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冰川冻土 ›› 2023, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (2): 497-508.doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2023.0038

• 冰冻圈与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于OGGM模型的萨吾尔山冰川面积和储量预估

赵卫博1,2(), 李忠勤1,3,4(), 牟建新1, 李宏亮1,2, 杨淑静1,2, 徐春海1   

  1. 1.中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室 天山冰川观测试验站,甘肃 兰州 730000
    2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    3.西北师范大学 地理与环境科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730070
    4.石河子大学 理学院,新疆 石河子 832003
  • 收稿日期:2022-12-31 修回日期:2023-04-11 出版日期:2023-04-25 发布日期:2023-08-28
  • 通讯作者: 李忠勤 E-mail:zhaoweibo21@mails.ucas.ac.cn;lizq@lzb.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:赵卫博,博士研究生,主要从事冰川变化模拟研究. E-mail: zhaoweibo21@mails.ucas.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk0701)

Projection of glacier area and volume in the Sawir Mountains modeled by the OGGM

Weibo ZHAO1,2(), Zhongqin LI1,3,4(), Jianxin MU1, Hongliang LI1,2, Shujing YANG1,2, Chunhai XU1   

  1. 1.Tianshan Glaciological Station,State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China
    2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
    3.College of Geography and Environment Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China
    4.College of Sciences,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832003,Xinjiang,China
  • Received:2022-12-31 Revised:2023-04-11 Online:2023-04-25 Published:2023-08-28
  • Contact: Zhongqin LI E-mail:zhaoweibo21@mails.ucas.ac.cn;lizq@lzb.ac.cn

摘要:

基于全球开放冰川模型(OGGM),结合第六次气候模式比较计划(CMIP6),在5种气候模式(BCC-CSM2-MR、CESM2、CESM2-WACCM、FGOALS-f3-L、NorESM2-MM)模拟的3种气候情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5)下,系统分析了萨吾尔山冰川2020—2100年间面积和储量的变化。结果显示,3种气候情景下,萨吾尔山冰川面积和储量都呈现退缩趋势,其中SSP5-8.5气候情景下的冰川面积和储量损失最大,对应面积和储量变化为-0.154 km2·a-1和-5.11×106 m3·a-1,其次是SSP2-4.5,对应面积和储量变化为-0.150 km2·a-1和-5.05×106 m3·a-1,SSP1-2.6气候情景下面积和储量损失最小,面积和储量变化为-0.139 km2·a-1和-4.93×106 m3·a-1。萨吾尔山中国境内冰川面积和储量变化要大于哈萨克斯坦境内,其中冰川面积变化基本符合从相对平稳到快速变化,最后再放缓的过程,但是储量变化相对平缓。2020—2050年间,萨吾尔山冰川主要以冰川减薄为主;2050—2100年间,该地区冰川主要以冰川面积退缩为主。截至2060年,萨吾尔山47.8%的冰川将会退缩,该比例在2080年将上升至78.2%。

关键词: 萨吾尔山, 冰川面积, 冰川储量, OGGM, CMIP6, 预估

Abstract:

Based on the Global Open Glacier Model (OGGM) in conjunction with the Sixth Climate Model Comparison Program (CMIP6), three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) simulated by five climate models (BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2, CESM2-WACCM, FGOALS-f3-L, NorESM2-MM), the changes in the area and reserves of Sawir Mountains glaciers during 2020—2100 were systematically analyzed. The results show that under the three climate scenarios, the area and volume of glaciers in Sawir Mountains show a shrinking trend, and the glacier area and volume loss under the SSP5-8.5 high forcing scenario is the largest, and the corresponding changes in area and volume are -0.154 km2·a-1 and -5.11×106 m3·a-1, followed by the SSP2-4.5 medium forcing scenario, the corresponding area and volume changes are -0.150 km2·a-1 and -5.05×106 m3·a-1, the SSP1-2.6 low forcing scenario has the smallest area and volume loss, and the area and volume change is -0.139 km2·a-1 and -4.93×106 m3·a-1. The changes in glacier area and volume in the Sawir Mountains in China are greater than those in Kazakhstan. The changes in glacier area basically conform to the process from relatively stable to rapid changes, and finally slow down, but the changes in volume are relatively flat. Between 2020 and 2050, glacier thinning will dominate in the Sawir Mountains; between 2050 and 2100, glacier retreat will dominate in the area of the region. By 2060, 47.8% of the glaciers on Sawir Mountains will have retreated, and this proportion will rise to 78.2% by 2080.

Key words: Sawir Mountains, glacier area, glacier volume, OGGM, CMIP6, projection

中图分类号: 

  • P343.6