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冰川冻土 ›› 2001, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (3): 328-322.

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    

黄河上游宁蒙河段气温变化对凌情影响的分析

康玲玲, 王云璋, 陈发中, 王国庆, 李皓冰   

  1. 黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院, 河南, 郑州, 450003
  • 收稿日期:2001-01-12 修回日期:2001-04-25 出版日期:2001-08-25 发布日期:2012-04-26
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(59739170)资助

Analysis on Effect of Air Temperature on Ice Jam Floods at Ningmeng Reaches of the Yellow River

KANG Ling-ling, WANG Yun-zhang, CHENG Fa-zhong, WANG Guo-qing, LI Hao-bing   

  1. Institute of Hydraulic Research, YRCC, Zhengzhou Henan 450003, China
  • Received:2001-01-12 Revised:2001-04-25 Online:2001-08-25 Published:2012-04-26

摘要: 利用1984-1998年冬季(11月至翌年3月)各月气温资料,研究了气温的时空分布规律、变化特点及其与宁蒙河段凌情的关系.根据磴口、包头与托克托站的日平均气温,建立了气温特征值与部分凌情特征量的关系式,分析了气温变化和其它因素对凌情的影响.

关键词: 凌情, 气温变化, 时空分布, 宁蒙河段

Abstract: Using the data of air temperature during winter(Nov.~Mar.) of 1954-1998, spatial and temporal air temperature distribution and variation are analyzed, and the statistic relationship of ice jam floods and air temperature at Ningmeng reaches of Yellow River were established. Probabilistically based linear regression, discriminate function analysis, and empirical cluster-type analyses, In this paper, the use of logistic regression to predict breakup ice jam occurrence is presented, with an example application for the Ningmeng reaches of the Yellow River. And the effect of air temperature variation and other factors on ice flood was analyzed.

Key words: ice jams flooding, air temperature, spatial and temporal distribution, Ningmeng reaches of Yellow River

中图分类号: 

  • P338+.4