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冰川冻土 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4): 1060-1072.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2021.0071

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1951—2016年中亚努尔苏丹与乌鲁木齐寒潮过程频数变化及其主要影响因子对比分析

段均泽1,2(), 毛炜峄1(), 黄迤静3, 陈静1, 迪丽努尔·托列吾别克1, 姚俊强1, 沈永平4   

  1. 1.中国气象局 乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
    2.新疆气候中心, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
    3.博州气象局, 新疆 博尔塔拉 833400
    4.中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院, 甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2019-09-03 修回日期:2020-07-29 出版日期:2021-08-31 发布日期:2021-09-09
  • 通讯作者: 毛炜峄 E-mail:djz8310@163.com;mao6991@vip.sina.com
  • 作者简介:段均泽, 高级工程师, 主要从事短期气候预测、 监测和气候变化研究. E-mail: djz8310@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划“气候变暖背景下极端强降温形成机理和预测方法研究”项目“多因子对极端强降温过程的协同作用和多时间尺度影响机理”课题(2018YFC1505602);中亚大气科学研究基金项目“中亚北部典型城市寒潮活动变化特征对比研究”(CAAS201807)

Comparison and analyses on climate characteristics of the cold wave in Nursultan and Urumqi, Central Asia during 1951—2016

Junze DUAN1,2(), Weiyi MAO1(), Yijing HUANG3, Jing CHEN1, Tuoliewubieke DILINUER1, Junqiang YAO1, Yongping SHEN4   

  1. 1.Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China
    2.Xinjiang Climate Center,Urumqi 830002,China
    3.Bozhou Meteorological Bureau,Bortala 833400,Xinjiang,China
    4.Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China
  • Received:2019-09-03 Revised:2020-07-29 Online:2021-08-31 Published:2021-09-09
  • Contact: Weiyi MAO E-mail:djz8310@163.com;mao6991@vip.sina.com

摘要:

利用1951—2016年努尔苏丹和乌鲁木齐的逐日最低气温资料, 以当年7月到翌年6月为统计年, 对比分析了中亚地区的努尔苏丹与乌鲁木齐的寒潮、 强寒潮和超强寒潮过程频数气候变化特征, 并初步分析了冬季北极涛动(AO)、 北大西洋涛动(NAO)与中亚两个城市同期寒潮活动关系。结果显示: 努尔苏丹的年平均寒潮过程频数(15.7次·a-1)是乌鲁木齐(4.1次·a-1)的3.88倍, 强寒潮和超强寒潮过程频数分别是乌鲁木齐的5.91倍和7.55倍; 努尔苏丹的超强寒潮过程频数月分布呈单峰型, 1月最多, 乌鲁木齐的呈双峰型, 峰值分别出现在11月和4月。努尔苏丹的寒潮过程持续日数普遍比乌鲁木齐短。65 a来, 努尔苏丹与乌鲁木齐的春季寒潮过程频数之间的相关关系显著。努尔苏丹和乌鲁木齐的年寒潮过程频数的线性递减率分别为-0.111次·(10a)-1和-0.445次·(10a)-1; 两城市秋、 冬、 春季寒潮、 强寒潮和超强寒潮过程频数线性趋势大多以递减为主, 但是努尔苏丹冬季和乌鲁木齐春季的超强寒潮过程频数均呈递增趋势。努尔苏丹的年超强寒潮过程频数在近5 a最多。努尔苏丹的年寒潮过程频数序列有31 a、 20 a左右的显著周期, 乌鲁木齐的年寒潮过程频数序列有39 a、 8 a左右显著周期。北大西洋涛动(NAO)与努尔苏丹和乌鲁木齐寒潮过程的关联程度比北极涛动(AO)与它们之间的关联程度更为密切; 努尔苏丹的寒潮过程频数受NAO以及AO的影响程度更深。

关键词: 寒潮过程频数, AO, NAO, 努尔苏丹, 乌鲁木齐

Abstract:

Using the daily minimum temperature of Nursultan and Urumqi from 1951 to 2016, the characteristics of cold waves were compared and the relationship between Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the cold wave in two cities were analyzed. From this July to next June was regarded as a statistic year in this paper.The results show that: (1) The average annual cold wave frequency of Nursultan (15.7 times·a-1) is 3.88 times that of Urumqi (4.1 times·a-1), strong cold wave and super cold wave is 5.91 and 7.55 times, respectively. The distribution of the super cold wave in Nursultan is unimodal, the most in January, and the Urumqi is bimodal, with peaks appearing in November and April. The cold wave process in Nursultan is generally shorter than Urumqi. (2) There was a significant correlation between Nursultan and Urumqi in recent 65 years. The annual frequency linear decline rates of the cold wave in Nursultan and Urumqi are -0.111 times·(10a)-1 and -0.445 times·(10a)-1, respectively. The linear trend of cold wave, strong and super cold wave frequencies were decline, except winter in Nursultan and spring in Urumqi. The cold wave in Nursultan is most frequent in the last 5 years, and it has a significant period with 31 years and 20 years. The frequency of the annual cold wave in Urumqi has a significant period of around 39 years and 8 years. (3) The NAO is more closely related to the cold wave of Nursultan and Urumqi than the AO. The frequency of the cold wave in Nursultan is more affected by NAO and AO.

Key words: cold wave process, Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Nursultan, Urumqi

中图分类号: 

  • P461