1. 西北师范大学 地理与环境科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730070
  • 收稿日期:2019-06-03 修回日期:2020-03-22 出版日期:2020-08-31 发布日期:2020-09-11
  • 通讯作者: 刘普幸 E-mail:qiaoxm751228@163.com;liupx751228@163.com
  • 作者简介:乔雪梅(1995 - ), 女, 陕西榆林人, 2018年在宝鸡文理学院获学士学位, 现为西北师范大学在读硕士研究生, 从事干旱区域环境与绿洲建设研究. E-mail: qiaoxm751228@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41561080)

The temporal and spatial characteristics and genesis of cold wave in northern China

Xuemei QIAO(), Puxing LIU()   

  1. College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China
  • Received:2019-06-03 Revised:2020-03-22 Online:2020-08-31 Published:2020-09-11
  • Contact: Puxing LIU E-mail:qiaoxm751228@163.com;liupx751228@163.com

摘要:

基于中国北方地区269个站点1960 - 2017年逐日气温观测数据与大气环流指数等, 采用线性回归、 相关分析、 反距离加权法(IDW)及熵权法等方法, 探讨了近58年中国北方地区寒潮频次的时空变化特征及影响因素, 进而利用研究区耕地面积、 人均GDP、 农作物播种面积等社会经济统计数据, 从致灾因子、 孕灾环境、 承灾体易损性、 防灾减灾能力四个方面对中国北方地区寒潮进行风险区划分析。结果表明: 近58年来, 中国北方地区寒潮频次总体呈0.2次·(10a)-1的速率减少, 近58年研究区域共发生了159.7次寒潮, 其中冬季和十一月份寒潮频次最多。高频次出现在吉林省靖宇县、 安图县, 内蒙古阿尔山市、 苏尼特左旗、 苏尼特右旗, 频次高达508次以上, 平均每年8.8次, 最少寒潮频次出现在华北南部, 新疆喀什和阿克苏。不同等级寒潮频次差距较大, 一般寒潮频次最多, 共102.9次。一般寒潮、 较强寒潮、 强寒潮、 特强寒潮与寒潮频次在空间分布上比较相似, 大体呈由南向北增加的分布规律, 东北地区是寒潮的活跃区, 华北地区的活跃区在内蒙古中部, 西北地区寒潮活跃区主要在新疆阿勒泰地区。年尺度而言, 中国北方地区寒潮主要受CA、 APVII、 AO和APVAI的影响, 各季节影响因子有所差异, 春季寒潮主要受CQ和CA的影响, 秋季寒潮与APVII、 CA、 AO关系显著, 冬季寒潮与APVII、 CA、 AO、 SHI均达到显著相关关系。综合风险区划结果表明, 新疆阿勒泰地区、 黑龙江大兴安岭地区、 吉林省东南部以及山东省为寒潮发生的高风险区, 低风险区分布在新疆阿克苏和喀什地区, 与寒潮频次空间分布相吻合。

关键词: 寒潮频次, 时空特征, 影响因素, 风险区划, 中国北方

Abstract:

Based on the observation data of daily temperature of 269 sites and atmospheric circulation index in northern China from 1960 to 2017, linear regression, correlation analysis, inverse distance interpolation (IDW) and entropy weight method are used to, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of cold wave frequency in northern China in the last 58 years and its causes were discussed, and then using the socio-economic statistics such as cultivated land area, per capita GDP and sown area of crops in the study area, the risk regionalization of cold wave in northern China was evaluated and analyzed from four aspects, including risk factors, environmental sensitivity, carrier vulnerability, disaster prevention and reduction ability. The results show that in the last 58 years, the frequency of cold wave in northern China decreased 0.20 times per 10 years, a total of 159.7 cold tides occurred in the last 58 years, of which the frequency of cold wave in winter and November was the most, and the maximum frequency appears in Jingyu County, Antu County of Jilin Province, Aershan City, Sonid Left Banner, Sonid Right Banner of Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, frequency up to 508 times, an average of 8.8 times a year, the minimum frequency of cold waves occurred in the south of north China, Kashi and Akesu City of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region. There is a big difference in the frequency of cold wave in different grades, the general cold wave frequency is the most, total 102.9 times, the general cold wave, the stronger cold wave, the strong cold wave and extra-heavy cold wave is similar to the cold wave frequency in spatial distribution, and generally shows the distribution law of increasing from south to north. The northeast region is the active region of cold wave, the northwest active region of cold wave is mainly in Aletai of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region, the North China active region is in central Inner Mongolia Autonomous region. On annual scale, the cold wave in northern China was dominated by CA, APVII, AO and APVAI, while the influence factors among seasons were detected, spring cold wave is mainly affected by CQ and CA, and the autumn cold wave was significantly correlated with APVII, CA and AO, while winter cold wave was significantly correlated with APVII, CA, AO and SHI. The comprehensive risk regionalization shows that the Aletai region of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region, the Daxinganling region of Heilongjiang Province, the southeast of Jilin Province and Shandong Province are the high risk areas of cold wave occurrence, and the low risk areas are mainly distributed in Akesu and Kashi City of Xinjiang, it is consistent with the spatial distribution of cold wave frequency.

Key words: cold wave frequency, temporal and spatial characteristics, influencing factor, risk division, northern China

中图分类号: 

  • P425.5+4