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冰川冻土 ›› 2002, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (4): 426-432.

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化适应对策的评价方法和工具

殷永元   

  1. 加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚大学可持续发展研究所, 加拿大
  • 收稿日期:2002-05-10 修回日期:2002-07-11 出版日期:2002-08-25 发布日期:2012-04-26
  • 基金资助:
    AIACC项目"气候变化对中国西部地区影响的脆弱性和适应性综合评价"(AS25)项目资助

Adaptation Evaluation Tools and Analysis Methods for Climate Change

YIN Yong-yuan   

  1. Sustainable Development Research Institute, British Colombia University, Canada
  • Received:2002-05-10 Revised:2002-07-11 Online:2002-08-25 Published:2012-04-26

摘要: 气候变化影响和适应对策方法评估的研究目的主要是建立和应用先进有效的分析工具和评价方法对气候变化脆弱性和适应对策进行科学评估.因此需要了解当前已经在自然资源和环境研究中广泛使用的决策分析工具,掌握和了解各种适应对策评估工具的关键特性及其优缺点.首先介绍各种有关适应对策的定义及两大类适应评估方法途径,同时举例介绍不同方法在气候变化影响和适应评估研究中的应用.常规的适应对策评估分析主要以政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)气候变化影响和适应对策评估技术指南中的方法工具为代表,另一种适应对策研究则致力于改善各种对气候变化敏感系统的适应能力和复原能力.文中对各种适应对策评估方法和工具进行了介绍和讨论,并提出气候变化适应研究的新方向。

关键词: 气候变化, 适应对策, 评价工具, 研究框架

Abstract: The main purpose of the research work on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation methodologies is to identify and apply the best available methods in climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments. A first step of this type of research is to understand the current use and availability of such adaptation evaluation tools. This paper describes a wide range of decision tools that have been used across and within different natural resources and socioeconomic sectors. The paper provides readers with key information about available tools, special features of each tool, and the strengths and weakness of different tools.By focusing on adaptation evaluation tools or methods, this paper first presents a range of adaptation concepts and definitions. This is followed by a brief introduction of two broad categories of adaptation evaluation: adaptations with impact assessment and the evaluation of adaptations in policy analysis. Then, some examples of the conventional approach in dealing with issues related to climate change impacts and adaptation studies are presented.An alternative approach aimed at improving adaptability and resilience of various systems sensitive to climate change, and strengthening system sustainability is also presented for comparison. Various methods or tools for evaluating adaptation options will then be reviewed and discussed. This review of adaptation evaluation tools leads to the conclusion that it is necessary to discover and pursue new directions that are essential if the impacts and adaptation studies are to remain relevant in sustainability decision making.This paper also presents in some detail an integrated approach that integrates climate change impact assessment/vulnerability identification, adaptation option evaluation, and multi-stakeholder participation. In the fourth part, the paper discusses some new direction and its research framework advised by UNEP .

Key words: climate change, adaptation, tools for evaluation, research framework

中图分类号: 

  • F062.2