基于灰色概率的非突发性环境风险度量化方法

冰川冻土 ›› 2002, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (4): 433-437.

基于灰色概率的非突发性环境风险度量化方法

胡国华^1,2, 夏军²

1. 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 湖南, 长沙, 410081;
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京, 100101

收稿日期:2002-05-02 修回日期:2002-06-25 出版日期:2002-08-25 发布日期:2012-04-26
基金资助:
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KXCX-SW-317)资助

Quantification Method for Level of Non-sudden Environmental Risk Based on Grey Probability

HU Guo-hua^1,2, XIA Jun²

1. College of Resources and Environmental Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha Hunan 410081; China;
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2002-05-02 Revised:2002-06-25 Online:2002-08-25 Published:2012-04-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以概率论和灰色系统理论方法为基础,利用灰色概率、灰色概率分布、灰色期望及灰色方差等基本概念,针对环境系统的随机不确定性和灰色不确定性,建立了基于灰色概率的非突发性环境风险度的量化方法.将非突发性环境风险归因于环境系统的随机不确定性和灰色不确定性,将影响环境容量和环境负荷耗用量的变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布,并用具有灰色概率形式的环境风险度来量化环境系统的非突发性失效风险性.最后,将具有灰色概率形式的环境风险度转化成一般的系统失效风险率,进而用改进一阶二矩法进行计算.作为算例给出了该方法应用于嘉陵江苍溪段有机污染风险度的估算。

关键词: 灰色不确定性, 灰色概率, 灰色概率分布, 环境风险度, 环境容量

Abstract: The concepts of grey probability, grey probability distribution, grey probability density, grey expectation and grey variance are applied based on the theory of probability and grey system approach. Directing towards stochastic and grey uncertainties of environmental system, a method for determining the level of non-sudden environmental risk is presented based on the concept of grey probability. In this method, the non-sudden environmental risk is attributed to stochastic uncertainty and grey uncertainty of environmental system. The variables influencing on environmental capacity and the consumption of environmental discharge are treated with grey probability distributions, and the non-sudden hazard of environmental system is quantified with the level of environmental risk expressed in the form of grey probability. The level of environmental risk can be transformed into ordinary probabilistic environmental risk and computed using advanced first-order second-moment method. An example of application for calculating the risks of organic pollute in the Cangxi reach of the Jialing River is given. The results can fully reflect and quantify the stochastic and grey uncertainties influencing on environmental quality.

Key words: grey uncertainty, grey probability, grey probability distribution, level of environmental risk, environmental capacity

中图分类号:

F062.2

胡国华, 夏军. 基于灰色概率的非突发性环境风险度量化方法[J]. 冰川冻土, 2002, 24(4): 433-437.

HU Guo-hua, XIA Jun. Quantification Method for Level of Non-sudden Environmental Risk Based on Grey Probability[J]. JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY AND GEOCRYOLOGY, 2002, 24(4): 433-437.

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